Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Biden's warning

If the prospect of an Obama presidency doesn't make you nervous, Joe Biden's latest comments, reported by ABC News, may change the way you feel:
"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you--not financially to help him--we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

As Commentary's Jennifer Rubin notes, this adds up to a pretty good argument for electing a president who is experienced and tough--i.e., John McCain. "This is material for an ad that's a lot more credible than Hillary Clinton's '3 a.m.' ad," observes Rubin. "That one came from his arguably frantic opponent–this one is from his running mate."

Which brings us to yesterday's Obama endorsement from Colin Powell on "Meet the Press." Sour conservatives have noted that endorsements don't generally make much of a difference; that Powell, in making his endorsement so late, when Obama seems a nearly certain winner, is not exactly a profile in political courage; and that Powell has never been much of a Republican to begin with.

All this is true (although this column dissociates itself from the assertion by bitter conservatives that Powell is acting merely out of racial solidarity). Powell is essentially a weathervane, and you don't need one to see which way the wind is blowing. Nonetheless, Powell's endorsement is useful to Obama, particularly at this juncture.

What Powell offers is reassurance. As a military man who has never sought elective office, he stands above politics. His Republican credentials are weak, but that makes him more of a nonpartisan figure. He is a man of the establishment--and if he supports Obama, that will assuage the doubts of some voters who still worry that the young senator is either unready or radical.

Biden's comments yesterday, by contrast, make one wonder why Obama chose as his running mate someone with a propensity for running off his mouth. (We assume it was not because we said we'd find it entertaining.)

In an odd way, Biden's gaffe is reassuring, too. It suggests that the Democrats are not really naive enough to believe that if Obama is elected, everyone will like America again and the world will stop being dangerous.




Yesterday we noted that Joe Biden had warned supporters in Seattle that he expects a major crisis to strike during the first six months of an Obama administration, told them that he expects Obama's response to the crisis to be unpopular, and exhorted them to be prepared to stand by him, even if he appears to be wrong.

Hugh Hewitt thinks he knows what Biden has in mind:

Biden has been receiving the sorts of briefings that nominees receive, and he's been to the sort of meetings where our allies talk candidly of the gathering storm they see coming closer.
And Biden suspects that Obama will react to the coming crisis in a way that demoralizes the country and which shatters public confidence in Obama.
Biden dismisses the ability of the American military to deal with far flung threats, tells the audience "Mark my words," and then preemptively implores them to "be prepared to stick with us," after telling them "we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him."
The most obvious interpretation of this ramble is that an Iran-Israel confrontation is coming, and that if Obama is president, America will sit it out with, at best, words that do nothing to support Israel or deter Iran.

Biden's meaning is nowhere near as clear to us as it is to Hewitt. According to ABC News, which reported the comments, Biden said, "I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," and he "emphasized that the mountainous Afghanistan-Pakistan border is of particular concern."

But let's apply what Biden said to a hypothetical confrontation between Israel and Iran. We'd say Hewitt's reading is a plausible one, but so is the opposite reading. Today, at least, there is little public appetite for another war, and this is especially true among Obama's supporters. Maybe he is preparing them for the necessity of a military strike against Iran, or some other muscular response to a crisis that would make Obama unpopular among the MoveOnCodePink crowd (and that might not immediately overcome the skepticism of hawkish Republicans about whether Obama is strong enough).

The real point here is that we don't know, and some elaboration from Biden of just what he has in mind would be useful for voters who have yet to make up their minds. Could we trouble Biden's traveling press to press him for some answers?



We realize we are at risk of sounding like a broken record, but that Biden comment--which we noted Monday and wrote about again yesterday--is really bothering us. And not just us. In a column for the New York Post, Kirstin Powers, a Democrat, says the media's "scattered coverage" of Joe Biden's disturbing remarks reflect an "incredible bias." Powers and NewsBusters.org both note that even Dan Rather said, "Certainly if Sarah Palin had said this it would be above the fold in most newspapers today."

CBS News reports that Barack Obama pooh-poohed his running mate's comments: "You know I think that Joe sometimes engages in rhetorical flourishes." Or, to put it another way: "We're gonna have an international crisis. . . . It's not gonna be apparent initially . . . that we're right." Only words!

The idea that America's adversaries are likely to test a new administration is not shocking. It seems prudent to prepare for such an eventuality. What's disturbing about Biden's remarks is that he seems to anticipate a domestic crisis of sorts as well--that Obama's response to the crisis will be unpoular among the public, or some segment of it, and that his backers will simply have to have faith. But Biden gives us no clue as to what he thinks Obama will do that will prompt a backlash--or which segment of the public he expects to lash back. To hear Biden tell it, a vote for Obama is a vote for God-and-Joe-Biden-only-know-what.

In the absence of clarity from Biden and Obama, people have begun speculating as to what may lie in store. The Boston Globe reports that in a speech yesterday, Palin picked up on the Biden remarks:

Yesterday in Reno, Nev., Palin told supporters, "I guess we gotta say, 'Well, thanks for the warning, Joe.' " She then imagined the "crisis scenarios," based on what she described as Obama's foreign policy agenda: his pledge to meet with rogue leaders without preconditions, though he has amended that vow; and Obama saying he would go into the tribal areas of Pakistan to go after Osama bin Laden if the Pakistani government wouldn't, though Palin has supported a similar policy.
"Crisis scenario number three," she said, is that Obama's plan for withdrawing US combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office would leave "some 25 million Iraqis at the mercy of Iranian-supported Shi'ite extremists and Al Qaeda in Iraq" and could force US troops to return.
Palin asserted that after the Russian invasion of Georgia in August, "Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence," which could encourage Russia to invade Ukraine next. "That would be crisis scenario number four," she said.
"But I guess the looming crisis that most worries the Obama campaign right now is Joe Biden's next speaking engagement. Let's call that crisis number five," Palin said as supporters laughed uproariously.

But this is not a joke--well, OK, it's not just a joke. There really could be an international crisis--or more than one--in the early days of a new administration, and more specificity about this Biden warning would be helpful in evaluating whether an Obama presidency is too risky--or whether we should take comfort that his instincts would be the right ones.

The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz points to one possible crisis:

Senior Tehran officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, a senior Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in London.
The official, Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, said recent threats by Israeli authorities strengthened this position, but that as of yet, a preemptive strike has not been integrated into Iranian policy.

The Ha'aretz report does not discuss the U.S. response to a possible Iranian strike against Israel, although Safavi does say "that a victory by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama would pave the way for dialogue with Washington, while a John McCain presidency would bolster Iran's extreme right, which opposes dialogue."

Yesterday we noted Hugh Hewitt's theory that Biden was warning that an Obama administration would not support Israel in a confrontation with Iran. We noted that Biden's remark was open to multiple interpretation and asked for clarification for voters' sake. Reader Ray Hendel observes: "What may be more important is a clarification so Iran does not interpret Biden's remarks the way Hugh Hewitt does and see it as a green light."

