Thursday, February 11, 2010

Health-Care Reform Could Create a Litigation Explosion The recent firestorm over nonbinding mammogram recommendations offers a glimpse of the possible

President Obama wants to convene a bipartisan meeting later this month to discuss health reform—"to go systematically through all the best ideas out there," as he said to CBS's Katie Couric in a pre-Super Bowl interview. "How do you guys want to lower costs?" he said he'd ask Republicans.

If he is sincere, the president should consider how the health-care bills his party has on the table right now will drive up the legal costs that are draining the health-care system we currently have.

By creating new federally enforceable rights and obligations, layers of complex federal regulations, and dozens of new programs and agencies—not to mention 50 newfangled "exchanges"—ObamaCare would guarantee a flood of litigation. That means more money wasted on attorney fees, physicians focused on legal rather than medical considerations, and growing delays in our already-overburdened courts.

The first court battles will focus on the constitutionality of requiring individuals to buy health insurance. Assuming the statute survives, subsequent litigation will put Americans' health in the hands of federal judges who will effectively write health-care policy as they divine the meaning of thousands of pages of statutory language and accompanying regulations.

The sources of litigation will be many, ranging from individual coverage disputes to other constitutional claims explored below. In between, there's enough vague and ambiguous statutory language to keep lawyers employed for decades. One example: the compromise abortion provision contained in the Senate bill. Fervent disagreement over its meaning presages bitter court fights.

Consider also the legislation's prohibition of a deductible for "preventive services" recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force. The recent firestorm over the Task Force's mammogram recommendations is but a glimpse of the legal battles that will ensue when such recommendations gain new legal status under the statute.

To implement the legislation currently on the table, federal bureaucrats will necessarily generate thousands of pages of regulations. Under the Administrative Procedure Act, trial lawyers—as well as attorneys for industry, the medical profession, and countless interest groups—will challenge not only the substance of the regulations, but also the procedures used to generate them.

For example, the bills command the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to "define the essential health benefits" that insurance plans must contain. Imagine the mischief trial lawyers can make by claiming that the resulting regulations fail to fully "take into account the health-care needs of diverse segments of the population," as the Senate bill requires. Lawyers will also challenge some of HHS's rule-making as an improper delegation of congressional authority.

The greatest number of lawsuits may come from individuals flexing their new-found right to essential health benefits by challenging insurance companies' coverage decisions in court after internal appeals are exhausted. The Senate and House bills will inevitably produce, but do nothing to mitigate, an increase in the variety and complexity of such litigation.

Now that the federal government is inserting itself between you and your insurance company, we'll also see coverage disputes in which the feds are among the defendants. HHS might even wind up as a defendant in medical malpractice lawsuits.

The Constitution applies to government actions, so the feds' dramatically expanded role in health care promises an explosion of constitutional claims, driven both by financial gain and interest group agendas. Lawsuits claiming equal protection violations will be limited only by the human capacity to feel discriminated against.

Women's groups will likely sue if HHS requires coverage for erectile dysfunction but not breast augmentation. Gay-rights groups will litigate if they don't like the way HHS defines "family" for insurance purposes. People 30 and over will file suit because only the young are permitted to purchase catastrophic coverage. Hispanics will go to court if they are disproportionately asked to prove citizenship before receiving insurance subsidies. And white folks will sue because of the various racial preferences in the bills.

Death panels or not, greater federal involvement in health care, including end-of-life care, triggers the constitutional requirement that government afford due process when life is at stake. Liberals who complained about the interference of federal courts in the Terri Schiavo case may wind up regretting their push to federalize health care.

Government intervention also elevates privacy issues to a constitutional level. The bills single out smoking as a justification for higher insurance premiums, potentially raising the constitutional issue of how far federal bureaucrats enforcing the new premium rules can go in determining whether you smoke in your home.

Creative trial lawyers will be aided by those activist judges more interested in making than interpreting the law. The four corners of, say, the Senate bill and its accompanying regulations will be just a starting point for a panoply of judge-made entitlements, "rights," and federal obligations that will themselves trigger a further expansion of health-care litigation.

"Litigation has several features at odds with sound health policy—including its cost, its hindsight bias, and its adversarial character," William Sage, Vice Provost for Health Affairs at the University of Texas, warned us seven years ago in the Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law. Under ObamaCare, health care will become even more costly and adversarial, with patients' concerns crowded out as doctors focus on avoiding lawsuits and federal investigations, and insurance companies and regulators blame each other for every problem.

And if you think insurance companies take too long to make decisions when lives hang in the balance, just wait to see the delays in patient care caused by the federal bureaucracy and an overburdened court system.

Supporters of the legislation favored by the president and most of his party point to socialized medicine in Europe as evidence that federalizing health care won't be the disaster that many predict. But European nations are not nearly as litigious as our own. The uniquely American combination of bureaucrats, trial lawyers, and judges running our health-care system will prove more costly and deadly than anyone can imagine.

Mr. Levey is executive director of the Washington-based Committee for Justice.

I'm the President's Trusted Counselor My name is Straw Man, and I've got a direct pipeline to the Oval Office.

Some people get quoted in presidential speeches by writing heartfelt letters to the president about personal loss, or by doing something heroic, like landing a plane in the icy Hudson River.

I just sit in the Oval Office, and mouth off to President Barack Obama, one inanity after the next. And sure enough, my words—word for word, mind you!—show up in his biggest speeches.

Who am I? Sotus—Straw man of the United States. I'm Mr. Obama's most trusted rhetorical friend.

In his speeches, Mr. Obama says there are "those" who suggest we "can meet our enormous tests with half-steps and piecemeal measures." He suggests there are "some" who are content to let America's economy become, at best, "number two." He says that on health care, "some people" think we should do nothing.

Listen, there is no "some people." He's just quoting me, Sotus.

Why, just a few weeks ago, I said: "Hey, Mr. President, you know, why don't we just fight tired old battles, run up the deficit, and, you know, just chuck common sense to the wind?" Imagine my thrill when I heard Mr. Obama during the recent State of the Union: "Rather than fight the same tired battles that have dominated Washington for decades, it's time to try something new. Let's invest in our people without leaving them a mountain of debt. Let's meet our responsibility to the citizens who sent us here. Let's try common sense." Ouch, Mr. President, you got me there!

And then there was the nice talk we had right before that historic January afternoon, when he was sworn in. I turned to him and said: "Mr. President-elect, our system of government can really only tolerate small plans, and limited ambitions." Think how good it felt to hear my own words echoing across the Mall: "There are some who question the scale of our ambitions, who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short, for they have forgotten what this country has already done." Good one, Mr. President!

A few days later, as we were shooting baskets, I said: "Mr. President, you know, I think that in the face of the biggest financial crisis in three generations, you should really do nothing."

And sure enough, at a press conference on Feb. 9, 2009, he quoted me: "There seems to be a set of folks who—I don't doubt their sincerity—who just believe that we should do nothing . . . I don't think that's what the American people expect, is for us to stand by and do nothing." They don't? Guess I lose again!

And you know, I'm not just about policy. I also care a lot about presidential leadership. My preference: Go slower. Do less. Don't try so hard. Don't care so much. Don't be so bold.

Conservatives cry foul when they hear me quoted. They can't imagine anyone is saying the things that Mr. Obama stands up as arguments that he proceeds to knock down. Of course, they haven't met Sotus.

Some say Mr. Obama should make a stronger case for his opponents' positions than his own. The cynics think straw-man arguments by definition prove that the speaker has no proof or logic on his side. Some would force presidential speechwriters to choose between a nifty setup for a zinger and boring rhetoric that puts audiences to sleep.

See, this straw man thing is pretty easy. I just rattled off three of them. Maybe I need to give some of this material to the big guy. He's been saying he needs more material on false choices.

