Saturday, January 28, 2006

Fireworks & CNY

It's 11:54 p.m CST and the fireworks have been going non-stop since it got dark. I'm told that they'll go late into the morning darkness. Prior to that it was firecrackers. Hundreds, possibly thousands, at a time. Lines of them all connected and stretched of 5-15 feet of pavement.

All over the city, no matter where you go, you hear them and see them. Spontaneous personal shows on the streets. None officially put on by the city or the gov't. Just citizens and expats putting these on for themselves.

Tonight, people have brought box after box after box out of their cars and vans and unload them onto the street. Some of the boxes are rather large -- larger than copy paper boxes. From the 18th floor overlooking the Bund, we can simultaneously watch 10-20 different areas of the city skyline light up with fireworks going anywhere from 10-40 stories high...and that's just looking out the one side of the apartment. These are just Roman Candle like displays either. These are full-on fireworks displays like you see in the U.S. on the 4th of July. Some of them are being launched right next to our building and going within a few feet of it. Wrappers from the fireworkers are actually hitting our plate glass windows.

Children and the women that take some of the casings and light small fires on the streets with them. The street outside our apartment is quite red with wrappers from them and empty boxes.

I have ever seen anything like it. You can hear music being played. It's quite spectacular. It's basically a combination of the 4th of July, Christmas (presents are giving), Thanksgiving (huge daily feasts) and New Year's all rolled into one. There are so many fireworks the sky has gone completely hazy and you can no longer even see the skyscrapers across the river. You open a window and the air is thick with the smell of gun powder or whatever the main ingredient of fireworks is.

Interesting to think about the liberties here vs. the U.S. This would never happen in the U.S. for numerous safety reasons and the gov't wanting to keep people safe from themselves. Here, the gov't controls other things but gives them a free rein with fireworks, firecrackers, etc.

At midnight, the skies went crazy. It's four after and still the steady stream continues, some within 20 feet of our apartment windows. Most about 50 feet away but right next to the side of the building. It's so hazy you can really only see the giant displays of the fireworks across the river as they go off in the sky, instead of watching the launch from the ground to the sky.

articles 1/28

Ronald Reagan's Unlikely Heir
Ohio’s Republican gubernatorial front-runner Ken Blackwell is “Jesse Jackson’s worst nightmare.”

What American Intelligence Has Been Doing To Protect Americans
by Gen. Michael Hayden

Exposure
Did the New York Times break the law with its wire-tapping story?
Blogging Saudi Arabia
Undermining the Wahhabis, one post at a time.


Iran or Bust
The defining test of Bush's war presidency.
The Lessons of Alito
It's important to remember one thing: quality matters.
Reading Saddam's Email
What to do with an enemy's hard drives.
Recycle This!
Separating tin cans and pizza boxes and exposing the facts about the High Church of Recycling.
The Mullah Wars
How to understand and exploit Iran's internal fissures.


Plenty of Checks, No Blank Ones
If President Bush Were Really Abusing Power, He Would Pay A Price


Marriage and Caste
America’s chief source of inequality? The Marriage Gap.

A Strong Executive
Does Watergate's Legacy Hinder The War On Terror?

Shut Up, They Explained
The Left's Regulatory War Against Free Speech

Reuters
Sex calms nerves before public speaking - study

Reuters
And the most important trait in a mate is...

Chinese Celebrating The New Year In Style


Friday, January 27, 2006

The Chinese Melting Pot

I've found office life so far to be pretty similar to the U.S. You have offices, cubes, desks, chairs, Dell computers, Nortel phones, etc. You still have meetings in conference rooms and all the regular things most would expect.

Chinese do not leave voicemail messages. If they can't reach you on your office phone, your mobile phone will go off or you'll get an instant message. Email is used in the office but IMing is much more prevalent. I'm not sure why since both are immediate delivery for the most part, especially in an office environment. I've been told that some people will call and let the phone ring at a person's home for 10 minutes or more.

The most difficult thing to date is meetings. They're exhausting. Not because of the content or challenges of the problems but because you have to concentrate so hard. The U.S. may be "the melting pot" but it has nothing on Shanghai. I've been in meetings with people from all over the world. Each has a different accent and speaks English at varying rates of competency and speeds. (One Singaporean I know here speaks English much more quickly than I do.) Add in when people start having side conversations in their native tongues and you begin to get the picture. You can go home completely exhausted from trying to listen and catch what is being said.

Most meetings are truly multi-cultural unlike the limited, PC variety that some American aspire to. Literally, people from numerous different countries and continents. Our office for example has a Canadian (Quebec), Singaporeans, Tiawanese, Americans and Chinese. That's five different nationalities in 30 people. Add in the staff of your clients and you could easily have six or seven countries represented.

For example, one meeting I was in this week took part in with a client included an American, Japanese, Chinese and a couple Germans. One involved people from Singapore, Italy, China, Canadian, American, etc. Another involved an Australian and Chinese.

Then as you're trying to get to know them, you end up trying to find common ground. You talk about your travels, former employers and industries, sports (futball/soccer and NBA basketball seem to be big here), etc. All are very similar small talk to the U.S. but the experiences of these individuals is SO global. You realize what a good understanding many of them have of the U.S. and the West and what little understanding Americans have of their countries. Yes, they find New Yorkers to be rude too. Many have lived in the U.S. I've met a German that have lived in Akron. A Korean that lives in Allen, TX where we used to live...on a connecting street no less.

There is also a comaraderie when you meet or see a Westerner. You suddenly feel closer to them than you do another American that you're just meeting in the states. They understand your desire to have a hamburger or pizza or a good salad. You can talk with them about the upcoming World Cup (trying follow soccer more), share stories of adjustment to the country and just feel familiar.

Rude Americans however, bother you more than they would in the U.S. I've met two to date and you just want to slap them and remind them they're a guest in this country. It's very discouraging because the Chinese I've met to date are so kind and welcoming, especially if you are warm and humble back to them. You learn to appreciate differences more here instead of having it dictated to you in through a corporate diversity training program.

You also come to realize that many of the office staff have a language competency that you don't, and may never, have. While their English usage (verbs tenses especially) might not suit being a motivational speaker in the U.S., their English is leap-years ahead of our Mandarin for the most part. They're not using cards with English and Mandarin on them to give to taxi drivers to get themselves around town and they wouldn't need to in the U.S. They can actually read English while most Westerners can't read their 20,000 Chinese characters.

Their work ethic is pretty impressive too. They get in at 9 a.m., take an hour for lunch (usually between 12-1) and then work until 7 p.m. or later. It's not uncommon for them to work weekends either.

For those in communications, it's very fascinating to me to see how much access they have to the rest of the world's news and to ponder what this will mean in the future. Obviously, they have very little in 2nd and 3rd tier cities, but there is a lot that makes it to the larger cities and that they consume -- U.S. movies, music, theater, news, sports (the NBA is big here because of Yao Ming), etc.

51 percent of the Chinese say they trust Internet news most. Supposedly, if you work in an office setting, your Internet connection is mostly likely connected to Hong Kong which gives you much greater access than if you have it at home (I've been told they have access to only 20 percent of it there unless you are technical enough to make yourself anonymous and invisible by changing proxies, routing through various servers, etc.).

TV news is the second most trusted source for news. I expect this is because many in the large cities have satellite connections from Hong Kong/Phillipines, etc. so they can see CNN, the BBC, Fox News, ESPN, HBO, Cinemax, Star Movies, Trinity Broadcasting, etc. with less of the "c" word.

Both allow them to hear about what is going on in China from a Western perspective. In an office like this, we receive Time, Fortune, Newsweek, the Asian Wall Street Journal, the Int'l Herald Tribune, PR Week, the South China Morning Post, etc. which also increases the amount of outside information they receive.