Meanwhile, "IJane," a contributor to the Hillary Clinton Forum, a dead-ender Web site, speculates that Obama's response to whatever crisis arises will be to impose a military draft. She quotes from Obama's comment at a widely ignored Columbia University forum last month:

But it's also important that a president speaks to military service as an obligation not just of some, but of many. You know, I traveled, obviously, a lot over the last 19 months. And if you go to small towns, throughout the Midwest or the Southwest or the South, every town has tons of young people who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. That's not always the case in other parts of the country, in more urban centers. And I think it's important for the president to say, this is an important obligation. If we are going into war, then all of us go, not just some.

Let's throw this open and see if we can shed some light on Biden's mysterious and troubling remark. If you have an idea of what he meant, email us at opinionjournal@wsj.com. We'll compile the best ones and include them in a column soon. If Obama and Biden won't tell us what they mean, maybe we can figure it out ourselves.

Iran's Preconditions: So much for Obama's diplomacy.

Barack Obama's declaration that, if elected, he would be willing to sit down and talk to Iran "without preconditions" has been widely discussed in this country. It's a key policy difference between him and John McCain, who rejects unconditional talks with Tehran.

So what does the Islamic Republic think? The enterprising reporters at the state news agency recently asked a high-ranking official for his opinion on talks with the U.S. As it turns out, Iran has its own "preconditions" and they don't suggest a diplomatic breakthrough, or even a summit, anytime soon.

Mehdi Kalhor, Vice President for Media Affairs, said the U.S. must do two things before summit talks can take place. First, American military forces must leave the Middle East -- presumably including such countries as Iraq, Qatar, Turkey and anywhere else American soldiers are deployed in the region. Second, the U.S. must cease its support of Israel. Until Washington does both, talks are "off the agenda," the Islamic Republic News Agency reports. It quotes Mr. Kalhor as saying, "If they [the U.S.] take our advice, grounds for such talks would be well prepared.

Iran is one of the toughest and most urgent foreign policy problems the new U.S. Administration will face. If Mr. Obama ends up in the Oval Office on January 20, he may find that solving it will take more than walking into a room and talking to Iranians "without preconditions."

The Increasingly Erratic, Super-Gaffetastic Joe Biden Be afraid. Be very afraid.

26th Turkey Roll Bicycle Rally

Saturday, November 22, 2008, 09:00 AM
North Texas State Fair Grounds
2217 N Carroll Blvd
Denton, TX 76201
Riders may choose from among three courses: 23, 35, and 71 miles in length. The 71-mile will still provide four beautifully scenic crossings of Lake Ray Roberts, however, a detour will be offered to shorten this ride to 100K.
http://www.active.com/images/upimages/2008_TRBR_Logo_Active.jpg

Monday, October 20, 2008

"We're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy"

If the prospect of an Obama presidency doesn't make you nervous, Joe Biden's latest comments, reported by ABC News, may change the way you feel:

"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you--not financially to help him--we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

After speaking for just over a quarter of an hour, Biden noticed the media presence in the back of the small ballroom.

"I probably shouldn't have said all this because it dawned on me that the press is here," he joked.


As Commentary's Jennifer Rubin notes:

Well, golly, if Obama is so untested that we will have a series of international crises — at the very time we are in a financial meltdown — which will make the Cuban Missille Crisis look like a walk in the park, shouldn’t we vote for the other guy who will keep all the miscreants in their place? Now, maybe we should rest easy because, according to Biden, “I’ve forgotten more about foreign policy than most of my colleagues know, so I’m not being falsely humble with you.” (Maybe Hezbollah’s occupation of Lebanaon was one of the things he forgot.)

Something tells me this is material for an ad that’s a lot more credible than Hillary Clinton’s “3 a.m.” ad. That one came from his arguably frantic opponent–this one is from his running mate.

UPDATE:

Rudy Giuliani and Randy Scheunemann, McCain-Palin Foreign Policy Adviser, just completed a media call on the Joe Biden comments. Scheunemann invoked Michael Kinsley — a gaffe is when a politician is caught speaking the truth. Giuliani dubbed the remarks “extraordinary” and said that he never recalled a VP candidate announcing that electing his candidate would provoke multiple challeneges to test his mettle. Giuliani suggested that Biden must “continue to harbor serious doubts” about Barack Obama’s readiness to be commander-in-chief.

At the conclusion of the call, both McCain surrogates urged the press to start asking Biden what he meant. Giuliani remarked that only Biden knows for sure what he meant, but that Biden’s remarks that the Obama camp would need the support of the top donors because they might not “get it right in a crisis. . . totally baffles me.” They both observed that, had a Republican made the remarks, it would be on the front page of the New York Times.

Bottom line: the mega-gaffe came at a remarkably good moment for McCain. The McCain camp certainly hopes it will have as great or greater an impact as the Colin Powell endorsement. But given the MSM declared priority–getting The One elected–I suspect they won’t be staying up late to check the Gray Lady’s front page for Tuesday.


Friday, October 17, 2008

How Obama Would Stifle Drug Innovation. If you want cutting-edge health care, don't make it a cost-controlled commodity.

How Washington Can Help Alaska Drill. Three years in, Shell is still waiting to recover a single barrel of oil.

Another 'Deregulation' Myth

Most Pundits Are Wrong About the Bubble. The repeal of Glass-Steagall has helped us weather the storm.

Will the Real John McCain Please Stand Up? The Maverick roasts the Messiah.

John McCain often comes across as stodgy and stiff. Well, Thursday night, at the nonpartisan Alfred E. Smith Memorial Dinner in New York, the senator brought down the house with his hilarious remarks on the election so far. With pitch-perfect delivery and impeccable timing, who knew that a white-tie affair would actually loosen him up?

[John McCain]

John McCain

On his penchant to overhaul his campaign staff, Mr. McCain self-mockingly announced that, once again, he's replaced his entire team of senior advisors, this time by one man: Joe the Plumber. Joe's concerned about getting hit by an Obama tax increase, Mr. McCain continued, because he recently signed "a very lucrative contract with a wealthy couple to handle the work on all seven of their houses " -- a shot at the McCains and their controversial housing assets.

On his relationship with Barack Obama, who was seated nearby, Mr. McCain revealed that while he likes to call his "friend and colleague . . . 'That One,'" Mr. Obama "even has a pet name for me: George Bush."

And in recognizing his underdog status, he lamented that "my friend " Chris Matthews of MSNBC was not a McCain supporter. "We've talked about it, and I've told him: 'Maverick I can do, but Messiah is above my paygrade.'"

Still, Mr. McCain said there was much cause for hope: "Even in this room full of proud Manhattan Democrats, I can't shake that feeling that some people here are pulling for me. I'm delighted to see you here tonight, Hillary!"

Like many other McCain speeches, this one was given from behind a podium and read from notes. Yet the crowd clearly loved him, as you could tell by the extended applause. If only every stop along the campaign trail was an Al Smith memorial dinner.