Mr. Neusner is a principal with 30 Point Strategies and was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

What Became of the 'Freedom Agenda'? President Obama can avoid his predecessor's mistakes without alienating the people of countries like Iran.

President Obama's recent drop in the polls has not been accompanied by a corresponding rebound in public opinion concerning the foreign policy of his predecessor George W. Bush. This is particularly true with regard to the promotion of democracy in the Middle East, or what the Bush administration called the "Freedom Agenda." The consensus of foreign-policy experts on the left and right now deems this a naïve initiative that was rightly abandoned by the Bush administration itself shortly after the rise of Hamas in the Gaza elections of 2006.

While Mr. Obama paid lip service to the need for greater Middle East democracy in his June 2009 Cairo speech to the Muslim world, he has done very little concretely to back this up in terms of quiet pressure for democratic change on the part of allies like Egypt, Jordan or Morocco. Indeed, the administration's ramping up of military support for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh in the wake of the attempted Christmas day airliner bombing suggests that we've gone back to the traditional U.S. policy of reliance on Arab strongmen.

This would be a big mistake. For the core premises of the Freedom Agenda remain essentially correct, even as its enunciation in the midst of the Iraq invasion undercut its credibility. Mr. Obama runs the risk of falling in bed with the same set of Middle Eastern authoritarians and alienating broad political populations in the region. He may even live to see them blow up in his face for lack of legitimacy, just as the Shah of Iran did in 1979.

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The Bush administration asserted a number of points under the rubric of the Freedom Agenda that remain valid to the present moment. Back in 2003, President Bush said that "Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom . . . did nothing to make us safe. . . . As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment and violence ready for export."

In his second inaugural in January 2005, Mr. Bush went on to say that there was no cultural reason why the Arab world should remain the one part of the world resistant to the broad wave of democracy evident everywhere else.

As a report published last month by the U.S. Institute of Peace, "In Pursuit of Democracy and Security in the Greater Middle East," argues, there are good reasons for thinking that the lack of democracy in the Arab world is political rather than cultural. Arab authoritarians like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt have tolerated—and in some cases promoted—the participation of Islamist candidates in elections as part of a strategy to prove to Western backers that they are the only thing standing in the way of cataclysmic Islamic revolution.

They've also gotten good at a cynical game of state-managed liberalization, whereby they open up their political systems just enough to convince outsiders that they are "transitioning" to genuine democracy, only to clamp down again once their control is threatened.

All of this has led, in the view of the Institute of Peace report, to an increasingly dangerous political, social and ideological gap between rulers and their societies. And in this struggle between state and society, the U.S. is widely seen throughout the region as selfishly propping up an unjust and corrupt old order.

The problem with the Bush administration's Freedom Agenda wasn't its fundamental analysis, but the way that it was articulated in the midst of the highly unpopular Iraq war. Democracy promotion was used from the start to justify the invasion, and in the eyes of many Arabs became synonymous with American occupation.

The high-flown rhetoric of Bush's second inaugural, when he asserted that there could be no difference between U.S. security interests and our democratic ideals, was manifestly hyperbolic and led to inevitable charges of hypocrisy when the U.S. failed to endorse Hamas as the sole representatives of the Palestinians in Gaza. By making Middle East democracy promotion an instrument of the war on terror, the U.S. both tainted the cause of democracy itself and undermined the credibility of its own foreign policy.

Mr. Obama arrived in office with none of this baggage, and therefore had an opportunity to recommit the United States to peaceful democratic change. But the window is rapidly closing as the U.S. draws closer to the region's authoritarian rulers. In Jordan, for example, cooperation on the war on terrorism has been accompanied by the regime's curbing of political freedoms through the passing of nearly 100 temporary new laws. This has not prevented Mr. Obama from telling King Abdullah "Your Majesty, we need to clone you."

The most immediate danger lies in Yemen, which has become the focus of counterterrorism efforts since the abortive Christmas day attack. There is a genuine al Qaeda threat in Yemen, but President Saleh has made his own situation worse by clamping down on popular protest in the south of the country and picking a fight with the Houthis in the north.

Putting family members in key positions, his corrupt regime nonetheless received nearly $70 million from the U.S. in military assistance last year and is scheduled for even more in the future. Rather than aggressively pressing Mr. Saleh to negotiate with opposition groups and broaden his base of support, we are repeating the classic mistake of putting all of our eggs in one authoritarian basket and making cooperation on counterterrorism the primary criterion for economic and political support.

Taking a Middle Eastern democracy agenda seriously does not mean that we should return to the loud trumpeting of promises of support for regional democracy that we cannot keep. Nor does it mean playing the authoritarians' game of affirming fake liberalization as the real article of democracy.

It does mean working quietly behind the scenes to push friendly authoritarians towards a genuine broadening of political space in their countries through the repeal of countless exceptional laws, defamation codes, party registration statutes and the like that hinder the emergence of real democratic contestation.

The longstanding risk that true democratization will lead to takeover by radical Islamists remains real; our ideals do not require us to commit suicide in this manner. But the idea that radicalism is the only alternative to an illegitimate status quo is one we need not accept.

Mr. Fukuyama, professor of international political economy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, is author of "America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy" (Yale, 2006).

The Scalia v. Stevens Smackdown. In President Obama's view, corporations are anathema.

Nothing—not even George W. Bush—has sent liberaldom screaming into the streets more than the Supreme Court's recent 5-4 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. The Court's ruling that corporations have a free-speech right to express opinions about politicians running for office really let the furies out.

President Obama's in-their-face criticism of the Supreme Court over Citizens United at his State of the Union speech got pundits on every blogger barstool chattering about the propriety of this public smackdown.

That's nothing compared to how the Supremes smack each other inside their public decisions.

Justice John Paul Stevens dismissed the majority's opinion, written by Anthony Kennedy, as lacking "a scintilla of evidence" for its argument and making "only a perfunctory attempt" to root its reasons in the First Amendment views of the Constitution's Framers.

Daniel Henninger discusses the tensions between the two Supreme Court justices over the Citizens United case.

Justice Antonin Scalia then wrote a majority concurrence solely so that he could go mano a mano with Justice Stevens. A mere three sentences in, he unloads: "The dissent attempts this demonstration, however, in splendid isolation from the text of the First Amendment."

While the commentary on Citizens United rightly emphasized First Amendment law, the scrum inside the decision between Justices Stevens and Scalia, over the status of corporations in America, deserves more attention than it got.

Their dispute, and especially Justice Stevens's view of corporations, reveals a lot about why Mr. Obama and liberalism's left wing went nuts. It isn't just corporate political advertising that's anathema. Corporations themselves are anathema.

In his State of the Union swipe, Mr. Obama said the Citizens United decision would "open the floodgates for special interests." The "special interests," of course, is Democode for corporate interests. This week we learned Mr. Obama will try to convey his pro-business sentiments Feb. 24 to the Business Roundtable. Don't buy it.

Justice Stevens offered the historic and psychological basis for this foundational antipathy.

Martin Kozlowski

"Thomas Jefferson," he notes, "famously fretted that corporations would subvert the Republic." A citation quoted by the justice notes that "the word 'soulless' constantly recurs in debates over corporations"; and "corporations, it was feared, could concentrate the worst urges of whole groups of men."

But here's the public-philosophy belief that flows from this view: "The Framers thus took it as a given," in Justice Stevens's opinion, "that corporations could be comprehensively regulated (my emphasis) in the service of the public welfare."

In short, private corporations have not much, if anything, to do with the public good.