What this will mean long term, who can say. But it reminds you of Eastern bloc countries in the 80's but with a much more capitalistic bent in a city like Shanghai.

Chinese New Year - The Year of the Dog

The Year of the Dog is good news for pooches worldwide. The Chinese New Year (CNY) or Spring Festival is a huge deal here. The celebration begins Sunday, Jan. 29 with the beginning of the lunar new year and runs until the Lantern Festival or Yuanxiao Festival on the 15th of the first month of the CNY. This marks the end of the CNY celebrations.

Businesses shut down. Most will require workers to come in Saturday, Jan. 28 for a most of the day and work will reopen Sunday, Feb. 5th.

Everyone travels to see their family. They have numerous feasts (think Thanksgiving-sized) with friends/family throughout the week. Presents are also a big deal.

Spontaneous firecrackers (in many cases hundreds of them) go off in the streets at any time of the day or night. Fireworks of all kinds get launched from the streets at night and in the early morning. If you were in NYC, you'd think they were gun shots, not firecrackers. Traditionally fireworks are the sign of getting rid of the old and welcoming the new.

It is a Chinese tradition that “bosses” give each of their employees a Hong Bao, a red envelope which contains money on the first day the office opens in the lunar new year - Sunday, Feb. 5. It is to bring about a “good and prosperous year.” You say “Gong Xi Fa Cai” when you present it. This wishes them a “prosperous year in which they make a lot of money.”

The Origin

Chinese New Year is the first day of the lunar calendar, so it is also called the Lunar New Year. And it is also referred to as the Spring Festival since it is the beginning of the Spring term, which is the first term of the 24 terms on the lunar calendar.

It was recorded that Chinese started to celebrate Chinese New Year from about 2000 BC, though the celebrations were held on different times under different emperors. They started to celebrate Chinese New Year on the first day of the lunar calendar based on Emperor Wu Di's almanac of the Han Dynasty.

Legend says the celebrations of Chinese New Year may be related to a beast known as Nian. The beast Nian came out to eat people on new years until an old man found a way to conquer it. Then people started to observe and celebrate Chinese New Year. The word "Nian" now has the same meaning as Chinese New Year, which is used as commonly as Chinese New Year. And people often use the term "Guo Nian", which may originally mean "passed or survived the Nian". Now everyone loves Guo Nian.

Things Chinese Do

Here is a list of things or traditions Chinese may do around Chinese New Year.

1. Preparation
Usually the preparation starts a month before the new year. The preparation includes thoroughly cleaning and decorating the house, buying new clothes, preparing enough food for at least two weeks. The decorations are highly symbolic with a lot of lucky words, printed paintings and red colors everywhere. Kids are busy in shopping for different kinds of firecrackers. Everyone gets a haircut before the new year. So everything and everyone looks new and fresh on the new year.

2. New Year' Eve
The New Year's Eve is the time for families. The New Year Eve's dinner is the biggest dinner of the year, much like Thanksgiving dinner. The dinner is full of symbolic meaning, such as Chinese dumplings implying wealth since they have the shape of ancient Chinese gold or silver ingots. Everyone, even kids, drinks a little Jiu (usually hard liquor), which symbolizes longevity since Jiu has the same pronunciation as longevity in Chinese. Then the family chats while watching national TV shows or listening to radio together until the coming of the new year. In China, the national TV shows have been prepared for a few months by a group of famous entertainers.

3. Firecrackers
Firecrackers are set off as soon as the new year arrives. You can hear or see firecrackers everywhere and this usually lasts for a few hours. Some people will continue to play firecrackers occasionally through out the first half of the first month. Traditionally fireworks are the sign of getting rid of the old and welcoming the new.

4. Red Packets
Giving Hongbao or red packets during Chinese new year is another tradition. A Red packet is simply a red envelope with money in it, which symbolizes luck and wealth. Red packets are typically handed out to younger generation by their parents, grand parents, relatives, and even close neighbors and friends.

5. New Year Greetings
Chinese New Year is also the time for socializing. People usually wear new clothes and go out to visit and greet their relatives and friends, so the streets are filled with a lot of cheerful people. The greetings and visitings can go on for a few days.

6. Dragon and Lion Dancing
Dragon and Lion dancing is another tradition of Chinese New Year.

7. Lantern Festival
Lantern Festival or Yuanxiao Festival is on the 15th of the first month of Chinese New Year, which marks the end of the New Year celebrations. Chinese celebrate the first full moon of the year on this day. It is the time for family reunion again. Yuanxiao is also a kind of cake, which looks like a table tennis ball (a little smaller) made of sticky rice with sweet stuffing inside. Everyone eats a few on Lantern Festival, which symbolizes family will stick together.

Year

Chinese New Year Day

Animal Sign

2006

01/29/2006

Dog

2007

02/18/2007

Pig

2008

02/07/2008

Rat

2009

01/26/2009

Ox

2010

02/14/2010

Tiger

2011

02/03/2011

Rabbit

2012

01/23/2012

Dragon

Adopt a dog

ADOPT A DOG
If you know of anyone that is looking for a great dog, our dog is still available to be adopted. He's located in the DC area and could use a really good home.

Luke
[Luke photo /photos/Luke_01.jpg] [Luke photo /photos/Luke_02.jpg]

Location: Virginia

Last update: 1/9/2006

Luke is a 1 year old neutered male. He is a very friendly, active puppy - he loves everyone and he loves to play! He gets along well with other dogs but should be supervised, because he has a dominant personality.

Luke knows basic commands, walks wonderfully on lead, is crate trained, and is working on house training. Although Luke is a big boy, he is definitely still a baby. He will walk around with his stuffed toy or blanket in his mouth following you all around the house. He needs a family that will be patient with him and give him plenty of play time as he goes through adolescence. This very loving boy is eager for his own family and home.

To adopt Luke or for more information about him, please contact Jody Marcus, 703-730-0844 or email her at jodi@akitarescue.org.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Buying a mobile phone in China

The experience was rather interesting. When you go to buy a phone in the U.S., you go to the mall kiosk or the Verizon store in the strip mall or wherever. You pick out your phone and your plan (you may get it free depending on the length of your contract), you take your phone and away you go.

You can visit a kiosk in a mall here or go to China Mobile but that's not where most shop for phones, nor is the process the same. :)

I went to get Anne a mobile phone yesterday. We went to a mall where the phones ran from $US100 to US$1,000. In China, you don't usually buy your phone with a plan. You just buy the phone, so you don't get the discounts/free phones that you do in the US. After deciding that the phones were way too expensive, we went to where many buy there phones.

The building was basically like a mall with many stories, but there were stalls where many sold the same products -- printers, computers, iPods, cameras, etc. etc. Each "store" hawked their wares and you bargain on the price (except at the Apple store which isn't like the fancy ones in the U.S.).

We finally found the Nokia "store" - it's the most trusted brand in China. All the "store" clerks recommend them. Motorola isn't perceived to be good quality in Shanghai. Panasonic, Sony, Phillips and LG are also here but Nokia rules the phone market perception battle.

The phones (including LG, et al) were all in a glass case and you could pick them out. They didn't list features. Just the price. All the boxes are in Chinese so you can't tell what features the phone has, you have to look very closely to determine whether it's dual or tri-band GSM (for use in the states too), etc.

When you pick a phone, they don't go in the back or under the glass to pick out a box. They take the box off the big pile of boxes behind the counter or they rummage through the pile till they find the box with the type of phone you want. Because nothing is sealed, you tend to have a hard time telling if something is new/used, fake or real.

After they bring over the box and take out the phone, you take the sim card out of your current phone (the sim actually contains your address book and the phone # for your phone and is stored under the battery) and pop it in the phone to test its features and start making/receiving calls. If you don't have a sim card - more on these later - you use the clerks sim card. If you only speak English, you also have to have them change the menu so it's in English, otherwise you have no clue what you're getting.