Invasion of the Wallet Snatchers: Confirming your suspicions about Obamanomics.

Night of the Living Constitution: Explaining the judicial consequences of an Obama presidency

The Cabinet of Dr. Obama: Dissecting the health care proposals of Obama and McCain.

The Fog: Translating Obama's vague foreign policy pronouncements.

A Liberal Supermajority: Get ready for 'change' we haven't seen since 1965, or 1933.

Obama Makes It Up

The Axelrod Method: The 'change' president could be in for a rough ride on Capitol Hill.

A couple Januaries ago, the first African-American governor of Massachusetts took the oath of office on the State House steps. "Change is not always comfortable or convenient or welcome," he declared. "But it is what we hoped for, what we have worked for, what you voted for, and what you shall have."

The swearing-in ended an improbable journey for Deval Patrick -- and started a painful lesson in political realities for a rookie executive.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

It’s the Economy, Stupid: And the policies of George W. Bush hardly deserve all the blame.

If 70 percent of the American people scrimp to buy a home, we can’t endanger their financial solvency by waiving the rules for others, who can’t or won’t pay the mortgage debts they freely incurred. It’s time to tell the public that you must budget to buy a house, see it as a place to raise a family and pay the mortgage you took on. And if that’s not possible, then keep renting.

The problems on Wall Street, our energy woes, the election-year fight over taxes versus more programs, and the housing crash have one common denominator: massive debt. They are simply the collective reflections of our own spendthrift habits of buying things with borrowed money that we now either can’t or don’t want to pay back.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Their Own Worst Enemy

Obama Voted 'Present' on Mortgage Reform

In each of the first two presidential debates, Barack Obama claimed that "Republican deregulation" is responsible for the financial crisis. Most viewers probably accepted this idea, especially because Republicans generally do favor deregulation.

But one essential fact was missing from the senator's narrative: While there has been significant deregulation in the U.S. economy during the last 30 years, none of it has occurred in the financial sector. Indeed, the only significant legislation with any effect on financial risk-taking was the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991, adopted during the first Bush administration in the wake of the collapse of the savings and loans (S&Ls). FDICIA, however, substantially tightened commercial bank and S&L regulations, including prompt corrective action when a bank's capital declines below adequate levels and severe personal fines if management violates laws or regulations.

If Sen. Obama had been asked for an example of "Republican deregulation," he would probably have cited the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 (GLBA), which has become a popular target for Democrats searching for something to pin on the GOP. This is puzzling. The bill's key sponsors were indeed Republicans, but the bill was supported by the Clinton administration and signed by President Clinton. The GLBA's "repeal" of a portion of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 is said to have somehow contributed to the current financial meltdown. Nonsense...

If Sen. Obama were truly looking for a kind of deregulation that might be responsible for the current financial crisis, he need only look back to 1998, when the Clinton administration ruled that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could satisfy their affordable housing obligations by purchasing subprime mortgages. This ultimately made it possible for Fannie and Freddie to add a trillion dollars in junk loans to their balance sheets. This led to their own collapse, and to the development of a market in these mortgages that is the source of the financial crisis we are wrestling with today.

Finally, on the matter of deregulation and the financial crisis, Sen. Obama should consider his own complicity in the failure of Congress to adopt legislation that might have prevented the subprime meltdown.

In the summer of 2005, a bill emerged from the Senate Banking Committee that considerably tightened regulations on Fannie and Freddie, including controls over their capital and their ability to hold portfolios of mortgages or mortgage-backed securities. All the Republicans voted for the bill in committee; all the Democrats voted against it. To get the bill to a vote in the Senate, a few Democratic votes were necessary to limit debate. This was a time for the leadership Sen. Obama says he can offer, but neither he nor any other Democrat stepped forward.

Instead, by his own account, Mr. Obama wrote a letter to the Treasury Secretary, allegedly putting himself on record that subprime loans were dangerous and had to be dealt with. This is revealing; if true, it indicates Sen. Obama knew there was a problem with subprime lending -- but was unwilling to confront his own party by pressing for legislation to control it. As a demonstration of character and leadership capacity, it bears a strong resemblance to something else in Sen. Obama's past: voting present.

OBAMA FIRES A 'ROBIN HOOD' WARNING SHOT



WASHINGTON - You won't find it in his campaign ads, but Barack Obama let slip his plans to become a modern-day Robin Hood in the White House, confiscating money from the rich to give to the poor.

Conservatives yesterday ripped Obama after he was caught on video telling an Ohio plumber that he intends to take the profits of small-business owners and "spread the wealth around" to those with lesser incomes.

The fracas over Obama's tax plan broke out Sunday outside Toledo when Joe Wurzelbacher approached the candidate.

Wurzelbacher said he planned to become the owner of a small plumbing business that will take in more than the $250,000 amount at which Obama plans to begin raising tax rates.

"Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn't it?" the blue-collar worker asked.

After Obama responded that it would, Wurzelbacher continued: "I've worked hard . . . I work 10 to 12 hours a day and I'm buying this company and I'm going to continue working that way. I'm getting taxed more and more while fulfilling the American Dream."

"It's not that I want to punish your success," Obama told him. "I want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they've got a chance for success, too.

Then, Obama explained his trickle-up theory of economics.

"My attitude is that if the economy's good for folks from the bottom up, it's gonna be good for everybody. I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."

Critics said Obama let the cat out of the bag.

"It's clear that his main goal is redistribution of wealth, not growth," said Andy Roth with the anti-tax group Club for Growth. "He's perfectly happy to destroy wealth as long as he can redistribute it."

Obama has been meticulous, Roth said, to conceal the "socialistic" nature of his tax plans. "But every once in a while, he lets it slip," he said.

Republican candidate John McCain yesterday charged that Obama's comment was telling.

"This explains how Senator Obama can promise an income-tax cut for millions who aren't even paying income taxes right now," he said in Pennsylvania.

"My plan isn't intended to force small businesses to cut jobs to pay higher taxes so we can 'spread the wealth around.' My plan is intended to create jobs and increase the wealth of all Americans."

Meanwhile, a New York Times/CBS poll last night showed Obama moving into a commanding 53-39 percent lead.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Biden's Fantasy World

In the popular media wisdom, Sarah Palin is the neophyte who knows nothing about foreign policy while Joe Biden is the savvy diplomatic pro. Then what are we to make of Mr. Biden's fantastic debate voyage last week when he made factual claims that would have got Mrs. Palin mocked from New York to Los Angeles?

[Biden's Fantasy World] AP

Start with Lebanon, where Mr. Biden asserted that "When we kicked -- along with France, we kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon, I said and Barack said, 'Move NATO forces in there. Fill the vacuum, because if you don't know -- if you don't, Hezbollah will control it.' Now what's happened? Hezbollah is a legitimate part of the government in the country immediately to the north of Israel."