In his crack-back concurrence, Justice Scalia ridicules "the corporation-hating quotations the dissent has dredged up." He notes that most corporations back then had "state-granted monopoly privileges" (sort of like Fannie and Freddie today—columnist's footnote) and that modern corporations without these state privileges "would probably have been favored by most of our enterprising Founders—excluding, perhaps, Thomas Jefferson and others favoring perpetuation of an agrarian society."

He ends with a conservative belief: "To exclude or impede corporate speech is to muzzle the principal agents of the modern free economy."

America's Democrats and Republicans, crudely defined, are with this presidency and this Congress living today on opposite sides of a moon that they both call the United States.

In the universe inhabited by Justice Stevens and President Obama, corporations—the private sector—are a suspect abstraction, ever tending toward "the worst urges" which have to be "comprehensively regulated." The saints regulate the sinners.

If you think this way, what one does to the private sector, such as the proposed $90 billion bank tax, can never be wrong in any serious way, so long as the rationale offered is the "public good." Private-sector players are seen as barely more than paid galley slaves on the ship of state. So it is with the health-care bill's mammoth, comprehensive regulation of American medicine and insurance.

Mr. Obama seems genuinely perplexed that the opposition can't just, you know, sign onto it. What's their problem?

Evidently, the voters of Massachusetts have a problem with that and more.

In the past year, Mr. Obama and the Democratic Congress passed a $787 billion stimulus, seized banks and the auto industry, embarked on a $1 trillion reorganization of the private health-care system, and passed a fiscal 2010 budget that put spending as a percentage of GDP at 24.1%. These are very large claims for the public good.

This public-private tension is an ancient and never-ending debate in the U.S. But what we are seeing this year, in Massachusetts and elsewhere, is American voters arriving at a tipping point over the scale and role of government. Most Americans still go to work each day inside a private economy organized around tens of thousands of corporations. Their basic view of the world and that found inside Justice Stevens's dissent and this White House are out of sync.

Write to henninger@wsj.com

Republicans and the Health Care Pow-Wow. It's an opportunity to show which party has better ideas.

Some congressional Republicans want to turn down President Barack Obama's invitation for a nationally televised, Feb. 25 White House pow-wow on health care. They fear that if GOP leaders show up for the event, they will end up agreeing to a bad health-care bill in the name of bipartisanship.

Republican leaders should accept the invitation. The country rightly expects them to, even though it's a made-for-TV kabuki drama written, staged and directed by Mr. Obama.

It is also in the GOP's best interests. This is the party's best opportunity yet to contrast its good ideas with Democratic legislation.

Those ideas are far-reaching and significant. They include allowing small businesses to band together to get the same insurance discounts big companies get, passing tort reform to eliminate junk lawsuits that drive up the price of health care, and enacting reforms that would make health insurance portable for workers. They also include allowing people to buy health insurance across state lines, giving families the same health insurance tax breaks companies get, and empowering patients by making health prices more transparent.

By contrasting those ideas with ObamaCare, Republicans can give the lie to the White House charge that the GOP is the "party of no." For example, Republicans want Americans to be able to save more money tax free for health-care expenses. Democrats would reduce the existing amount that can be saved tax free, which this year is $3,050 for individuals, and tax people for using their savings to pay for over-the-counter drugs.

Mr. Obama will claim the legislation he wants would allow people to buy health insurance across state lines. But that's not exactly accurate. His approach is to allow states to do what they can already do: pass a law authorizing residents to buy insurance in another state. The problem is that this doesn't create a national market and, in any case, if Washington imposes mandates on what health insurance must cover, there won't be robust competition among insurers.

There are plenty of weaknesses in ObamaCare that Republicans can hone in on. They can point out that 10 years of tax increases and Medicare cuts pay for only four full years of new entitlements and that the projections for savings and tax revenues are based on gimmicks.

They can question whether congressional Democrats will actually cut Medicare by roughly $500 billion, as their bills call for. Why don't Democrats take up these Medicare cuts as a stand-alone bill? Passing such a bill would be a "confidence building measure," as Henry Kissinger might say.

Republicans can ask how Mr. Obama squares his pledge not to raise taxes on anyone making less than $250,000 a year with $20 billion in new taxes on medical devices and $80 billion on drugs. Even Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf has admitted in congressional testimony that these taxes will be passed on to patients.

Mr. Obama's demand that insurers be required to cover people with a pre-existing condition is problematic. Imposing such a mandate would encourage people to wait until they are sick to buy insurance when what we need to lower costs is more healthy people buying insurance. Mr. Obama would rope in the healthy by requiring that everyone buy health insurance or be fined. That mandate is very unpopular.

In a respectful but pointed tone, Republicans should question the special-interest provisions Democrats used to advance their bills in the House and Senate, such as exempting health plans provided to union members from a tax on Cadillac insurance plans. The public is already outraged by these special deals, and we may not yet know about all of them.

For example, commentators first thought only Florida seniors would be protected from cuts in government support for Medicare Advantage policies. But it turns out that Democratic senators in New Jersey and New York won similar protections for seniors in their states.

Mr. Obama's Feb. 25 meeting is not about hammering out a bipartisan consensus. It is part theater and part Chicago-style pressure politics.

It is also bluff and desperation. Mr. Obama knows the biggest obstacle before him is deep division within his party. That division is preventing the Democratic House from passing the Democratic Senate's health-care bill.

Republicans should remember they are near the end of the process rather than its beginning, when Mr. Obama's leverage was considerable. A year of his missteps have squandered a historically strong Democratic advantage on health care.

Americans don't like the health-care bills that have passed the House and Senate by a 58% to 38% margin in a new CNN/Opinion Research Poll and Gallup reports that 60% of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of the issue.

The public has made up its mind about ObamaCare. If Republicans prepare well, the pow-wow will be a chance to show Americans that the GOP has better ideas.

Mr. Rove, the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, is the author of the forthcoming book "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions).

Would Reagan Be a Tea Partier?

Ronald Reagan's children often disagreed on politics. Michael and Maureen, his two oldest from his marriage to actress Jane Wyman, became Republicans, while Ron Jr. and Patti, his children with Nancy, turned to the left. But all of the siblings were usually able to keep their disagreements from spilling out into public view.

Not this time. Ron Reagan, now a talk show host in Seattle, got the ball rolling when he told Joy Behar of CNN Headline News that his dad wouldn't have approved of either Sarah Palin or the "Tea Party" movement now roiling American politics. "Oh, I think he would be unamused by the tea partiers with their Hitler signs and all the rest of it," Mr. Reagan told Ms. Behar. "No, I don't think he'd be cottoning to that much at all."

As for the Republican Party today, Mr. Reagan called it a "true train wreck" and said both Ms. Palin and new Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were symbols of the decline of the GOP.

But Michael Reagan, a talk show host on the other side of the political spectrum, took sharp issue with that analysis. "I believe he would embrace the Tea Party movement, if he were alive today, and support the work of Sarah Palin, Scott Brown and others who espouse conservative principles, who are opening up the eyes of the public to what is happening to our nation," Mr. Reagan said in a statement. "There's no doubt that President Reagan would respect the power and political potency of this movement."

So who's right? Engaging in speculation about what someone departed might think about current events is always risky. But we do know some things about Ronald Reagan. First, he believed in not characterizing the extreme views of some as typifying an entire movement. When it comes to the Tea Partiers, the signs that show Barack Obama as a Hitler-like figure that feature so prominently in news coverage are often actually carried by supporters of Lyndon LaRouche, a left-wing fanatic who believes Mr. Obama is part of an international conspiracy.

And Reagan had kind words for the tax revolt movement that touched off Proposition 13's success in California. He called it a "prairie fire" sweeping the country and saluted the "brave patriots" who were carrying its message. Reagan supporters in California recall that he would often speak to groups that had more aggressive tax-cutting and anti-government agendas than today's Tea Parties.