If you like the phone, you begin to barter on price. Don't worry. The "store" within three feet has the same phone and they listen to see when you'll come over to them so they can steal the sale. If you don't like the phone or want to try another, you pop out the sim and start over.

After an hour of this, I finally found two phones (an upgrade for me since the one the company gave me was five years old and one for Anne).that included a radio which an American has no need for in China. You occasionally here US music on the radio, but not often. The gentleman want 1700 RMB each for two Nokia phones. Using an int'l credit card, costs you an additional five percent that the "store" charges you and then you add the three percent currency conversion fee that Visa and the banks charge. ugh.

When we weren't happy with his price, we walked five feet to another vendor who beat his price by 300 RMB/phone (almost US$37/phone). An extra Nokia battery was 50 RMB (US$6.25).

Oh yeah. I almost forgot.

During the bartering, out of the blue, a scream went up. It wasn't an angry scream but rather a feminine scream. Why? Because a mouse had come out of the wall in this flea market like mall and was walking near one of the display cases. I'm not sure what happened to the mouse but the women responded just like women do in the U.S.

But, while I now had a phone for Anne, I had no sim card and no service plan.

In China, almost all mobile phones are pre-paid plans because credit histories really don't exist here. If you actually want a phone plan (xx minutes for XX RMB/mo), you have to provide a good deal of documentation -- a business license from where you work, a photocopy of your passport and some other document. After all the paperwork, Anne now has a 360 minute/mo. plan for 60 RMB (US$7.50). Her Verizon plan for roughly the same amount of time cost $39.99/mo. in DE. Text messages here are .02 RMB/message or 50 messages for 1 RMB (US$0.125 cents). Anne shouldn't really need all the minutes since her calling options in China are limited. :) We were able to get a sim card from the same store for 50 RMB. This card goes with you from phone to phone and it's what keeps provides your number portabilty.

For those that care, Apple computer products are the same price here. Laptops seemed to be comparable in price if not slightly cheaper. Most of the products that exist in the U.S. are here. The phones technology isn't as advanced because 3G hasn't made it's way to China yet, but you can still get an mp3 player, camera, etc. etc. on your phone if you want it, you just only get a phone that works in China.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Two weeks in...

The first two weeks have gone pretty quickly. I've already been thrown in on new business pitches, done an exec media training in English and then watched and listened as the role play/murder board were done in Chinese; visited the American Consulate and American Chamber of Commerce and found a number of good restaurants that serve numerous different cuisines.

The grocery store is still a mystery to me. Ever had a craving for green tea or Shasha Chicken potato chips from Lays; wanted to buy gum in a bottle similar to vitamins in the US; or purchased a quart-sized yogurt you could drink? You have to be careful with the latter because it looks like the package the milk comes in. If you're really looking to spend money, four bars of Dove soap cost US$4 for four bars at the City Supermarket, the import grocery. A medium-sized bottle of Listerine is US$12 and a half-gallon of Breyer's ice cream is US$10. In comparion, an ice cream cone at McDonald's is 25 cents and a large shake is 87.5 cents. Both taste the same as in the US. A Big Mac Meal can be had for US$1.87. A trip to TGI Friday's however is expensive. US$3.50 for a soda when you can buy 20 oz. (600ml) on the street or at All-Days for around 25-37 cents.

Personal space is an interesting concept in China. The bosses' office is pretty sacred and folks only come in if you ask them to do so for the most part. However, if you get on an elevator when it's busy, you begin to think that you're on the subway in NYC at rush hour or taking part in a Guinness Book of World Records attempt. :) Speaking of going up...the up escalator is on the left side and the down is on the right here.

The funny signs continued today. There's one near my office for FAG automotive.

A discussion of China wouldn't be complete without a mention of smoking. Supposedly, it makes up about 9.8% of the GDP here. You can tell. There are ashtrays above the urinals, in the stalls and you'll find men smoking in the bathroom with the windows open. There are smoking and non-smoking sections in restaurants and all the places they existed in the 70's in the U.S.

The 70's and other decades are where you can find yourself in the blink of an eye. The metro is pretty futuristic (uses RFID cards) and very clean. So is the architecture. There are tv in elevators and picture frames in hallways. Yet, PR is still in its infancy, healthcare is an emerging market (supposedly the EKG I described in an earlier post was one of the first designs for an EKG machine), and trash on the streets is picked up by men on bicycles. Mobile phones are more pervasive than in the US but good luck finding a Blackberry. Brooms are still old-fashioned and not modern.

The office buildings are cleaned in the morning before work and the newspapers (South China Morning Post, IHT, Singapore Strait Times, Asian WSJ, etc.) arrive in the evening around 5 p.m.

It is not uncommon for meetings and business events to be held on Saturday or Sunday. Saturday we hosted a press conference for AstraZeneca with journalists from around the country and we have an office party Sunday (along with a client meeting).

The lights on the outside of the buildings go off around 10 p.m. each night.

All of differences aside, Shanghai is a very cool city. You can't go outside without seeing a crane building something. It is changing rapidly and will soon be, if it isn't already, the financial capital of all of Asia.

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Banking in China

Today was my second excursion to open a bank account in China. HSBC wanted US$2,000 to open an account, charged a high maintenance fee each year and they can't issue debit and credit cards to foreigners according to Chinese banking laws.

So, I tried the Bank of China.

If you find banking difficult to understand in the states, opening an account in China will leave you struggling if you don't have someone with you that speaks Mandarin. The forms aren't that difficult because they're bilingual but you have some questions about what a passbook is -- a savings book they update when you go to a teller or that they must have when you withdraw money at the teller. There are a few other boxes you have to check to do things that you just take for granted in the states (eg. a box to check to transfer funds between accounts).

Once they have your form and a copy of your passport, they start creating your debit card and passcode for your account. It's a six # password and you are asked to enter it about 10 times. You have no idea why you're entering it after they are done creating your debit card, but they ask for it over and over and over. Finally you hand your money to deposit to the teller. It costs 10.25RMB (US$1.30) each year to keep an account at the bank of China. After they charge you that, you can have as little as 1RMB (12.5 cents) in the account until the end of the year.

As you can tell, banking in China is actually very similar to the US. "E-banking" and telephone banking exist - in Chinese. You can get a debit card. ATMs are plentiful and you can choose your language - Chinese or English. You can use your ATM card from the states to withdraw funds. Credit cards exist and so do some rewards cards. You can have your paycheck deposited directly.

What's different is the fact that you can't get a joint checking and savings account and you can only get one debit card for the account. When you use a debit card, you can only withdraw money in multiples of 100RMB (US$12.50) and you can ONLY use it in China. You also can't convert large sums of money from RMB to US$. That's very strictly controlled. You can't do an ACH transfer in China like you can between bank accounts online in the US between a bank like Chase and ING Direct.

Getting a credit card however, is quite a hassle. You are required to bring in your leasing agreement or mortgage; your passport; three months worth of paystubs - so if you're new to the country, you have to wait; and one other document which I believe is your companies' license to work in China (not sure on the last one). So much for using something like a social security number and credit bureau score to make it simple. Bank of China didn't issue a rewards cards either. They had just two card choices.

Who Are Those Guys?
Understanding the ties between Ansar al Islam, the GSPC, the Sudanese Islamic Army, and al Qaeda.
by Dan Darling
What the documents captured from the former Iraqi regime reveal--and why they should all be made public.
by Stephen F. Hayes

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

China after one week & articles 1/11

Monday one of the practice groups took me to lunch at very nice Chinese restaurant. This wasn't like the "fast food" Chinese I did the other day but the foods were no less surprising. We had our room and all of us sat around a round table with a very large glass lazy susan in the middle. Once the food started to be delivered, it didn't stop. Everything is served family style and everyone used the chopsticks they eat with to grab their food.