The U.S. never kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon, and no one else has either. Perhaps Mr. Biden meant to say Syria, except that the U.S. also didn't do that. The Lebanese ousted Syria's military in 2005. As for NATO, Messrs. Biden and Obama may have proposed sending alliance troops in, but if they did that was also a fantasy. The U.S. has had all it can handle trying to convince NATO countries to deploy to Afghanistan.

Speaking of which, Mr. Biden also averred that "Our commanding general in Afghanistan said the surge principle in Iraq will not work in Afghanistan." In trying to correct him, Mrs. Palin mispronounced the general's name -- saying "General McClellan" instead of General David McKiernan. But Mr. Biden's claim was the bigger error, because General McKiernan said that while "Afghanistan is not Iraq," he also said a "sustained commitment" to counterinsurgency would be required. That is consistent with Mr. McCain's point that the "surge principles" of Iraq could work in Afghanistan.

Then there's the Senator's astonishing claim that Mr. Obama "did not say he'd sit down with Ahmadinejad" without preconditions. Yet Mr. Biden himself criticized Mr. Obama on this point in 2007 at the National Press Club: "Would I make a blanket commitment to meet unconditionally with the leaders of each of those countries within the first year I was elected President? Absolutely, positively no."

Or how about his rewriting of Bosnia history to assert that John McCain didn't support President Clinton in the 1990s. "My recommendations on Bosnia, I admit I was the first one to recommend it. They saved tens of thousands of lives. And initially John McCain opposed it along with a lot of other people. But the end result was it worked." Mr. Biden's immodesty aside, Mr. McCain supported Mr. Clinton on Bosnia, as did Bob Dole even as he was running against him for President in 1996 -- in contrast to the way Mr. Biden and Democratic leaders have tried to undermine President Bush on Iraq.

Closer to home, the Delaware blarney stone also invited Americans to join him at "Katie's restaurant" in Wilmington to witness middle-class struggles. Just one problem: Katie's closed in the 1980s. The mistake is more than a memory lapse because it exposes how phony is Mr. Biden's attempt to pose for this campaign as Lunchbucket Joe.

We think the word "lie" is overused in politics today, having become a favorite of the blogosphere and at the New York Times. So we won't say Mr. Biden was deliberately making events up when he made these and other false statements. Perhaps he merely misspoke. In any case, Mrs. Palin may not know as much about the world as Mr. Biden does, but at least most of what she knows is true.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Palin and Populism

She killed. She had him at "Nice to meet you. Hey, can I call you Joe?" She was the star. He was the second male lead, the good-natured best friend of the leading man. She was not petrified but peppy.

The whole debate was about Sarah Palin. She is not a person of thought but of action. Interviews are about thinking, about reflecting, marshaling data and integrating it into an answer. Debates are more active, more propelled—they are thrust and parry. They are for campaigners. She is a campaigner. Her syntax did not hold, but her magnetism did. At one point she literally winked at the nation.

As far as Mrs. Palin was concerned, Gwen Ifill was not there, and Joe Biden was not there. Sarah and the camera were there. This was classic "talk over the heads of the media straight to the people," and it is a long time since I've seen it done so well, though so transparently. There were moments when she seemed to be doing an infomercial pitch for charm in politics. But it was an effective infomercial.

Joe Biden seems to have walked in thinking that she was an idiot and that he only had to patiently wait for this fact to reveal itself. This was a miscalculation. He showed great forbearance. Too much forbearance. She said of his intentions on Iraq, "Your plan is a white flag of surrender." This deserved an indignant response, or at least a small bop on the head, from Mr. Biden, who has been for five years righter on Iraq than the Republican administration. He was instead mild.

The heart of her message was a complete populist pitch. "Joe Six-Pack" and "soccer moms" should unite to fight the tormentors who forced mortgages on us. She spoke of "Main Streeters like me." A question is at what point shiny, happy populism becomes cheerful manipulation.

Sarah Palin saved John McCain again Thursday night. She is the political equivalent of cardiac paddles: Clear! Zap! We've got a beat! She will re-electrify the base. More than that, an hour and a half of talking to America will take her to a new level of stardom. Watch her crowds this weekend. She's about to get jumpers, the old political name for people who are so excited to see you they start to jump.

Why Some Women Hate Sarah Palin

Republican vice presidential candidate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin ...

Nice Try: Palin is still standing.

When Joe Met Sarah

A Plausible Vice President: Sarah Palin did more than merely survive the debate.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Playing games

Begin typing here

The U.S. dollar is soaring (at least in relation to the British pound), the price of oil is plummeting, stock markets are calming in the eye of the storm, the big bad banks are going down like dominoes. At first sight, what's not to like about the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to rubberstamp the Bush-Paulson-Pelosi-Reid financial rescue package?

Better, from a strictly Democrat point of view, Nancy Pelosi and company are squeezing every drop of partisan advantage from the process itself, by which lame-duck Republicans are trying to fix a largely Democrat-created problem that Republicans like John McCain could see coming for at least the last three years, and actually tried to do something about, over Democrat objections.

(Most readers won't know this because they are not being told by the mainstream media: but yes, McCain began pleading with the Senate Banking Committee to act on huge irregularities discovered in the accounts of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, back in May 2006, two years after a Bush administration initiative to improve their regulation died in Congress. McCain's efforts were ridiculed, then stifled by ranking Democrats, including the committee chairman, Chris Dodd, the leading recipient of financial contributions from lobbyists for the very banks McCain said were "gaming the system." Senator Barack Obama is incidentally the second-biggest recipient of political contributions from these sources.)

Nancy Pelosi to the U.S. Senate, Monday, on the figure of $700 billion: "It is a number that is staggering, but tells us only the costs of the Bush administration's failed economic policies: policies built on budgetary recklessness, on an anything-goes mentality, with no regulation, no supervision, and no discipline in the system."

This remark was as close to the opposite of the truth as it is humanly possible to get. Even by the standards of politicians, it was shameful. That it was used by a politician who went on to pat herself and Democrat colleagues on the back for their selfless bipartisan efforts to rewrite the Bush-Paulson rescue proposal into a shopping list of Democrat attachments -- including e.g. Harry Reid's attempt to squeeze in an extension to the moratorium on oil shale drilling -- speaks to a profound unseriousness.

Ms. Pelosi's speech itself could not have been better designed to discourage Republicans in the U.S. House -- whom she knew were receiving messages from their constituents 10-to-one against the rescue package -- from voting for it. One must reasonably assume she wanted the measure defeated, by those Republicans, for political advantage.

The combination of great political cleverness with moral vacuity -- cynicism, in a word -- is a plague throughout the western world. The phenomenon is hardly confined to the left-of-centre parties, and yet neither is it evenly distributed. For cynicism of that nature requires domination of the news media. Supine media, in the tank for the Democrats, make it possible in this case.