So while no one knows for sure what the Gipper would be saying today, the best evidence we have is he would probably be quite at home with today's Tea Party movement. He often said that any nation that took more than 25% of a people's income faced the danger of inevitable decline. What sentiment could be more in agreement with today's Tea Party protests?

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

The Homegrown-Terrorist Threat

If 2001 was the year when international terrorism hit American soil, then 2009 was the year when Americans became the targets of domestic terrorism. In November, Army Major Nidal Malik Hasan, born in Virginia to Palestinian Muslim parents, killed 13 and wounded 30 in his one-man attack on fellow soldiers at Fort Hood in Texas. The massacre, which Senator Joseph Lieberman properly labeled “the most destructive terrorist act to be committed on American soil since 9/11,” capped a year of terrorist plots or conspiracies inside the United States, most of which were stopped by law enforcement in their planning stages. The notable fact about all these cases is that they are examples of so-called homegrown terrorism—meaning that they were planned by individuals either born or raised in the United States and executed without significant assistance from overseas networks.

In October, the American-born David Coleman Headley, who had changed his name from Daood Sayed Gilani to disguise his half-Pakistani origins, was arrested for planning an attack on the Danish newspaper that published cartoons depicting Muhammad in 2006 and for providing assistance to the Pakistan-based terrorist group that carried out the 2008 Mumbai attacks in which 170 were killed. Two days after Headley was charged, Pakistani authorities arrested five Muslim men born and raised in and around Washington, D.C., for planning to take up arms against coalition forces in Afghanistan. The Washington Five were all college students, “fun-loving, career-focused children that had a bright future for themselves,” in the words of a youth coordinator who knew them.

On June 1, 2009, a 23-year-old Army recruiter in Little Rock was shot and killed by an African-American convert to Islam who, upon his arrest, began complaining about American involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. A week before that, the Joint Terrorism Task Force, which coordinates some 40 local and federal law-enforcement agencies, arrested four men for attempting to shoot down military planes based at an Air National Guard base in Newburgh, New York, and detonate bombs at two synagogues in the Bronx.

Of the 30-odd attempted terrorist plots against the United States or American installations abroad that have been foiled since 9/11, roughly a third have been uncovered in the past year alone. What is new, and particularly frightening, about these recent attempts is that the budding perpetrators were initially indoctrinated inside the United States, with help from extremist websites or Islamic preachers. It was only after they had been brought some ways along the road to holy war that at least some of these would-be jihadists sought training and logistical support from al-Qaeda and others overseas.

This development has come as a surprise. It had become accepted wisdom that the openness of the United States and its acceptance of minority faiths and communities had helped to prevent the spread of the kind of Islamic radicalism that has gripped Western Europe over the past decade. Whereas European Muslims, many of them descendants of manual laborers imported from North Africa and the Middle East, comprise a ghettoized underclass and face great difficulty adapting to the rigid notions of European national identities, Muslims in the United States are, on average, better educated than most Americans and earn about the same amount.

In 2005, Spencer Ackermanof the New Republic trumpeted the seeming inoculation of American Muslims to jihadist enticement, concluding that “if the United States is looking for a way to win the hearts and minds of Muslims worldwide, it ought to first look at what it has accomplished at home.” Five years ago, Ackerman’s assessment seemed accurate. Today it seems complacent. Radicalization, we now know for a certainty, is happening here.

Indeed, it is happening here among those who would theoretically provide the evidence for Ackerman’s claim—Muslims born abroad who make their home in the United States. In September, Najibullah Zazi, a 24-year-old native of Afghanistan and legal resident, was charged with plotting to set off explosives against high-profile targets in New York City. Both Zazi and Betim Kaziu, a Kosovar Albanian who became a U.S. citizen and was indicted in September for conspiracy to commit murder abroad and provide material support to terrorists, turned to jihadism on American soil.

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In August 2007, the New York City Police Department released a report on the process of radicalization that leads to terrorist attacks. The study described an intricate four-step progression by which individuals, most likely to be Muslim men between the ages of 15 and 35, are led from their status as “unremarkable” citizens to would-be perpetrators of atrocities.

The process begins at a stage of “pre-radicalization” during which they are initially exposed to Salafism, an extremist form of Sunni Islam that commits its followers to the murder of infidels or those Muslims deemed insufficiently devout (Shiites, for example).

Next follows “self-identification,” a period in which the potential terrorist, usually catalyzed by a specific event, begins to disavow previously held worldviews and embraces the legitimacy of violent jihad. The third step is “indoctrination,” when, with the support of radicals in his ambit (usually imams or extremist peers), the individual becomes estranged from his former life and fully accepts Salafist ideology as his guiding purpose. Finally comes “Jihadization,” the operational phase of the process, when the budding terrorist takes part in training activities and the actual planning of terrorist attacks against specific targets. An Islamic upbringing or even prior knowledge of Islam is not necessary; indeed, most terrorists begin their lives with next to no Islamic identity whatsoever. In testimony late last year to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, the NYPD’s director of intelligence analysis, Mitchell D. Silber, stated that “the vast majority of individuals who end up radicalizing to violence do not start out as religiously observant or knowledgeable.”

At the time the 2007 report was released, the kind of homegrown terrorist plots that would surface with a vengeance in 2009 were few and far between—six men convicted of a plot in Lackawanna, New York, in 2002; another six outside Portland, Oregon, that same year; and the seven who sought to attack Fort Dix in New Jersey in 2007 most prominent among them. The 2007 NYPD report focused on attacks that had taken place in Europe, where homegrown terrorists committed mass atrocities on the Madrid and London commuter systems and murdered Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh.

While they come from diverse ethnic and regional backgrounds, most of the men involved in homegrown plots fit a similar profile: they are middle class and well-educated. The same can be said of many, if not most, Islamist terrorists, whether it be the son of the former Nigerian finance minister who attempted to bring down a plane on Christmas Day near Detroit; the seven British doctors (and one medical technician) who plotted to carry out car bombings in 2007; or Osama bin Laden himself, whose family operates a massive construction empire worth billions of dollars. This reality contradicts the trendy, post-9/11 contention, as wrong then as it is now, that terrorism is caused by poverty.

In this sense, America’s homegrown terrorists resemble Sayyid Qutb, the Egyptian-born cleric widely credited as the leading intellectual founder of contemporary political Islam and a prominent figure in the Muslim Brotherhood. Qutb, who gained prominence in the 1950s and was executed by Gamal Abdel Nasser’s regime in 1966, was radicalized not by his childhood experiences or encounters with American imperialism but rather by a two-year visit to the United States that commenced in 1948. It was there that he developed a hatred for what he considered to be the unparalleled materialism and licentiousness of American culture; he was particularly scandalized by a church dance in Greeley, Colorado. “Jazz,” Qutb wrote of the prototypical American, “is his preferred music, and it is created by Negroes to satisfy their love of noise and to whet their sexual desires.”

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To be sure, and it bears repeating, the murderous actions of Nidal Hasan and Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad (the murderer of the military recruiter in Little Rock) were not embraced by any appreciable number of American Muslims, and there is no reason to believe the terrorists’ actions enjoy even tacit support in that community. American Muslims have proved crucial to both domestic and international counterterrorism efforts and will continue to play a vital role in identifying extremist influences and thwarting future attacks. But if there is one lesson to be learned from the past year’s events, it is that the only prerequisite for a successful terrorist act—whether it be the shooting of a single military recruiter or the destruction of a major landmark—is a lone determined person able to elude law enforcement and the increasingly alert eyes of the general public.

Despite all the available evidence pointing to the destruction that homegrown terrorists can wreak on free societies, some seem to have drawn the completely opposite conclusion about their proliferation and potential. They have interpreted Hasan’s “loner” credentials as, in the words of Ezra Klein, a blogger for the Washington Post, “encouraging,” for it indicates that his killing spree was not connected to a larger series of plots designed and carried out by an extensive, international network, all orchestrated from remote, hard-to-target locations in foreign countries.