I was caught off guard when no one really ate or drank when things started to arrive. I was finally told that the most senior person is to make a toast for the table before everyone starts, so I did. It wasn't a great off the cuff toast but it seemed to work since everyone started clinking glasses enthusiastically.

There were all kinds of foods -- sticky rice, a pork and beef of some kind of curry or sauce, peanuts in a spicy oil, tofu, broccoli in a soup of some kind, chrysanthamum (sp) tea, watermelon juice, noodles (almost clear, not like Italian noodles), and then...eel with the skin still on; frog soup - the frog is diced into large chunks; chicken on the bone in 4+ inch sections; donkey tongue (it's supposed to be lucky like a dragon); cow, pig and ox tongue; fried duck tongue in the beak which everyone seemed to enjoy very much; and then a desert of sliced watermelon. Everyone ate a ton - not me but I tried to taste as much as I could - yet everyone is still very thin. I believe it's because it's all meats, vegatables and so few processed foods. When we got back to the office, I was asked how I liked "sitting at lunch" and quizzed on my favorite foods - Western and Chinese. I was told that there is no such thing in China as chop suey.

While walking back from lunch, I got a good lesson in crossing the street in Shanghai when I was almost hit by a car. I missed taking a fender in my right knee by about six inches. I was talking to someone on my left and not looking at the traffic turning left. Cars, buses and bikes do NOT stop for people. People are regularly killed here crossing the street, especially by buses from what my staff says.

Today, the other office practice took me to an Indian restaurant. Yum. None of the Chinese really knew what to order so the Singaporeans and I ordered for the table. It was funny to see them try something new. Many said they liked it but they seemed to have a difficult time with the spices and rich flavors.

Starbucks here is great and tastes the same for the most part. I miss my regular sugar-free Venti vanilla latte, with no foam or fat. I can't get a venti here. The sizes are short (6 oz), tall and grande (the latter two like the US). I miss the sugar-free but am still very grateful for the creature comfort.

My driver decided today to use our drive time to teach me Mandarin. It's actually a lot of fun and very funny. He thinks of all the English words he can say and then teaches me how to say them. Today was a good lesson. I learned how to say: left, right, go home, tomorrow, 7:45 (the time my driver picks me up in the a.m.) , sorry, supermarket, please, cold, hot and car. Coffee was easy -- Starbucks. Hamburger was similar -- McDonald's. :)

The agency business here is so fascinating. There aren't many retainer clients but numerous new business opportunities come in each week. I had three in the first two days. Many are short-term projects or US companies that want press because they're opening an office in the city. It's pretty funny actually. "Hi, we're opening an office in a city of 20+ million people and we'd like to have the media come and cover our opening. Could you accomplish that for us?" You try very hard to be diplomatic and ask them what is unique and newsworthy about their company, office, etc. and try to lead them down the path on their own that it's not as easy as they may think. Some get it and some don't. It's just amazing that many of them would never ask for this in the U.S. but they think they can get it in China. Go figure.

Friday, I get to go meet the folks at the US Consulate here in Shanghai. I'm also now on a financial committee at the American Chamber of Commerce here. We've not had a meeting yet but it should be fun. The Secretary of Transportation was here yesterday.

Observation -- Key holes in doors are not vertical here. They're horizontal.

L. Paul Bremer III on his Year in Iraq

WSJ Editorial
The Real Surviellance Scandal
Rename the FBI Building. And Leave the Presidency Alone.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Church in China

I attended the Hengshan Community Church today.

It has various services but it's different from US churches because the service times determine who can attend. Only foreigners with passports can go to church with other foreigners. At Hengshan, the passport service is at 4 p.m. It's nice that way because you have the whole morning to relax and don't have to rush out the door to church. It helps get your prepared to worship.

The church is across the river on the Puxi side in the French Concession. A taxi ride to get there was about 20-30 minutes and cost 26 RMB=US$3.25. Can't do that in NYC or anywhere else in the US for that matter.

It's right across the street from a service apartment I looked at in Nov. when I was here. There's also a TGI Friday's across the street that will be good for after church. The church looks like an old traditional church.

I got there 20 minutes early and I'm glad I did. The place fills to overflowing and many stand throughout or sit on the stairs in the entry ways wherever they can find space. Basically every race, color and creed is represented at the service. There were a lot more Asians than Westerners. Dress is pretty casual (jeans, khakis, sweaters) and everyone wears their coats thru the service because I'm not sure the church had much, if any, heat. I saw the blowers on the wall but they keep the doors to the outside open between services for 20-30 minutes so it doesn't get very warm throughout the service. There were lots of families (classes for kids k-6) and everyone is very welcoming.

The pastor/worship leader (not sure which since we had a special guest pastor) is Gerald Ang and he's from Singapore. He's been at the church for eight years.It's contemporary worship in style with drums, a piano and guitar and you sing worship songs from a projector, similar to Campus Crusade stuff, etc. Some of the songs you sing in English and Mandarin. That's a difficult one your first time even if it's spelled phonetically.

Today was communion Sunday and the communion occured after the first two songs. You get a wafer (1 cm sq.) in a small Glad bag and a cup of grape juice/Kool-Aid. It's hard to open the little bag without spilling and you can't put the cup down because the bottom is rounded, not flat.

After communion, visitors are asked to stand. They are then given a mic and asked to give their name, where they are from and how long they plan to stay in Shanghai. Then the clap for each person and the people around you welcome you. There were visitors today from Israel, Australia, Barcelona, Toronto, Arizona, Los Angeles, London, and a few other places. It's VERY int'l with Asians, Europeans, Americans, Middle Easterners, Africans, etc.

Today, we had a special guest from Britian -- none other than John Stott. He was not who I was expecting but a very nice welcome to Shanghai. He didn't disappoint. I really enjoyed his scholarly sermon. He's very frail in terms of getting around but has a very powerful voice.

The church service was longer than a US service. It went for 1.5 hours and many in Shanghai go for two. That could be tough on the wood benches with no padding. The coats help that some.

It's not a reformed church but it is definitely a Bible believing church and very sincere in terms of the leadership. Each pew had a Chinese Bible (wonder what translation they use -- KJV, NIV, etc.?). The pastor uses NIV in the foreign service.

Observations:

Water has been served hot to me a few times in restaurants. Not warm or like tap, but actually hot like tea but with nothing in it.

Fox News Channel doesn't show commercials. Instead, the 2:02 is spent showing the various graphics of the continents and giving a silent weather update on the current and future temps around the globe.

Lefebvre builds bridges in China
Former Major League manager to lead WBC entry

Pure ice for festival in China's Harbin, organisers say
Photos

articles 1/8

Saddam's Terror Training Camps
What the documents captured from the former Iraqi regime reveal--and why they should all be made public.
by Stephen F. Hayes

Tapping Our Common Sense
by Michael Rosen
This issue transcends the politics of the moment; it concerns the basic powers of the executive branch. Michael Rosen on the NSA wiretaps.

The Permanent Campaign Is, Well, Permanent
by Pejman Yousefzadeh
A funny thing happened to the Bush Administration in 2005. It forgot the basics politics today.

The Materialism Fallacy
by Arnold Kling
Economists are gradually shifting the way we think about the determinants of economic well-being. The implications are enormous. Arnold Kling looks at beliefs and consequences.

Just the Facts
It is past time that the president insist that his subordinates get the facts out about Iraq's terror connection.
by William Kristol

Ariel Sharon's Legacy
From soldier to statesman, by way of most vilified leader in the world.
by Peter Berkowitz

What Sharon Did
The Bulldozer's long, brutal career ended better than anyone expected.
by Christopher Hitchens

The Lion
by David Warren

Hot Tubs And Cold Moralizing
by George Will
Government could spare itself the stress of moralizing about so many things if it decided that the choices people make with their money is their, not its, business.