But the problem transcends left and right. We cannot solve problems, in a "bipartisan" or any other way, when the cause of the problems is concealed from us, and false explanations are substituted, whether from malice or from ignorance. We can only compound problems in this way.

The various credit crises we face are real, notwithstanding the facetiousness with which I began this column. Anyone who doubts this should look into shipping news. All over the world, ships carrying vital commodities are failing to load and sail because banks are currently too shy to extend modest, conventional credit instruments. The cumulative effect of that, and much else like that, will soon bring home the reality of failing banks even to those who keep their money in pillows.

The only thing I liked about Hank Paulson's original proposal (of three pages) was its crispness and clarity. Take $700 billion of bad debt out of the system, let the government with its greater resources carry the risk on it, and maybe, just maybe, the banking system will right itself.

It was a clean proposal to pump water out of a foundering hull, and every complication added to it (including even the ban on short-selling) reduces its effectiveness.

Moreover, if the banking system recovered, and with it the economy that depends upon it, the government would have a fairly good chance, over time, to get its money back, as debtors recovered the ability to make payments.

The question should never have been how to encumber the pumping operation. Rather, it should have been, will $700 billion be enough? For that is the fallout from the subprime crisis alone, and we have credit card, auto purchase, and several other credit crises stacked up behind it.

And if it is not enough, what would be better? To let nature take its course, like a hurricane, and then rebuild from the ground up? Or try to rebuild in the face of the hurricane?

Ivy League America assumes the latter, Main Street America the former.

David Warren

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Putin and the Polite Pundits

On September 1, the leaders of the European Union, having already warned Moscow several times of its obligation to meet the terms of the cease-fire agreement with Georgia, held an emergency meeting in Brussels and decided to—issue another warning. If Russia continues its non-compliance, the leaders threatened, another warning may yet follow.

Such are the pitiful realities of international diplomacy, and of an all too familiar Western pattern of response to acts of blatant aggression by powerful dictators. It is embarrassing enough when governments, with responsibility for the security of millions, resort to such hand-wringing hesitancy. It is worse when analysts and critics who are free to speak their minds on everything under the sun start looking for reasons to avoid placing blame for aggression squarely where it belongs—on the aggressors—and instead strive conspicuously to spread it around among the bystanders and even the victims.

Such was the response to Russia’s August 9 invasion of the pro-Western democracy of Georgia by the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. Under the title “What Did We Expect?,” Friedman dutifully awarded an Olympic-style gold medal for “brutal stupidity”—stupidity, not criminality—to Vladimir Putin, the man who actually sent in the troops and tanks. But then Friedman quickly went on to confer a silver medal for “bone-headed recklessness” on Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, whose country suffered the attack. The bronze for “short-sightedness” went, needless to say, to George W. Bush (shared, retroactively, with Bill Clinton).

Friedman’s reasoning went like this. By trying “to cram NATO expansion down the Russians’ throats,” the United States had mortally injured the feelings of the former superpower, a nation still smarting from defeat in the cold war. As if that were not provocation enough, Russia now confronts the prospect of former Soviet republics like Estonia, Ukraine, and Georgia joining the community of liberal democracies, and has also been asked to tolerate an anti-missile defense system the Bush administration wants to install across Eastern Europe. Offenses like these, Friedman wrote, had been “critical to fueling Putin’s rise” to power, and they all but ensured a crisis like the one with Georgia. Friedman’s views were echoed by, among others, former Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev, who as much as told the United States it could expect worse if it undertook to provoke Putin and Russia again.

And in what had Saakashvili’s sin consisted? By daring to use military force to put down Russian-backed separatists in the breakaway Ossetian region, he, too, had supposedly compelled Putin to invade. The Economist, denouncing Saakashvili as “an impetuous nationalist,” did not shrink from calling his actions “foolish and possibly criminal.” Michael Dobbs of the Washington Post wondered how the Georgians could have been guilty of such a gross “miscalculation”; they must have known that Russian peacekeepers would be killed or wounded in the fighting, thus inevitably triggering a harsh Russian response. And so forth.

In the weeks after the invasion, one would search long and hard for speculations of a different and arguably more pertinent sort. Why, for instance, have former Soviet-bloc nations like Poland, Ukraine, and Georgia been so anxious to get into NATO in the first place—or to have a missile-defense shield installed in their backyards? Who were those Russian “peacekeepers,” and what were they doing in South Ossetia? How is it that Moscow was prepared to respond to the Georgian “provocation” with such massive force, and on such short notice?

We now know that Putin’s troops had been on the move along the border of Georgia and the Ossetian region for weeks; that the Russians had been handing out Russian passports to Ossetian “citizens” for months, and since April had been preparing local railroad tracks for the movement of armored troop trains; and that, by August 8, at least 150 Russian tanks were poised for action on the border separating South and North Ossetia. What the evidence suggests is that, far from reacting defensively, Putin and the Russian president Dmitri Medvedev deliberately aimed to elicit Georgia’s move into South Ossetia, aiming to exploit this as a pretext for wresting away both that region and Abkhazia to the west.

To be sure, no one, from Thomas Friedman to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to those European leaders meeting in Brussels, has any “illusions” about Putin. Almost from the day he came to high office in 2000, Western media, policy analysts, and politicians have acknowledged his multiple abuses of power, the corruption of his regime, and the spectacular failure of democratic hopes inside Russia. At the same time, however, and grumbling as they go, all have continued to acquiesce in the fact of Putin’s dictatorship over post-Soviet Russia and his growing encroachment on the rights and territories of the newly independent but still sovereign countries around him. Indeed, the transparency of Putin’s put-up job over Georgia, together with the West’s so-far supine response, follows a pattern of its own, and it too has been discernible from the day he came to power.

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Vladimir Putin broke onto the Russian national scene in 1996, at the age of forty-one. A former law student and KGB professional, he had been the political protégé of Anatoly Sobchak, the mayor of St. Petersburg and a leading advocate of Western-style rule of law during the chaotic years of Boris Yeltsin’s presidency. Unlike many Russian politicians, Putin had lived abroad and could speak both German and English. Despite his KGB résumé, his early speeches were full of references to the need for democratic reform and for close ties between Russia and the West. When the faltering Yeltsin appointed him as his prime minister and successor in August 1999, it was largely in hopes that, as a lawyer with a Ph.D. in economics, Putin would carry out the necessary political and legal measures to correct the havoc resulting from the “shock therapy” of economic deregulation.

Little noted then or later was that Putin had gone to law school precisely in order to be recruited into the KGB. The secret-police agency, to which he would devote sixteen years of his life, exercised an enormous influence on him. Among other things, it bred a deep contempt for civil society and its governing norms; according to his biographer Richard Sakwa in Putin: Russia’s Choice (2007), he became convinced that, for all the agency’s ruthlessness and resort to systematic deception, the KGB was the only component of Soviet and, later, Russian society that actually worked and that enjoyed a sense of professional integrity. His entire political career may be seen as an extension of the lessons learned in those years.