Given the obvious difficulties of carrying on military operations overseas—which, had Hasan been aided and abetted by a foreign government or terrorist group headquartered in another country, would have been the most likely American response to his attack—perhaps this is in some sense reassuring. Yet while there may be a level of cursory relief to be gained from this analysis, the implications of what Nidal Hasan managed to pull off, without the assistance of a state or subnational terrorist group, may be even more disturbing than if he had been a foreign agent. The only evidence unearthed of his connection to foreign sources is a series of e-mails he exchanged years ago with Anwar al-Aulaqi, a Salafist imam whose work Nidal Hasan found on the Internet. The imam himself was a visitor at the very mosque in northern Virginia frequented by the five Washingtonians who were in Pakistan late last year.

What the events of November 5, 2009, demonstrate is that it takes only a single, freelance extremist willing to give his life in the service of a murderous cause to carry out a terrorist attack on American soil. The perpetrator need never even establish formal contacts with al-Qaeda or any of its affiliated organizations. All he requires is a militant ideology and the necessary implements to carry out the murder of innocents, tools readily available in the United States to anyone disposed to commit such a crime. That person has nearly unlimited freedom of movement and action.

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How to combat the homegrown terrorism threat? The first step is to recognize the problem. And it is this condition that may prove most difficult. “It would be a shame—as great a tragedy as this was—it would be a shame if our diversity became a casualty as well,” General George Casey, the Army chief of staff, said in response to the Fort Hood massacre. While it is no doubt important to welcome Muslims into the American military (given that we are fighting wars in two Muslim countries), this sort of remark indicates the atmosphere of political correctness that hangs over this issue like a dense fog. Despite the evidence that poured in over the days and weeks after the Fort hood attack, a variety of pundits and government officials refused to acknowledge that what motivated Hasan to kill was extremist Islam, explaining away the killings as the actions of a deranged recluse, no different from those of an unhinged postal worker.

Such remonstrations seem to follow every warning about homegrown terrorism. When the NYPD released its 2007 report, the Council on American Islamic Relations, one of the country’s most prominent and outspoken Muslim groups, stated that “its sweeping generalizations and mixing of unrelated elements may serve to cast a pall of suspicion over the entire American Muslim community.”

The logic of this analysis—that America now faces a homegrown terrorism threat and that Homeland Security may have to increase its surveillance of American Muslims—has proved to be too onerous for many to bear. Predictably, some on the Left have argued that the best way to avert future terrorist attacks, whether foreign or domestic in origin, is to strike at the root of the problem: American foreign policy. Radically altering America’s role in the world has long been a signature cause of the Left, and the admonition that failure to do so may result in the deaths of innocent Americans ostensibly gives the argument more salience. This case was made most plainly by New America Foundation fellow Robert Wright in the New York Times. In a piece entitled “Who Created Major Hasan,” Wright essentially answered the question as a formulation of cartoonist Walt Kelly’s conservationist mantra, “We have met the enemy, and he is us.” While conceding that Hasan is “crazy,” Wright wrote that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the opposition to those interventions by Muslims around the world, led him to see why “the hawkish war-on-terrorism strategy—a global anti-jihad that creates nonstop imagery of Americans killing Muslims—is so dubious.”*

Of course, terrorism against the United States began long before American boots ever landed in Afghanistan or Iraq; surely Wright is familiar with the chronology of 9/11 in relation to those two wars. Moreover, if Hasan and his ideological confreres were legitimately concerned with the fate of the Muslim umma, they would direct their anger toward the likes of al--Qaeda and the regime in Tehran, which are daily responsible for the deliberate and wanton slaughter of Muslim civilians. It is true, and terrorism analysts working with the NYPD and other government agencies readily admit, that the endless images of bloodshed in Afghanistan and Iraq provide Islamists with easy visual recruiting tools and that their task has become easier thanks to the Internet. But surely the worst thing the United States could do—after surveying the mayhem successfully, and potentially, executed by domestic Muslim extremists—is to decide that the way to solve this problem is to bow to their demands.

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One would think that the increase in successful and near successful domestic-terrorism plots over the past year would engender some sort of recognition on the part of people who think and write about current events that a very real threat exists. And, to be sure, reading the mainstream press and listening to elite pundits over the past year, it is clear that the peril of domestic terrorism does occupy their thoughts. But it is decidedly not Islamist terrorism that they consider to be the great danger facing the country but rather violent extremism of an altogether different sort: “right-wing” extremism.

The notion that the country is seriously threatened by right-wing terrorism picked up force almost immediately after President Barack Obama was sworn into office and opposition to his domestic and foreign-policy agenda crystallized. Not a day has gone by without manifestations of this disagreement, no matter how innocuous, being deemed “racist” or a danger to the general peace of the Republic. Initially a pastime of the administration’s defenders in the media, criticism of administration policy soon became a governmental concern. In April, it was revealed that the Department of Homeland Security had produced a report entitled “Right-Wing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment,” which acknowledged the radicalizing effect that the election of the nation’s first black president might have on far-Right domestic organizations.

The color of the president’s skin is no small thing, not only for what it says about the amazing progress this country has made in light of its tortured racial history but also in respect to the resentment and anger it has stirred in a very small segment of the American populace. What was irritating about the DHS report, however, was its attempt to conflate legitimate critics of the Obama administration’s domestic agenda, about which reasonable people can disagree, with those who would resort to violence out of their maniacal belief that a supposedly Kenyan-born Manchurian Candidate is leading the country to perdition. But despite mounting evidence over the past year that a domestic Islamist threat was growing, the Left could not draw its attention away from the specter of “right-wing” violence.

In September, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman went so far as to draw a direct parallel between the “poisonous political environment that was interpreted by one right-wing Jewish nationalist as a license to kill [Yitzak] Rabin” in 1995 and today’s America. In September, liberals rushed to condemn, in the words of one of their more prominent writers, “Southern populist terrorism whipped up by the GOP and its Fox and talk radio cohorts,” after a federal census worker was found hanging from a tree in Kentucky with the word “FED” carved into his chest.

“The Next Generation of Lynching?” one popular left-wing blog asked, noting that “the levels of right-wing vitriol have reached psychotic new heights.” When it was later revealed that the man had killed himself, most likely in an attempt to have his family collecton a life-insurance policy, most of these bloggers were silent. The hysteria reached its height in September when, in a live Capitol Hill press conference, the Democratic Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, tearfully invoked the 1978 murder of San Francisco City Supervisor Harvey Milk as an example of where conservative commentary about Obama and the Democratic Congress would inevitably lead.

Had these newfound watchdogs of political comity shown anything near such concern while the last occupant of the White House was in office, their complaints today might be more credible. But they seem to unearth this conscience only when conservatives are out of power. Never mind the series of known (in addition to the many, presumably unreported) assassination attempts against the previous president, so reviled by the same politicians and pundits who now decry the loss of political decorum, or that his murder had actually been delightedly fictionalized in both novelistic (Checkpoint, by Nicholson Baker) and cinematic (Death of a President) form. President Obama, the mandarins of the media assure us, has been the recipient of a hatred the venom of which has not been seen since the assassination of John F. Kennedy (whom, it is always worth pointing out, was murdered by a Communist). The not-so-subtle purpose of this campaign has been to associate the deplorable rhetoric of a handful in the right-wing fever swamp with the appreciable mass of conservatives, thus painting the president’s critics as racists prone to violence.