Alito's opponents unwittingly make case for him
by David Limbaugh
As Senate confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito approach, we are getting a closer glimpse at the mindset of the various special-interest groups joining to oppose the nomination.

The Worst of Times
According to the New York Times, the NSA is currently to be feared because the NSA currently takes its orders from George W. Bush.
by David Tell, for the Editors

The Friends of Jack Abramoff
They're not all Republicans.
by Matthew Continetti

Conservatism Shaped Alito
Despite coming of age in the 1960s and 1970s, the Supreme Court nominee retained a 1950s-era respect for order and authority.

Wal-Mart apologizes for offensive movie recommendations
The retailer's website suggested that shoppers who wanted to buy a "Planet of the Apes" DVD would be interested in biopics of famous black Americans like Martin Luther King Jr. Wal-Mart blames a computer glitch for the "offensive" recommendations says it's overhauling its online operations until a fix can be made.

So, You Want To Rip Off Starbucks ...

China report, Jan. 8

It's fun, frustrating and rather humorous being in a new culture.

For example, taking a taxi isn't as easy as NYC. I had them print off a note card with the address of the church and our apartment so I could take a cab to and from. Church here is on Sunday afternoon's and the service is only open to foreign passports holders or Chinese that have lived abroad.

The laundry machine and dryer are VERY small. You can only fit a few things in. I can see how you could do laundry non-stop because it's so small. Four days of clothes for one person basically took four loads.

Prices here play tricks on your mind. I went to the grocery and spent 127RMB=$15.88 cents on a loaf of bread, Pringles, Chinese Cheerios, two rolls of paper towels, two sponges, two loaves of french bread, four things of strawberry/banana yogurt, detergent (laundry powder), fabric softner (all in Chinese but the Chinese lady at the store handed it to me and seemed to recommend it), four bottles of Coke Light (600ml=20 oz.) for a little over 25 cents (2.4 RMB), and a Chinese thing of butter than was similar to Can't Believe It's Not Butter. Bread here is a different consistency and there are numerous types - sweet, soda, brown (=wheat). A whole loaf of wheat costs 10 RMB but it is usually sold by the half loaf.

I've now lost almost 10 lbs. Part of it is just not eating much and part of it is not having food you're used to in the US.

Saturday, I went out exploring the Shimao grounds and the neighborhood. I didn't walk to a grocery store because it was so cold out and my coat really doesn't cut it here. It's unseasonably cold. It's in the 20s at night and the lower 30s during the day.

The Shimao does have a restaurant with American food down at the American club with the pool, etc. It's expensive though compared to Chinese prices.

I went across the street to a little 7-11-like store called "All Day." It's got wine, sodas, and stuff like 7-11 but it's about the size of our family room in DE. There is fresh food too that they're cooking but it's all Chinese and I can't read the sign to tell what it is. The pictures aren't much help either.

Next door to it, there is a really cool bakery/restaurant called Ichido. It a pretty impressive bakery with all kinds of intricate cakes with fruits on the top of the frosting. I saw a couple westereners there. You can also eat in the back. I had a plate-sized pizza with Italian sausage, iced coffee and caesar salad for 78RMB=$9.75.

While everyone said peanut butter is expensive, it's not nearly as expensive as jelly. I haven't seen honey, but I'm sure it's here. Also, many of the restaurants I've been to don't serve soda and I've not seen milk on menus.

I don't have a bank account yet. You need US$2,000 to open a bank account at HSBC which would give me access to our money in RMB and USD. But...because I'm a foreigner, I couldn't get a debit or credit card with them. I have to have a Chinese account to do that. It's rather odd. I'm not sure how much to trust a Chinese bank. Need to speak with Martin about that.

I woke up early this morning for some reason, but it was nice because the Redskins/Buccaneers game was on live. It's weird to think I'm watching the game live in China. Fox News is nice too. Fox & Friends in on at night because of the time difference.

Observations:

Business cards are handed with both hands as a gesture of respect.

From our welcome booklet. "A gift will be declined three times before being accepted...Gifts associated with death that you should NOT give: clocks (must explain why there are no clocks in our apartment except on the phones and microwave), straw sandals, stork/crane, handkerchiefs, anything white, blue or black."

Always arrive for dinner early or on time.

Do NOT discuss business at meals.

Taste all the dishes you are offered.

Do not drop the chopsticks. It is considered bad luck.

Do not eat all of your meal. If you eat all of it, the Chinses will assume you did not receive enough food and are still hungry.

Women do not usually drink at meals.

Tipping is considered insulting.

Religion is a sensitive topic and best not discussed.

Chinese men spit in public. Watch where you place things on the floor is the best advice.

Chinese men smoke and smoke alot. It is far less common with women.

Pushing, shoving and jumping the queue are perfectly acceptable and often the norm.

Friday, January 06, 2006

articles 1/6

Remarks by VP Cheney on Iraq & the War on Terror

That's No Jack Rabbit...It's An Artist In Chains
Man hops 12 hours across desert after binding legs for realistic portrait

WSJ Editorial
Banish the Abramoff Republicans

Harem, scare 'em. Worrying about Polygamy

by Naomi Schaefer Riley

Munich Syndrome
Are George Jonas's "Vengeance" and Steven Spielberg's "Munich" really soft of terrorism?
Robertson Links Sharon Stroke, God's Wrath

Romans Revolution
by Michael Horton
Why is Romans such an important book in the canon of Scripture? This book reveals more clearly than others the message of salvation. In his epistle to the Romans, the apostle Paul gives us a systematic presentation of the gospel. According to the author, the Book of Romans continues to serve as a reliable “road map” for the church by “drawing together the most important strands of biblical doctrine.”

Thursday, January 05, 2006

The Chinese clinic for foreign entry exams

Everyone 18+ that enters the country to work/live must go to the gov't run health clinic in Shanghai. It's a long drive from the center of the city and it's not like a U.S. clinic. There's even a picture room for them to take photos of you because they require three passport sized photos. The photo room is opposite the register w/ secretary.

When you walk in you enter a stark outer office, and step to the counter to register with the secretary. She ask for you passport, a photocopy of your passport, your company's license and 742RMB (8RMB=US$1). You are assigned a number and then go to the waiting room w/ everyone else. They were many Asians, a Frenchman, a US born Chinese man and a Canadian woman. There was a round fish tank in the center of the room.

In this room, you are to fill out your paperwork which includes your passport # (they ask for it everywhere it seems), address in China, place of business and a number of questions about surgeries you've had, if you have/have had certain diseases and health issues, etc.

When they call your number, you go next door where they ask for your passport and take a digital picture of you. In this area, you can request various vaccinations in the event you didn't get them before you came over. You are then told to go take off your "upper clothes" and upper underwear and put on a robe in a room with small closets (similar to a dress room at a dept. store but not as nice - think public health in the US.). When you step out of the closet, you put your belongings in a locker and take the key with you.

You are immediately weighed and mesured by a nurse dressed in pink but with a hat that looks like it came from a hospital in the 60/70s in the states. After that is complete, they send you out into a hallway with about eight different rooms. Each room is for a different part of the exam. The first room you go to is where they take a blood sample. Upon finishing, the nurse makes you wait three minutes w/ a cotton ball on your arm. When the time is up, you are told to go to the next stark room.

This continues until you have an upper body x-ray, an ultra-sound (I wasn't pregnant), an eye exam, an EKG, blood pressure and ENT exam (cover each eye with your hand). Each is done in a separate room and then you are told to go to the next numbered room. The EKG is done with two ankles clasps, two wrist clasps and three metal suction cups on your chest. It's almost primitive and the thought cross your mind that they might electrocute you -- each area got warm but I didn't feel a shock.