This, however, was not how most Western analysts saw Putin when he assumed the presidency in 2000. To the Russian specialist Steven Solnick, for example, Putin was largely a transitional figure. He faced such enormous institutional constraints, including the legislated division of power between Russia’s federal and provincial authorities, that he would likely accomplish little or nothing during his time in office. While acknowledging Putin’s anti-democratic belief “that the needs of the state trump the rights of the individual,” and his “troubling” arrest of a Radio Free Europe reporter covering the guerrilla war in Chechnya in 1999, Solnick nevertheless concluded that the new president would find it hard to implement any truly repressive policy.

Stephens Holmes of New York University’s law school, in a widely reprinted essay titled “Simulations of Power in Putin’s Russia,” was even more dismissive of the Russian leader’s KGB past and authoritarian tendencies. Arguing against what he dubbed the School of Fear, Holmes expressed confidence that, Putin or no Putin, the Kremlin was simply incapable “of imposing authoritarian discipline on Russian society.”

In fact, however, the regime was already beginning to move aggressively in just that direction. Although Friedman would later try to connect this development with the latitude afforded Putin by the rise in oil revenues—“as the price of oil goes up,” Friedman would write, “the pace of freedom goes down”—Putin’s first crackdown on the independent Russian media went back to New Year’s Eve 1999, predating his assumption of the presidency and at a time when oil still averaged $17.00 a barrel. Then, in June 2000, came the arrest on trumped-up charges of Vladimir Gusinsky, the head of the television network NTV. In November of the same year, Boris Berezovsky, another oligarch and the owner of the independent TV station ORT, fled to exile in London, lamenting that “all the decrees, all the laws proposed by Putin are directed at again enslaving people.”

At the time, it was widely believed that Berezovsky, hardly a model citizen, was just another among the many disgruntled oligarchs—Yeltsin-era monopolists who had enriched themselves by taking over former state industries at bargain-basement prices and whom Putin was trying to bring to heel. But this was simplistic. Putin was not at odds with the oligarchs; they had been and remained indispensable to him. But he was bent on intimidating them into doing his bidding, or else replacing them with creatures who would. In Sackwa’s euphemistic phrasing, Putin wanted to open “a new phase in which the [Russian] administration sought to shape the economic sphere by sponsoring ‘national champions’”: i.e., those willing to play ball. The analyst Lilia Shevtsova of the Carnegie Endowment was more direct about it. “Instead of using the courts” to deal with those who might have broken the law, she observed, Putin was relying on “strong-arm tactics led by the MVD [Ministry of Internal Affairs], the FSB [the successor to the KGB], and the prosecutor general.”

The process of liquidating recalcitrant oligarchs reached a high point in October 2003 when Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of the mammoth oil company Yukos and Russia’s wealthiest man, was summarily thrown into prison—a crowning signal that Russia’s economy, like its media, would no longer enjoy an independent existence. Although the old arrangement of behind-the-scenes kickbacks and profiteering remained in place, the leading oligarchs were now Putin men, many of them former KGB and security-services people like himself. “As in Soviet days,” Sackwa writes gingerly, “law was used instrumentally.”

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Still, to many Western observers, Putin’s authoritarianism, distasteful as it undeniably was, seemed a not intolerable price to be paid for Russia’s emergence as a stable society, one with which, in the phrase of the day, the West “could do business.” Moreover, it was possible to point to an important gauge of Putin’s success—namely, his popularity at home. Opinion poll after opinion poll showed that Russians not only endorsed his style of governance—a 2002 survey suggested 57-percent approval of press censorship—but, in sharp contrast with the mood of the Yeltsin years, felt a growing sense of “optimism about the future.”

No wonder, then, that Putin would win reelection in March 2004 with 71.2 percent of the vote (although two out of every three Russians had stayed away from the polls or voted against him). The speech that launched his reelection bid—“I am certain that only a developed civil society can ensure the stability of democratic freedom and the guarantees of human and civil rights”—pushed every sensitive Western button. Could it be that a new era was dawning after all? No one wanted to inquire too closely into what Putin meant by a “developed civil society,” or how he intended to get there.

For Fareed Zakaria that year, Putin was a leading example of “illiberal democracy”—i.e., a system run by a genuinely popular authoritarian. True, Zakaria admitted in The Future of Freedom (2004), “there will be absolutely no one left to check the Kremlin” if Putin were to continue along the way he was going. But at least he “want[ed] to build a modern Russia,” and if this succeeded, the country might yet “become a normal industrialized country with some of the liberal features” of a genuine democracy. “Perhaps,” Zakaria added hopefully, “he even believes that eventually Russia will be able to democratize its political system.” Only not yet.

James Billington, the distinguished Russian expert and former Librarian of Congress, was compelled to agree. Like others, Billington had plenty of doubts about Putin: the parliamentary elections in December 2003, he wrote, marked “a clear victory for the authoritarian-nationalist over the liberal-democratic impulses in the new Russia.” Still, that was Russia for you—a country that “would find its true identity,” in Billington’s judgment, “only by reasserting top-down central authority—what Russians called the ‘power vertical’—against the democratic trends that had been developing from the bottom up.”

Strobe Talbott, who had been the principal architect of Russia policy in Bill Clinton’s State Department, took a similar view in a New York Times op-ed piece on May 12, 2004. Talbott quoted with approval from Putin’s oath of office for his second presidential term: “only a free people in a free country can be genuinely successful.” Yes, he conceded, the regime was increasingly repressive. Yes, having largely snuffed out the opposition, Putin was under no real internal pressure to liberalize. But again it was those stubborn Russians—a people who “want to modernize their country, but [who] are determined to do it in their own way, not according to some Western formula or by Western standards.”

About one thing, observers like Zakaria, Billington, and Talbott were right: alternatives to Putin were few on the ground. There was a lonely figure like Garry Kasparov, the chess champion and democratic dissident whom Billington thought something of a nut. There was also a resurgent Communist party, which was threatening explicitly to turn back the clock to Soviet days. Even more menacingly, there were crude Nazi-style nationalists like Boris Zhirinovsky, whose party had doubled its seats in the 2003 parliamentary election. And there was the Rodina party, a Slavophile grouping advocating a sharp break with the West and the re-nationalization of the entire Russian economy. Putin may not have been an ideal leader for Russia by Western standards; but under the circumstances, he seemed a fairly balanced choice.

Yet as Billington himself was aware when he wrote Russia in Search of Itself (2004), the Rodina party was itself an artificial creation, its radical populist message having been concocted by Putin himself in order to split the vote on the Communist Left. Thanks to the help of such decoys, and to the elimination of any truly democratic opposition, Russian parliamentary politics was becoming a masquerade, behind which Putin’s dictatorship continued to consolidate itself.