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Ultimately, there is little more that the United States can do to prevent homegrown terrorism, other than maintain the counter-terrorism policies enacted by the Bush administration in the aftermath of 9/11, policies that proved so successful in preventing another terrorist attack on American soil. Given the rhetoric and actions of the present administration, which wants to shut down the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, prosecute CIA officers for using interrogation techniques disfavored by the American Civil Liberties Union, and generally approach the war on Islamic supremacism as a legalistic exercise, it is hardly certain that such a course will be followed. But the least we can ask of our nation’s political and intellectual elite is that they stop wailing about the phantom menace of “right-wing” terrorism and start paying more attention to the genuine article.


James Kirchick is an assistant editor of the New Republic and online columnist for the New York Daily News.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Bono & My-Ex

This short film was produced for the Irish Film Board’s Virtual Cinema Scheme last year. The premise of this entertaining video is “just when you thought you’d closed the book on that relationship, a rockstar comes and stirs it all up….”

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Why Mortgage Modification Isn't Working. The loan adjustment success rate is just 1%.

Last year more than two million Americans lost their homes to foreclosure. This year that number is expected to be even higher.

Foreclosure takes a huge toll on homeowners and their families, and sends shock waves throughout the economy. Yet since the start of the recession in 2007, more than five million homes have been taken back by lenders. The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that as many as 13 million more homes could fall into foreclosure over the next five years.

To combat the foreclosure epidemic, the Obama administration created the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) last February. As part of this program, the Treasury Department plans to spend up to $75 billion in financing mortgage "modifications" for struggling homeowners.

The modification process changes the terms of the mortgage with the aim of making it more affordable, typically by reducing a borrower's interest rate, lowering his monthly payment, or waiving or reducing past charges. Unfortunately, HAMP has had less than stellar results.

Since the program began, more than three million homeowners have become eligible for assistance. In turn, mortgage servicers have reached out to these borrowers, initiating the modification process. Roughly 760,000 homeowners have received loan modifications on a trial basis. But just 31,000 modifications have been made permanent.

That's a success rate of just 1%. This means that up to 99% of eligible homeowners struggling with their mortgage payments have been unable thus far to modify their loans.

A big reason for HAMP's limited success is that the government is suffocating banks with counterproductive accounting rules. Under current law, if a bank modifies a mortgage it must record the write-down as an expense on its books. For example, if a homeowner's monthly mortgage payment is reduced by $400 per month for 24 months, the bank has to report that it "lost" $9,600 ($400 times 24 months).

The bank, though, didn't lose any money—it's still scheduled to receive the totality of the loan principal, just less interest.

This rule, for obvious reasons, makes banks reluctant to modify. They don't want to take the "loss," which can get very big for larger mortgages with long modified periods. So there's a huge financial disincentive to offer modification.

The incentives are misaligned elsewhere, as well. Mortgages are often sold by the original lender to a third-party investor. Problem is, it's often not in the interest of that outside firm to modify the original loan. In fact, mortgage servicers get additional fees if a home forecloses. Similarly, if a mortgage has been folded in with other loans as part of a larger financial device, such as a mortgage-backed security, modification could reduce the monthly cash stream that device generates.

Another obstacle comes from auditors and regulators, who are imposing an ever-increasing load of paperwork on customers and banks looking to modify. In many cases, there are more forms needed to modify a loan than to get a mortgage in the first place.

Finally, regulators haven't done enough to protect banks from "strategic defaulters"—that is, homeowners who aren't facing financial difficulty but purposely underpay (or stop paying) their mortgages in the hopes of getting a modification. Strategic defaulters suck away bank resources and attention, making it that much harder to service people facing true hardship.

At ING Direct we have over 2,500 modified mortgages on our books. And our redefault rate for loans that were modified six months ago or more is 8%—substantially lower than the average for government-guaranteed loans of 44%-53% and the overall industry average of 25%.

We, like other banks, are doing our best to keep people in their homes. But the government has to help—not by passing out more dollars, but by bringing some common sense to the rules of the game.

The Treasury Department is aiming for three million to four million permanent mortgage modifications by 2012. To get anywhere close to that number—and to prevent this country from sliding even deeper into a recession—regulators need to modify the modification process.

Mr. Kuhlmann is CEO of ING Direct USA.

Obama Versus Bush on Spending

'If Massachusetts puts Brown in, it's a message of 'that's enough.' Let's stop the giveaways and let's get jobs going."

Marlene Connolly is a 73-year-old Massachusetts Democrat who cast her first vote for a Republican in supporting Scott Brown. Her quote and story comes to us via the New York Times, but she stands out for this reason: She shows us that those who actually cast ballots in the Bay State did so because they are frustrated with the administration's unrestrained federal spending and failed economic recovery policies.

And here's what Washington needs to keep in mind as it debates the meaning of Massachusetts. Ramming health care through now won't insulate Democrats from voter ire in November. It will feed a fire over spending that is already blistering them.

But don't take my word for it. Consider that the administration is now busy scrambling to find a way to dodge responsibility for its own reckless fiscal record. That much was on display recently when David Axelrod, a political strategist for the president, penned an opinion piece in the Washington Post that took aim directly at me.

Mr. Axelrod wrote that no one is entitled to his own facts, even as he argued that George W. Bush is responsible for Barack Obama's deficits. He argued that Mr. Bush forced the hand of this administration by leaving office in the midst of a sharp recession.

That argument won't fly for two reasons. First, at some point this administration has to take responsibility for itself. It's also not even close to accurate. Consider that from Jan. 20, 2001, to Jan. 20, 2009, the debt held by the public grew $3 trillion under Mr. Bush—to $6.3 trillion from $3.3 trillion at a time when the national economy grew as well.

By comparison, from the day Mr. Obama took office last year to the end of the current fiscal year, according to the Office of Management and Budget, the debt held by the public will grow by $3.3 trillion. In 20 months, Mr. Obama will add as much debt as Mr. Bush ran up in eight years.

Mr. Obama's spending plan approved by Congress last February calls for doubling the national debt in five years and nearly tripling it in 10.

Mr. Bush's deficits ran an average of 3.2% of GDP, slightly above the post World War II average of 2.7%. Mr. Obama's plan calls for deficits that will average 4.2% over the next decade.

Team Obama has been on history's biggest spending spree, which has included a $787 billion stimulus, a $30 billion expansion of a child health-care program, and a $410 billion federal spending bill that increased nondefense discretionary spending 10% for the last half of fiscal year 2009. Mr. Obama also hiked nondefense discretionary spending another 12% for fiscal year 2010.

Mr. Bush did move to give voters more control over their tax dollars. Both his Social Security reform ideas and the drug program he created offered templates for driving federal spending curves in the right direction, counter to what Democrats wanted to do.

Democrats, for example, proposed creating a prescription drug program as an alternative to the one Mr. Bush proposed that would have cost a projected $800 billion over 10 years. The Bush drug benefit was originally expected to cost half that amount and today costs a third less than what it was initially expected to cost because it uses market forces to drive prices down.

Mr. Axelrod claims the pork-laden stimulus package has been a success. But Mr. Obama told Americans that if it were passed, unemployment wouldn't rise above 8%. It is now 10%. The president also said it would create 3.7 million jobs, 90% of which would be in the private sector. By Mr. Obama's standards, the stimulus failed miserably.

Mr. Bush did sign the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) into law and loaned $240 billion to banks. But those loans are being returned at a profit to the Treasury. Rather than using those funds to pay down the deficit, Mr. Obama wants to use them for new spending. What's more, he has lavished some $320 billion from TARP on car companies, union allies, and pet causes that will never be fully returned.

Mr. Axelrod boasts Mr. Obama's proposed health reforms will "not add to the federal deficit." But if that turns out to be true, it will only be because Massachusetts voters just elected a senator who promises to vote against those reforms.