When you finish the exam, you fill out your paperwork to have your results mailed to you. They say it will take a week and then you can apply for your residence permit.

Observations:

  • Crosswalks in China beep each second that you are allowed to cross.
  • Cars and bikes in China rule the road. Cross at your own risk if you go against the light.
  • Chinese stores and restaurants that try to use English sometimes have difficulty -- "restraunt" "vergigo" instead of vertigo, etc.
  • PR and marketers should rejoice. There is a "Bank of Communications" in Shanghai. I'm not sure if keeping your $$ there will help you deal with the media and your corporate image, but it couldn't hurt.
  • Pizza Hut in China has a much wider menu than it does in the US.
  • Cereal can be up to US$9 per box for name brand US cereals
  • If you open a bank account at HSBC or Citi (ie. a foreign bank in China), you can't have a debit or credit card. All transactions must be done in the branch. However, you can keep two different currencies in your account. To get a debit and credit card, you have to open an account at a Chinese bank.
  • My office came complete with a copy of "Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-Tuno"
  • Printer paper is A4 or 210x297mm.
  • Starbucks rules China just like it does in the US, but you can't get sugar-free flavors.
  • Americans smuggle dvds out of the country in fake Case Logic cd/dvd cases that the stores give you for free if you buy enough.
  • Numbers: "Caution must be used with the use of numbers, especially if for whatever reason you have to allocate a number to a Chinese person. Four is the number to be most cautious about, as it is associated with death. Try to avoid at all time giving someone four of anything or referring to anyone as fourth, etc. On the other hand, eight is seen as bringing wealth and luck. If you receive eight of anything, then it is seen as a gesture of good will." -- from my welcome package from the realty company

It's the Demography, Stupid

THE CENTURY AHEAD


It's the Demography, Stupid
The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

BY MARK STEYN
Wednesday, January 4, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries. There'll probably still be a geographical area on the map marked as Italy or the Netherlands--probably--just as in Istanbul there's still a building called St. Sophia's Cathedral. But it's not a cathedral; it's merely a designation for a piece of real estate. Likewise, Italy and the Netherlands will merely be designations for real estate. The challenge for those who reckon Western civilization is on balance better than the alternatives is to figure out a way to save at least some parts of the West.

One obstacle to doing that is that, in the typical election campaign in your advanced industrial democracy, the political platforms of at least one party in the United States and pretty much all parties in the rest of the West are largely about what one would call the secondary impulses of society--government health care, government day care (which Canada's thinking of introducing), government paternity leave (which Britain's just introduced). We've prioritized the secondary impulse over the primary ones: national defense, family, faith and, most basic of all, reproductive activity--"Go forth and multiply," because if you don't you won't be able to afford all those secondary-impulse issues, like cradle-to-grave welfare.

Americans sometimes don't understand how far gone most of the rest of the developed world is down this path: In the Canadian and most Continental cabinets, the defense ministry is somewhere an ambitious politician passes through on his way up to important jobs like the health department. I don't think Don Rumsfeld would regard it as a promotion if he were moved to Health and Human Services.

The design flaw of the secular social-democratic state is that it requires a religious-society birthrate to sustain it. Post-Christian hyperrationalism is, in the objective sense, a lot less rational than Catholicism or Mormonism. Indeed, in its reliance on immigration to ensure its future, the European Union has adopted a 21st-century variation on the strategy of the Shakers, who were forbidden from reproducing and thus could increase their numbers only by conversion. The problem is that secondary-impulse societies mistake their weaknesses for strengths--or, at any rate, virtues--and that's why they're proving so feeble at dealing with a primal force like Islam.

Speaking of which, if we are at war--and half the American people and significantly higher percentages in Britain, Canada and Europe don't accept that proposition--then what exactly is the war about?

We know it's not really a "war on terror." Nor is it, at heart, a war against Islam, or even "radical Islam." The Muslim faith, whatever its merits for the believers, is a problematic business for the rest of us. There are many trouble spots around the world, but as a general rule, it's easy to make an educated guess at one of the participants: Muslims vs. Jews in "Palestine," Muslims vs. Hindus in Kashmir, Muslims vs. Christians in Africa, Muslims vs. Buddhists in Thailand, Muslims vs. Russians in the Caucasus, Muslims vs. backpacking tourists in Bali. Like the environmentalists, these guys think globally but act locally.

Yet while Islamism is the enemy, it's not what this thing's about. Radical Islam is an opportunistic infection, like AIDS: It's not the HIV that kills you, it's the pneumonia you get when your body's too weak to fight it off. When the jihadists engage with the U.S. military, they lose--as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq. If this were like World War I with those fellows in one trench and us in ours facing them over some boggy piece of terrain, it would be over very quickly. Which the smarter Islamists have figured out. They know they can never win on the battlefield, but they figure there's an excellent chance they can drag things out until Western civilization collapses in on itself and Islam inherits by default.

That's what the war's about: our lack of civilizational confidence. As a famous Arnold Toynbee quote puts it: "Civilizations die from suicide, not murder"--as can be seen throughout much of "the Western world" right now. The progressive agenda--lavish social welfare, abortion, secularism, multiculturalism--is collectively the real suicide bomb. Take multiculturalism. The great thing about multiculturalism is that it doesn't involve knowing anything about other cultures--the capital of Bhutan, the principal exports of Malawi, who cares? All it requires is feeling good about other cultures. It's fundamentally a fraud, and I would argue was subliminally accepted on that basis. Most adherents to the idea that all cultures are equal don't want to live in anything but an advanced Western society. Multiculturalism means your kid has to learn some wretched native dirge for the school holiday concert instead of getting to sing "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" or that your holistic masseuse uses techniques developed from Native American spirituality, but not that you or anyone you care about should have to live in an African or Native American society. It's a quintessential piece of progressive humbug.

Then September 11 happened. And bizarrely the reaction of just about every prominent Western leader was to visit a mosque: President Bush did, the prince of Wales did, the prime minister of the United Kingdom did, the prime minister of Canada did . . . The premier of Ontario didn't, and so 20 Muslim community leaders had a big summit to denounce him for failing to visit a mosque. I don't know why he didn't. Maybe there was a big backlog, it was mosque drive time, prime ministers in gridlock up and down the freeway trying to get to the Sword of the Infidel-Slayer Mosque on Elm Street. But for whatever reason he couldn't fit it into his hectic schedule. Ontario's citizenship minister did show up at a mosque, but the imams took that as a great insult, like the Queen sending Fergie to open the Commonwealth Games. So the premier of Ontario had to hold a big meeting with the aggrieved imams to apologize for not going to a mosque and, as the Toronto Star's reported it, "to provide them with reassurance that the provincial government does not see them as the enemy."

Anyway, the get-me-to-the-mosque-on-time fever died down, but it set the tone for our general approach to these atrocities. The old definition of a nanosecond was the gap between the traffic light changing in New York and the first honk from a car behind. The new definition is the gap between a terrorist bombing and the press release from an Islamic lobby group warning of a backlash against Muslims. In most circumstances, it would be considered appallingly bad taste to deflect attention from an actual "hate crime" by scaremongering about a purely hypothetical one. Needless to say, there is no campaign of Islamophobic hate crimes. If anything, the West is awash in an epidemic of self-hate crimes. A commenter on Tim Blair's Web site in Australia summed it up in a note-perfect parody of a Guardian headline: "Muslim Community Leaders Warn of Backlash from Tomorrow Morning's Terrorist Attack." Those community leaders have the measure of us.