Sounding his own hopeful note, Talbott ventured that perhaps a drop in oil prices, in tandem with “the logic of what Russians call ‘life itself,’” might finally force Putin to resolve the contradiction between his democratic-seeming rhetoric and his authoritarian politics. In fact, however, oil prices were about to rise steeply, from $34.00 to $61.00 a barrel by 2006, and Putin was already learning that, whatever Western leaders might say in criticism of his harsh practices, there was little they would do. To the contrary: the more he seemed to pursue a hardline policy at home, the readier the United States and Europe appeared to embrace him.

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Back in September 1999, when Putin was barely a month into his first term as prime minister under Boris Yeltsin, apartment blocks in the cities of Moscow, Buinaksk, and Volgodonsk were rocked by a series of bomb explosions. Three hundred people were killed. Putin immediately blamed the attacks on separatists from the breakaway region of Chechnya in the North Caucasus and promised swift action against the “terrorists.”

By that point, public opinion had largely turned against the on-again off-again war that had been going on in Chechnya since 1994. In the words of Peter Truscott in Putin’s Progress (2004), people “couldn’t believe Russia would re-fight the first Chechen war, with the huge human and financial cost that would involve.” But that was exactly what Putin vowed to do—with the coming presidential election as his backdrop. A figure almost unknown to the Russian public until then, he was suddenly a person of high profile. To this day, theories linger that the FSB set the bombs in order to focus Russian public opinion on the Chechen issue, and on Putin as the nation’s savior.

More than 80,000 Russian troops poured into Chechnya in a full-scale invasion. Future historians may well see the assault on that province as the blackest of the black marks against Putin, and the West’s relative silence as one of its greatest moral failures. As documented by a handful of intrepid Russian journalists like the soon-to-be-assassinated Anna Politkovskaya, torture, beatings, massacres, and looting by drunken and out-of-control Russian soldiers were commonplace.1 By official count, 4,200 Russian soldiers were dead by 2002, though soldier’s rights groups and human-rights activists said the true figure was three or four times higher; at least 100,000 Chechens would eventually die in the conflict.

When public confidence in the war flagged again in 2002, a new series of domestic attacks reignited national hysteria. In October of that year, a terrorist managed to seize a theater in Moscow and hold 800 hostages. Then came the massacre at a school in Beslan in 2004. Each time, Putin gained new executive powers to step up the war effort in Chechnya. And he did eventually succeed in breaking the back of Chechen resistance—by, to borrow the phrase of the Roman historian Tacitus, making a desert and calling it peace.

Apart from some human-rights groups, the West remained largely silent about what, if carried out by the United States or a European country, would certainly have been branded as ethnic cleansing. Instead, the EU and the U.S. largely accepted Putin’s explanation that the Chechen separatists were really Islamic extremists, and that the war was Russia’s corner of the ongoing struggle against Islamist terrorism. Answering his critics in the West, Putin employed much the same vocabulary that he invokes today against critics of his actions in Georgia: what business does the U.S., a country that invaded Iraq, have questioning how Russia chooses to deal with its own internal threats?

Another card Putin was able to play to win Western acquiescence was his supposed cooperation in the war on terror. In this connection it is useful to recall that the Soviet Union had been a leading sponsor of international terrorism during the 1970’s and the heyday of the PLO. The prospect of Russia’s now working as an active partner in combating Islamic terrorism must have seemed irresistible to European and American statesmen and intelligence services. But a prospect is what it largely remained.

In reality, Russia’s role when it came to rogue nations like Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and later Ahmadinejad’s Iran was the exact opposite of what Putin sought to portray. Next to France’s Jacques Chirac, he was Saddam’s most reliable ally in the months leading up to Operation Iraqi Freedom. In the Security Council, Moscow consistently blocked Washington’s push for international action, finally forcing the Bush administration to move without an explicit vote of UN approval. In the light of later disclosures about the UN’s corrupt Oil-for-Food program, it is easy to appreciate what was behind this: fully 30 percent of the recipients on Saddam’s list of payoffs were Russian. To this day, Putin continues to oppose U.S. policy in Iraq, just as he resolutely opposes any firm action against Iran (one reason, incidentally, that he has remained popular with some on the European Left).

By the time his second presidential term started in 2004, Putin’s attacks on domestic opponents were turning ever more blatant and deadly. In April 2003, the parliamentary deputy Sergei Yushenkov, a leading liberal, was shot dead outside his Moscow apartment; the murderer was never found. In July, another deputy, Yury Shchekochikhin, died mysteriously of what seemed to be poisoning. Viktor Yushchenko, a Ukrainian presidential candidate who publicly advocated stronger ties to the West, came down with a similarly mysterious illness, but eventually recovered.

Not so fortunate was Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer and outspoken critic of Putin. His slow and agonizing death in London in November 2006 was the result of contamination by a chemical, polonium-210, well-known to Russian intelligence agents. This was almost certainly a case of murder, as was the killing a month earlier of the journalist Anna Politkovskaya. Her death, like Litvinenko’s, went officially unsolved.

Each of these occurrences duly elicited cries of outrage in the West, but little else. The general response seemed to be: tread cautiously, things could always be worse. When, in 2005, some made bold to call for Russia’s exclusion from the G-8 summit, Strobe Talbott warned heatedly that any such strategy would backfire. Turning our backs on Putin, he wrote, would be “a sign that the West is giving up on Russia” itself, and would further dishearten Russian democrats. Instead, the way to proceed was by means of “quiet calibrated democracy,” which might yet induce Putin “to reaffirm principles of good governance” and thus provide a way “to nudge Russia in the right direction.”

Talbott’s argument, like that of many others, rested on a simple proposition: for all his iron-fisted rule, Putin was creating the necessary preconditions to the country’s “evolution as an open society” by restoring national confidence and rebuilding the Russian economy. But was that true in 2005, and is it true today? A powerful recent article in Foreign Affairs by the Russian experts Michael McFaul and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss casts severe doubt on the claim.

Although the Russian economy did expand by 69 percent between 1999 and 2007, eleven of the fifteen former USSR republics did better, and only one, Kyrgyzstan, did worse. (Former Soviet-bloc countries like the Czech Republic and Poland did far better.) The driving engine of Russian growth, moreover, was not real economic output but oil and gas exports. It was somewhat like the case of Saudi Arabia: take away the petrodollars ($350 billion in 2007), and Putin’s Russia emerges as another Third World country.

Nor is it the case that Putin’s rule has created a more stable business climate, for Russians or anyone else. In 2006 the World Bank ranked Russia at 96th out of 175 nations for favorable investment opportunities—the country’s worst-ever showing. Putin’s steady threats to cut off oil and gas to his neighbors has led to a mass exodus of foreign investors. According to the economist Judy Shelton, who correctly predicted the economic collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, Putin “has yet to learn that capital does not respond well to extortion.”

What is true of business is true in other areas as well. Globally, in terms of rule of law, Russia ranks in the bottom fifth of nations (again according to the World Bank). In terms of overall governance, it ranks in the 38th percentile from the bottom. In the words of the British analyst Martin Wolf, Putin’s huge expansion of state power has resulted not “in an effective state, but [in] an overweening one.”