In going after Mr. Bush's fiscal record, Mr. Axelrod unwittingly revealed why Democrats are losing. Mr. Obama and congressional Democrats have made a mess of the nation's finances and are desperate to pin the blame on someone else. It's not likely to work.

Even in deep blue Massachusetts, voters aren't standing idly by while the administration puts the nation on a dangerous trajectory. When Democrats lose a state they carried by 26 points a little more than a year ago, very little is safe for Mr. Obama's party this fall.

Mr. Rove, the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, is the author of the forthcoming book "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions).

Monday, January 18, 2010

The Roots of Obama Worship

BY James W. Ceaser

On gospel, Abba and the death of the record: an audience with Brian Eno

He's been a Roxy original, the inventor of 'ambient', Bowie's muse, the brain in Talking Heads and U2's 'fifth man'. Now Eno tells us where he's heading next

brian-eno-ambient-studio

Brian Eno in his studio. Photograph: Harry Borden

When influential music website Pitchfork listed its 100 greatest albums of the 1970s – which in certain other lists is calculated to be the greatest decade for rock music – the modestly immodest, driven, musical non-musician Brian Eno was directly and indirectly involved in at least a quarter of them, including the number one, Low, on which he collaborated with a nomadic, post-"Fame" David Bowie and the producer Tony Visconti. As an intellectually mobile loner, scene-setter, systems lover, obstinate rebel, techno-prophet, sensual philosopher, courteous progressive, close listener, gentle heretic, sound planner, adviser explorer, pedant and slick conceptual salesman, and devoted fan of the new, undrab and surprising, wherever it fell between John Cage and Little Richard, or Duchamp and doo wop, or Mondrian and Moog, Eno busily and bossily remodelled pop music during the 70s. He looked at what the Velvet Underground, Can, Steve Reich and the Who had done, went forth and multiplied. Eno created an atmosphere, and helped determine what the history of electronic music was between the avant garde 1950s and the pop 21st century.

He demonstrated – as an abstract part of the early and surreal Roxy Music, the evocative Bowie Berlin trilogy Heroes/Low/Lodger, the nervy NY Talking Heads, as a floating collaborator with Nico, John Cale, Robert Wyatt, Cluster, Robert Fripp, Kevin Ayers, Jon Hassell and Harold Budd, as stern futurist mentor to Devo and Ultravox, as discerning curator of the beautifully conceived contemporary music label Obscure, as careful discoverer of the pulseless, wordless, eventless, timeless music he lovingly called "ambient" – that pop music was where you could be the kind of artist he wanted to be. In 1981, he designed the influential sound and content of My Life in the Bush of Ghosts with David Byrne – the prestigious culmination of his solo and group work in the 1970s, the studio combining of inner space, other worlds, random impressions, scrupulous visions, found sound, taped memories, cut-up text, stolen rhythms, daring edits, painted space, original borrowing, inquisitive permutations, mutant gospel and electronic interference.Then there was U2 and recently, as if relishing the snobbish horror of those who dismiss U2 as pompous irritants, he's attended to another ambitious four-piece male rock group with delusions of splendour, Coldplay, producing their last multi-million selling album and now, at the age of 61, finishing their next. A mischievous ghost of the glammed up art pop star Eno that was first noticed as part of the theatre of Roxy Music now haunts the sound and image of the two biggest rock bands in the world who would claim to be, in fact, post-Eno as much as post-punk. Coldplay didn't really belong anywhere before Eno apart from inside their own success. Now they have attached themselves via Eno to a very particular history of avant pop practice. Eno himself is prone to chuckle good naturedly when faced with bemusement at his connection to Coldplay.

He stays behind the scenes, more likely to curate an art festival or present a public lecture on something to do with pleasure, beauty, atheism, perfume or nuclear disarmament than appear to have anything to do with rock or pop music. If Roxy Music are ever spotted together on stage, he will be somewhere else, searching for something new to astound him. Much, naturally, has changed since the volatile, fussy, sublime Eno of For Your Pleasure, Here Come The Warm Jets, Discreet Music, Heroes and Once in a Lifetime, but he's still talking about what he does, and why, working out his place, the place of art, the history of progress, the enigma of meaning, the mechanics of creativity, the mystery of aesthetics, reluctant to think too much about his past in case, as he says, he starts to feel "useless awe towards his former self" but politely prepared to look back at his work if he thinks someone might find it useful. When you meet him to discuss something or other to do with his always perfectly organised research and development thoughts about something or other, you arrive as he is finishing one conversation with someone about, say, how technology changes the way our brains work, and as you leave someone else is arriving for a conversation about, say, the shrinking divisions between art and science. Or how Jeremy Clarkson almost moved into the house next to his office which was previously owned by Jason Donovan.

I talked with him as part of a series of conversations that were filmed for a BBC Arena documentary.

On talking: 1

"I heard a recording that had been made of me 35 years ago chatting with some friends and I thought the tape must have sped up because I sounded so fast. When ­others spoke, they were at a normal speed. It was me, I was speaking so fast. What I find both disappointing and reassuring is that I was saying exactly those things I will be saying today. I don't know what to make of that. A few different references, but the basic ideas haven't changed at all. No difference whatsoever! I suppose it's good to see I've been consistent as sometimes over the years it seems as though it's all been a bit incoherent, a bit of this, a bit of that, a while doing this, then one of those, followed by three of those. It seems all over the place when I'm doing it. Listening to me now talking then suggests there has been a pattern."

On the intensity of ideas

"If you grow up in a very strong religion like Catholicism you certainly cultivate in yourself a certain taste for the intensity of ideas. You expect to be engaged with ideas strongly whether you are for or against them. If you are part of a religion that very strongly insists that you believe then to decide not to do that is quite a big hurdle to jump over. You never forget the thought process you went through. It becomes part of your whole intellectual picture."

On listening

"If you think of the mid- to late-50swhen all of this started to happen for me, the experience of listening to sound was so different from now. Stereo didn't exist. If you listened to music outside of church, apart from live music, which was very rare, it was through tiny speakers. It was a nice experience but a very small experience. So to go into a church, which is a specially designed and echoey space, and it has an organ, and my grandfather built the organ in the church where we went, suddenly to hear music and singing was amazing. It was like hearing someone's album on a tiny transistor radio and then you go and see them in a 60,000-seater. It's huge by comparison. That had a lot to do with my feeling about sound and space, which became a big theme for me. How does space make a difference to sound, what's the difference between hearing something in this room and then another room. Can you imagine other rooms where you can hear music? It also made a difference to how I feel about the communality of music in that the music I liked the most, singing in church, was done by a group of people who were not skilled – they were just a group of people, I knew them in the rest of the week as the coal man and the baker."

On destiny

"It was a dilemma for me at the end of my time at school. Am I going into music or painting ? The Who were important to me when I was working out whether I would go into fine art or popular art. I felt they had found an important position between the two. Then the Velvet Underground came along and also made it clear how you could straddle the two somehow. It helped make my mind up to go into music."

On recording

"I came out of this funny place where I was interested in the experimental ideas of Cornelius Cardew, John Cage and Gavin Bryars, but also in pop music. Pop was all about the results and the feedback. The experimental side was interested in process more than the actual result – the results just happened and there was often very little control over them, and very little feedback. Take Steve Reich. He was an important composer for me with his early tape pieces and his way of having musicians play a piece each at different speeds so that they slipped out of synch.