Radical Islam is what multiculturalism has been waiting for all along. In "The Survival of Culture," I quoted the eminent British barrister Helena Kennedy, Queen's Counsel. Shortly after September 11, Baroness Kennedy argued on a BBC show that it was too easy to disparage "Islamic fundamentalists." "We as Western liberals too often are fundamentalist ourselves," she complained. "We don't look at our own fundamentalisms."

Well, said the interviewer, what exactly would those Western liberal fundamentalisms be? "One of the things that we are too ready to insist upon is that we are the tolerant people and that the intolerance is something that belongs to other countries like Islam. And I'm not sure that's true."

Hmm. Lady Kennedy was arguing that our tolerance of our own tolerance is making us intolerant of other people's intolerance, which is intolerable. And, unlikely as it sounds, this has now become the highest, most rarefied form of multiculturalism. So you're nice to gays and the Inuit? Big deal. Anyone can be tolerant of fellows like that, but tolerance of intolerance gives an even more intense frisson of pleasure to the multiculti masochists. In other words, just as the AIDS pandemic greatly facilitated societal surrender to the gay agenda, so 9/11 is greatly facilitating our surrender to the most extreme aspects of the multicultural agenda.

For example, one day in 2004, a couple of Canadians returned home, to Lester B. Pearson International Airport in Toronto. They were the son and widow of a fellow called Ahmed Said Khadr, who back on the Pakistani-Afghan frontier was known as "al-Kanadi." Why? Because he was the highest-ranking Canadian in al Qaeda--plenty of other Canucks in al Qaeda, but he was the Numero Uno. In fact, one could argue that the Khadr family is Canada's principal contribution to the war on terror. Granted they're on the wrong side (if you'll forgive my being judgmental) but no one can argue that they aren't in the thick of things. One of Mr. Khadr's sons was captured in Afghanistan after killing a U.S. Special Forces medic. Another was captured and held at Guantanamo. A third blew himself up while killing a Canadian soldier in Kabul. Pa Khadr himself died in an al Qaeda shootout with Pakistani forces in early 2004. And they say we Canadians aren't doing our bit in this war!

In the course of the fatal shootout of al-Kanadi, his youngest son was paralyzed. And, not unreasonably, Junior didn't fancy a prison hospital in Peshawar. So Mrs. Khadr and her boy returned to Toronto so he could enjoy the benefits of Ontario government health care. "I'm Canadian, and I'm not begging for my rights," declared the widow Khadr. "I'm demanding my rights."

As they always say, treason's hard to prove in court, but given the circumstances of Mr. Khadr's death it seems clear that not only was he providing "aid and comfort to the Queen's enemies" but that he was, in fact, the Queen's enemy. The Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, the Royal 22nd Regiment and other Canucks have been participating in Afghanistan, on one side of the conflict, and the Khadr family had been over there participating on the other side. Nonetheless, the prime minister of Canada thought Boy Khadr's claims on the public health system was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate his own deep personal commitment to "diversity." Asked about the Khadrs' return to Toronto, he said, "I believe that once you are a Canadian citizen, you have the right to your own views and to disagree."

That's the wonderful thing about multiculturalism: You can choose which side of the war you want to fight on. When the draft card arrives, just tick "home team" or "enemy," according to taste. The Canadian prime minister is a typical late-stage Western politician: He could have said, well, these are contemptible people and I know many of us are disgusted at the idea of our tax dollars being used to provide health care for a man whose Canadian citizenship is no more than a flag of convenience, but unfortunately that's the law and, while we can try to tighten it, it looks like this lowlife's got away with it. Instead, his reflex instinct was to proclaim this as a wholehearted demonstration of the virtues of the multicultural state. Like many enlightened Western leaders, the Canadian prime minister will be congratulating himself on his boundless tolerance even as the forces of intolerance consume him.

That, by the way, is the one point of similarity between the jihad and conventional terrorist movements like the IRA or ETA. Terror groups persist because of a lack of confidence on the part of their targets: The IRA, for example, calculated correctly that the British had the capability to smash them totally but not the will. So they knew that while they could never win militarily, they also could never be defeated. The Islamists have figured similarly. The only difference is that most terrorist wars are highly localized. We now have the first truly global terrorist insurgency because the Islamists view the whole world the way the IRA view the bogs of Fermanagh: They want it, and they've calculated that our entire civilization lacks the will to see them off.

We spend a lot of time at The New Criterion attacking the elites, and we're right to do so. The commanding heights of the culture have behaved disgracefully for the last several decades. But if it were just a problem with the elites, it wouldn't be that serious: The mob could rise up and hang 'em from lampposts--a scenario that's not unlikely in certain Continental countries. But the problem now goes way beyond the ruling establishment. The annexation by government of most of the key responsibilities of life--child-raising, taking care of your elderly parents--has profoundly changed the relationship between the citizen and the state. At some point--I would say socialized health care is a good marker--you cross a line, and it's very hard then to persuade a citizenry enjoying that much government largesse to cross back. In National Review recently, I took issue with that line Gerald Ford always uses to ingratiate himself with conservative audiences: "A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have." Actually, you run into trouble long before that point: A government big enough to give you everything you want still isn't big enough to get you to give anything back. That's what the French and German political classes are discovering.

Go back to that list of local conflicts I mentioned. The jihad has held out a long time against very tough enemies. If you're not shy about taking on the Israelis, the Russians, the Indians and the Nigerians, why wouldn't you fancy your chances against the Belgians and Danes and New Zealanders?

So the jihadists are for the most part doing no more than giving us a prod in the rear as we sleepwalk to the cliff. When I say "sleepwalk," it's not because we're a blasé culture. On the contrary, one of the clearest signs of our decline is the way we expend so much energy worrying about the wrong things. If you've read Jared Diamond's bestselling book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," you'll know it goes into a lot of detail about Easter Island going belly up because they chopped down all their trees. Apparently that's why they're not a G-8 member or on the U.N. Security Council. Same with the Greenlanders and the Mayans and Diamond's other curious choices of "societies." Indeed, as the author sees it, pretty much every society collapses because it chops down its trees.

Poor old Diamond can't see the forest because of his obsession with the trees. (Russia's collapsing even as it's undergoing reforestation.) One way "societies choose to fail or succeed" is by choosing what to worry about. The Western world has delivered more wealth and more comfort to more of its citizens than any other civilization in history, and in return we've developed a great cult of worrying. You know the classics of the genre: In 1968, in his bestselling book "The Population Bomb," the eminent scientist Paul Ehrlich declared: "In the 1970s the world will undergo famines--hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." In 1972, in their landmark study "The Limits to Growth," the Club of Rome announced that the world would run out of gold by 1981, of mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and gas by 1993.

None of these things happened. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. We're pretty much awash in resources, but we're running out of people--the one truly indispensable resource, without which none of the others matter. Russia's the most obvious example: it's the largest country on earth, it's full of natural resources, and yet it's dying--its population is falling calamitously.

The default mode of our elites is that anything that happens--from terrorism to tsunamis--can be understood only as deriving from the perniciousness of Western civilization. As Jean-Francois Revel wrote, "Clearly, a civilization that feels guilty for everything it is and does will lack the energy and conviction to defend itself."

And even though none of the prognostications of the eco-doom blockbusters of the 1970s came to pass, all that means is that 30 years on, the end of the world has to be rescheduled. The amended estimated time of arrival is now 2032. That's to say, in 2002, the United Nations Global Environmental Outlook predicted "the destruction of 70 percent of the natural world in thirty years, mass extinction of species. . . . More than half the world will be afflicted by water shortages, with 95 percent of people in the Middle East with severe problems . . . 25 percent of all species of mammals and 10 percent of birds will be extinct . . ."

Etc., etc., for 450 pages. Or to cut to the chase, as the Guardian headlined it, "Unless We Change Our Ways, The World Faces Disaster."