By the beginning of 2008, in any case, the idea that the West could continue to “do business” with Putin was seeming increasingly illusory. This left only one further justification for putting up with him: that his regime, however brutal and corrupt, at least did not threaten the stability of post-cold-war Europe. As Stephen Kotkin of Princeton assured an audience in February 2007, Russia’s foreign outlook was neither assertive nor resentful, and the country “is really only threatening to itself.”

Unfortunately, Kotkin spoke just before Putin threatened to cut oil and gas supplies to nations like Poland, and just before Russia launched an attempt to disrupt Internet service in the Baltic republics. But wishful thinking dies hard. This past February, responding to Martin Wolf’s dire portrait of Putin’s Russia in the Financial Times, the economist Vlad Sobell wrote: “I strongly disagree . . . that Putin is a ‘dangerous failure.’” On the contrary, “what is dangerous is the poisonous, but unfortunately now well-embedded notion that the ‘increasingly aggressive’ Russia is about to menace us.”

Six months later, Russian tanks rolled into Georgia.

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How do we explain this long-running inclination (to put it no more strongly) on the part of knowledgeable observers to avert their eyes from the challenge posed by Putin and his regime?2

Part of the answer, certainly, lies in Putin’s skill at talking the democratic talk while walking the authoritarian walk. As an exercise in deceptive rhetoric, his two terms as Russian president were stunningly successful in conveying the impression that at some point he would deem it possible, for the future good of Russia, to relax his iron grip. And it was not just Westerners who chose to believe him or to rationalize his repressive actions. “The model for Russia in the early 90’s was Poland,” the Russian liberal Vladimir Ryzkhov told Fareed Zakaria in 1999; “now it’s Chile under Pinochet.” Ryzkhov, like Zakaria, thought Putin might turn out to be the Russian Pinochet, “a good czar.”

But was there ever any good reason to assume that a man whose every instinct seemed geared away from the values of a free society would willingly lead the way to such a society? In fact, the real issue may not have been excessive trust in Putin himself—which almost no one was guilty of—but an excess of distrust in the ability of the Russian people to make the transition to democracy. The possibility that Russia might have within it the moral, intellectual, and cultural resources to become a free, open, and stable democracy on its own, without the stern guiding hand of an authoritarian leader, has seemed, to many, wildly unrealistic.

Some have traced this supposed national resistance to Western democratic values to the country’s history and anti-liberal legacy under czars and Soviets. The same explanation serves, paradoxically, to explain Putin’s popularity. Why do Russians vote in large numbers? Not because they have a desire for Western-style democracy, but because what they really want is something that Putin supplies in abundance: at best, a kind of plebiscitary democracy, or what Zakaria calls illiberal democracy. In today’s Russia, elections provide, in that writer’s words, “a cover for authoritarianism and populism.”

And is the authoritarian version of democracy such a bad thing? Not in the view of observers like Zakaria. After all, they point out, Western-style liberal democracy is a messy and unpredictable affair, all the more so when imported wholesale into an underdeveloped or emerging nation—or one, like Russia, with an already long history of authoritarian rule. In such cases, liberal democracy becomes a vehicle for rampant corruption, for ethnic strife (as in India), for chaos (as in Russia under Yeltsin), or for the rise of “impetuous nationalists” like Georgian president Saakashvili. By contrast, the Putin model provides a single clear figure with whom we can deal, and on whom we can count.

This may be why, as Natan Sharansky has noted, “democratic governments across the globe, on the Left and the Right, almost always prefer the non-democratic regime they know to the democratic one they don’t.” But the fallacies underlying this line of thinking are many. In Russia’s case, one such fallacy is the belief that the problems of the Yeltsin era sprang from an excess of democracy—more democracy than Russians could handle. Actually, the problem was too few safeguards for democracy, especially in the form of institutions enforcing the rule of law and, specifically, the sanctity of contracts. It was precisely the lack of such institutional safeguards that enabled the rise first of the oligarchs and then of Putin himself.

Another fallacy lies in the notion that only certain societies are capable of achieving democratic breakthroughs. Aside from today’s Iraq, a striking counterexample is Georgia itself. For 70 years, from 1921 to 1991, all traces of an independent civil society in that land were stamped out by Soviet occupation. During the first half-decade after the collapse of the USSR, Georgia endured an economic meltdown and virtual civil war with its Abkhaz and Ossetian populations, laboring all the while under a Mafia-style regime as corrupt and narrow as that of any former Soviet republic.

Then, in November 2003, a band of reformers, including Mikheil Saakashvili, launched the so-called Rose Revolution, which kicked out the old regime and instituted a new direction. Observers like Thomas Friedman like to point out that Georgian democracy is hardly perfect. They are right. But it has been evolving steadily and self-consciously in a Western direction, and has sought to be included as part of the Western world through membership in NATO.

This is the self-same liberal-democratic government that many in Europe and elsewhere are evidently willing to see dismembered in order to avoid a confrontation with the illiberal government of Vladimir Putin. And herein lies the final fallacy—namely, that governments headed by a single leader who makes all the decisions are in fact easier to deal with, and by their nature easier to incorporate into a stable international order, than ones characterized by what Talbott refers to as “free-for-all democracy.” On just these grounds, Henry Kissinger points out in Diplomacy, some British statesmen welcomed Hitler’s advent to power in 1933. “[Hitler’s] signature would bind all Germany like no other German’s in all her past,” enthused British ambassador Eric Phipps to his colleagues in London. Five years later at Munich, Britain and France had the opportunity to test the validity of that bond. The lesson was a bitter one.

This time around, we have a chance to learn the same lesson once again—so far, without the high stakes that were involved in the 1930’s. Georgia in 2008 is not Czechoslovakia in 1938. Nor are we returning to the cold war. But the final lesson from the rule of Putin should be clear. When we back stability over democracy, we get neither. When we choose democracy over stability, we have an opportunity to build a foundation for both. That is now happening in Iraq, and until the Russian invasion it was happening even more unmistakably in Georgia. Our task for now is to make sure we don’t make the same bad choice again. Standing up to Putin, calling him by his proper name, would be a start.

Footnotes

1 A Small Corner of Hell: Dispatches from Chechnya (2003).

2 An important exception is Leon Aron of the American Enterprise Institute, author of a fine biography of Boris Yeltsin. The progression of Aron’s change of view about Putin, from cautiously positive to grimly negative, can be traced in the pages of COMMENTARY from November 2002 (“Russia’s Revolution”) to October 2004 (“Is Russia Going Backward?”) to December 2006 (“What Does Putin Want?”).


About the Author

Arthur Herman is the author most recently of Gandhi and Churchill: The Epic Rivalry that Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age (Bantam Books). His essays in COMMENTARY include “Why Iraq Was Inevitable” (July-August) and “Who Owns the Vietnam War?” (December 2007).