"But then when he comes to record a piece of his like, say, Drumming, he uses orchestral drums stiffly played and badly recorded. He's learnt nothing from the history of recorded music. Why not look at what the pop world is doing with recording, which is making incredible sounds with great musicians who really feel what they play. It's because in Reich's world there was no real feedback. What was interesting to them in that world was merely the diagram of the piece, the music merely existed as an indicator of a type of process. I can see the point of it in one way, that you just want to show the skeleton, you don't want a lot of fluff around it, you just want to show how you did what you did.As a listener who grew up listening to pop music I am interested in results. Pop is totally results-oriented and there is a very strong feedback loop. Did it work? No. We'll do it differently then. Did it sell? No. We'll do it differently then. So I wanted to bring the two sides together. I liked the processes and systems in the experimental world and the attitude to effect that there was in the pop, I wanted the ideas to be seductive but also the results."

On being like nothing else

"In my house in Oxfordshire, we have this big, beautiful Andrew Logan sculpture of a lovely Pegasus with blue glass wings. When I get a taxi from the station, a driver will always comment on it because it is so striking. What they often say is, 'What does that stand for then?' Or, 'What does that mean?', based on the idea that something exists because it has to tell you something, or it refers to something else, and I realise that this notion is foreign to me. The earliest paintings I loved were always the most non-referential paintings you can imagine, by painters such as Mondrian. I was thrilled by them because they didn't refer to anything else. They stood alone and they were just charged magic objects that did not get their strength from being connected to anything else."

On singing

"I belong to a gospel choir. They know I am an atheist but they are very tolerant. Ultimately, the message of gospel music is that everything's going to be all right. If you listen to millions of gospel records – and I have – and try to distil what they all have in common it's a sense that somehow we can triumph. There could be many thousands of things. But the message… well , there are two messages… one is a kind of optimism for the future rather than a pessimism. Gospel music is never pessimistic, it's never 'oh my god, its all going down the tubes', like the blues often is. Gospel music is always about the possibility of transcendence, of things getting better. It's also about the loss of ego, that you will win through or get over things by losing yourself, becoming part of something better. Both those messages are completely universal and are nothing to do with religion or a particular religion. They're to do with basic human attitudes and you can have that attitude and therefore sing gospel even if you are not religious."

On the synthesiser: 1

"One of the important things about the synthesiser was that it came without any baggage. A piano comes with a whole history of music. There are all sorts of cultural conventions built into traditional instruments that tell you where and when that instrument comes from. When you play an instrument that does not have any such historical background you are designing sound basically. You're designing a new instrument. That's what a synthesiser is essentially. It's a constantly unfinished instrument. You finish it when you tweak it, and play around with it, and decide how to use it. You can combine a number of cultural references into one new thing."

On the synthesiser: 2

"Instruments sound interesting not because of their sound but because of the relationship a player has with them. Instrumentalists build a rapport with their instruments which is what you like and respond to. If you were sitting down now to design an instrument you would not dream of coming up with something as ridiculous as an acoustic guitar. It's a strange instrument, it's very limited and it doesn't sound good. You would come up with something much better. But what we like about acoustic guitars is players who have had long relationships with them and know how to do something beautiful with them. You don't have that with synthesisers yet. They are a very new instrument. They are constantly renewing so people do not have time to build long relationships with them. So you tend to hear more of the technology and less of the rapport. It can sound less human. However ! That is changing. And there is a prediction that I made a few years ago that I'm very pleased to see is coming true – synthesisers that have inconsistency built into them. I have always wanted them to be less consistent. I like it that one note can be louder than the note next to it."

On the naming of things

"A way to make new music is to imagine looking back at the past from a future and imagine music that could have existed but didn't. Like East African free jazz, which as far as I know does not exist. To some extent, this was how ambient music emerged. My interest in making music has been to create something that does not exist that I would like to listen to, not because I wanted a job as a musician. I wanted to hear music that had not yet happened, by putting together things that suggested a new thing which did not yet exist. It's like having a ready-made formula if you are able to read it. One of the innovations of ambient music was leaving out the idea that there should be melody or words or a beat… so in a way that was music designed by leaving things out – that can be a form of innovation, knowing what to leave out. All the signs were in the air all around with ambient music in the mid 1970s, and other people were doing a similar thing. I just gave it a name. Which is exactly what it needed. A name. A name. Giving something a name can be just the same as inventing it. By naming something you create a difference. You say that this is now real. Names are very important."

On talking: 2

"I like to talk about all sorts of things. I've never seen the downside of it. I've never minded the egghead tag. It makes sense with my physiognomy anyway. I've fought for years the idea that rock and popular art is only about passion and fashion and nothing to do with thinking and examining and if you do think there is something suspicious about you."

On hindsight

"Instead of shooting arrows at someone else's target, which I've never been very good at, I make my own target around wherever my arrow happens to have landed. You shoot your arrow and then you paint your bulls eye around it, and therefore you have hit the target dead centre."

On a celebration of human frailty

"The other day I heard a band who had the worst singer, the most out of time drummer and most out of tune guitarist I've ever heard on a professional record, and I thought, at last, the reaction against pro-tools perfection has set in. A pro-tools engineer would have sorted it all out, but this band was an actual celebration of human frailty. It was so rough it was really encouraging."

On Abba

"In the 70s, no one would admit that they liked Abba. Now it's fine. It's so kitsch. Kitsch is an excuse to defend the fact that they feel a common emotion. If it is kitsch. you put a sort of frame around something – to suggest you are being ironic. Actually, you aren't. You are really enjoying it. I like Abba. I did then and I didn't admit it. The snobbery of the time wouldn't allow it. I did admit it when I heard 'Fernando'; I could not bear to keep the secret to myself anymore and also because I think there is a difference between Swedish sentimentality and LA sentimentality because the Swedish are so restrained emotionally. When they get sentimental it's rather sweet and charming. What we really got me with "Fernando" was what the lower singer was doing, I don't know her name. I spent months trying to learn that. It's so obscure what she's doing and very hard to sing. And then from being a sceptic I went over the top in the other direction. I really fell for them."

On Frank Zappa

"Zappa was important to me because I realised I didn't have to make music like he did. I might have made a lot of music like he did if he had not done it first and made me realise that I did not want to go there. I did not like his music but I am grateful that he did it. Sometimes you learn as much from the things you don't like as from the things you do like. The rejection side is as important as the endorsement part. You define who you are and where you are by the things that you know you are not. Sometimes that's all the information you have to go on. I'm not that kind of person. You don't quite know where you are but you find yourself in the space left behind by the things you've rejected."

On working with U2 and Coldplay at the same time

"It was fine. A few jokes. I felt like a ­philanderer who was with another woman and might make a slip and call her by the wrong name in bed. I had one computer that had all of the Coldplay stuff and all the U2 stuff. I had to very carefully label each folder because I was paranoid that I might end up with the same basic track for each group and I wouldn't notice until it was too late. There was a chance the same track might have appeared on both albums."

On ego

"Bono commits the crime of rising above your station. To the British, it's the worst thing you can do. Bono is hated for doing something considered unbecoming for a pop star – meddling in things that apparently have nothing to do with him. He has a huge ego, no doubt about it. On the other hand, he has a huge brain and a huge heart. He's just a big kind of person. That's not easy for some to deal with. They don't mind in Italy. They like larger-than-life people there. In most places in the world they don't mind him. Here, they think he must be conning them."

On reporting in the 1990s that there was too much music being released and he was not going to add to it any more

"I didn't think it through to be honest."

On the end of an era

"I think records were just a little bubble through time and those who made a living from them for a while were lucky. There is no reason why anyone should have made so much money from selling records except that everything was right for this period of time. I always knew it would run out sooner or later. It couldn't last, and now it's running out. I don't particularly care that it is and like the way things are going. The record age was just a blip. It was a bit like if you had a source of whale blubber in the 1840s and it could be used as fuel. Before gas came along, if you traded in whale blubber, you were the richest man on Earth. Then gas came along and you'd be stuck with your whale blubber. Sorry mate – history's moving along. Recorded music equals whale blubber. Eventually, something else will replace it."