Well, here's my prediction for 2032: unless we change our ways the world faces a future . . . where the environment will look pretty darn good. If you're a tree or a rock, you'll be living in clover. It's the Italians and the Swedes who'll be facing extinction and the loss of their natural habitat.

There will be no environmental doomsday. Oil, carbon dioxide emissions, deforestation: none of these things is worth worrying about. What's worrying is that we spend so much time worrying about things that aren't worth worrying about that we don't worry about the things we should be worrying about. For 30 years, we've had endless wake-up calls for things that aren't worth waking up for. But for the very real, remorseless shifts in our society--the ones truly jeopardizing our future--we're sound asleep. The world is changing dramatically right now, and hysterical experts twitter about a hypothetical decrease in the Antarctic krill that might conceivably possibly happen so far down the road there are unlikely to be any Italian or Japanese enviro-worriers left alive to be devastated by it.

In a globalized economy, the environmentalists want us to worry about First World capitalism imposing its ways on bucolic, pastoral, primitive Third World backwaters. Yet, insofar as "globalization" is a threat, the real danger is precisely the opposite--that the peculiarities of the backwaters can leap instantly to the First World. Pigs are valued assets and sleep in the living room in rural China--and next thing you know an unknown respiratory disease is killing people in Toronto, just because someone got on a plane. That's the way to look at Islamism: We fret about McDonald's and Disney, but the big globalization success story is the way the Saudis have taken what was 80 years ago a severe but obscure and unimportant strain of Islam practiced by Bedouins of no fixed abode and successfully exported it to the heart of Copenhagen, Rotterdam, Manchester, Buffalo . . .

What's the better bet? A globalization that exports cheeseburgers and pop songs or a globalization that exports the fiercest aspects of its culture? When it comes to forecasting the future, the birthrate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2006, it's hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2026 (or 2033, or 2037, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management and Queer Studies degrees). And the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they're running out a lot faster than the oil is. "Replacement" fertility rate--i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller--is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?

Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you'll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada's fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That's to say, Spain's population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy's population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria's by 36%, Estonia's by 52%. In America, demographic trends suggest that the blue states ought to apply for honorary membership of the EU: In the 2004 election, John Kerry won the 16 with the lowest birthrates; George W. Bush took 25 of the 26 states with the highest. By 2050, there will be 100 million fewer Europeans, 100 million more Americans--and mostly red-state Americans.

As fertility shrivels, societies get older--and Japan and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. And we know what comes after old age. These countries are going out of business--unless they can find the will to change their ways. Is that likely? I don't think so. If you look at European election results--most recently in Germany--it's hard not to conclude that, while voters are unhappy with their political establishments, they're unhappy mainly because they resent being asked to reconsider their government benefits and, no matter how unaffordable they may be a generation down the road, they have no intention of seriously reconsidering them. The Scottish executive recently backed down from a proposal to raise the retirement age of Scottish public workers. It's presently 60, which is nice but unaffordable. But the reaction of the average Scots worker is that that's somebody else's problem. The average German worker now puts in 22% fewer hours per year than his American counterpart, and no politician who wishes to remain electorally viable will propose closing the gap in any meaningful way.

This isn't a deep-rooted cultural difference between the Old World and the New. It dates back all the way to, oh, the 1970s. If one wanted to allocate blame, one could argue that it's a product of the U.S. military presence, the American security guarantee that liberated European budgets: instead of having to spend money on guns, they could concentrate on butter, and buttering up the voters. If Washington's problem with Europe is that these are not serious allies, well, whose fault is that? Who, in the years after the Second World War, created NATO as a postmodern military alliance? The "free world," as the Americans called it, was a free ride for everyone else. And having been absolved from the primal responsibilities of nationhood, it's hardly surprising that European nations have little wish to reshoulder them. In essence, the lavish levels of public health care on the Continent are subsidized by the American taxpayer. And this long-term softening of large sections of the West makes them ill-suited to resisting a primal force like Islam.

There is no "population bomb." There never was. Birthrates are declining all over the world--eventually every couple on the planet may decide to opt for the Western yuppie model of one designer baby at the age of 39. But demographics is a game of last man standing. The groups that succumb to demographic apathy last will have a huge advantage. Even in 1968 Paul Ehrlich and his ilk should have understood that their so-called population explosion was really a massive population adjustment. Of the increase in global population between 1970 and 2000, the developed world accounted for under 9% of it, while the Muslim world accounted for 26%. Between 1970 and 2000, the developed world declined from just under 30% of the world's population to just over 20%, the Muslim nations increased from about 15% to 20%.

Nineteen seventy doesn't seem that long ago. If you're the age many of the chaps running the Western world today are wont to be, your pants are narrower than they were back then and your hair's less groovy, but the landscape of your life--the look of your house, the layout of your car, the shape of your kitchen appliances, the brand names of the stuff in the fridge--isn't significantly different. Aside from the Internet and the cell phone and the CD, everything in your world seems pretty much the same but slightly modified.

And yet the world is utterly altered. Just to recap those bald statistics: In 1970, the developed world had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30% to 15%. By 2000, they were the same: each had about 20%.

And by 2020?

So the world's people are a lot more Islamic than they were back then and a lot less "Western." Europe is significantly more Islamic, having taken in during that period some 20 million Muslims (officially)--or the equivalents of the populations of four European Union countries (Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Estonia). Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the West: In the U.K., more Muslims than Christians attend religious services each week.

Can these trends continue for another 30 years without having consequences? Europe by the end of this century will be a continent after the neutron bomb: The grand buildings will still be standing, but the people who built them will be gone. We are living through a remarkable period: the self-extinction of the races who, for good or ill, shaped the modern world.

What will Europe be like at the end of this process? Who knows? On the one hand, there's something to be said for the notion that America will find an Islamified Europe more straightforward to deal with than M. Chirac, Herr Schroeder & Co. On the other hand, given Europe's track record, getting there could be very bloody. But either way this is the real battlefield. The al Qaeda nutters can never find enough suicidal pilots to fly enough planes into enough skyscrapers to topple America. But unlike us, the Islamists think long-term, and, given their demographic advantage in Europe and the tone of the emerging Muslim lobby groups there, much of what they're flying planes into buildings for they're likely to wind up with just by waiting a few more years. The skyscrapers will be theirs; why knock 'em over?

The latter half of the decline and fall of great civilizations follows a familiar pattern: affluence, softness, decadence, extinction. You don't notice yourself slipping through those stages because usually there's a seductive pol on hand to provide the age with a sly, self-deluding slogan--like Bill Clinton's "It's about the future of all our children." We on the right spent the 1990s gleefully mocking Mr. Clinton's tedious invocation, drizzled like syrup over everything from the Kosovo war to highway appropriations. But most of the rest of the West can't even steal his lame bromides: A society that has no children has no future.

Permanence is the illusion of every age. In 1913, no one thought the Russian, Austrian, German and Turkish empires would be gone within half a decade. Seventy years on, all those fellows who dismissed Reagan as an "amiable dunce" (in Clark Clifford's phrase) assured us the Soviet Union was likewise here to stay. The CIA analysts' position was that East Germany was the ninth biggest economic power in the world. In 1987 there was no rash of experts predicting the imminent fall of the Berlin Wall, the Warsaw Pact and the USSR itself.

Yet, even by the minimal standards of these wretched precedents, so-called post-Christian civilizations--as a prominent EU official described his continent to me--are more prone than traditional societies to mistake the present tense for a permanent feature. Religious cultures have a much greater sense of both past and future, as we did a century ago, when we spoke of death as joining "the great majority" in "the unseen world." But if secularism's starting point is that this is all there is, it's no surprise that, consciously or not, they invest the here and now with far greater powers of endurance than it's ever had. The idea that progressive Euro-welfarism is the permanent resting place of human development was always foolish; we now know that it's suicidally so.

To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take in immigrants at a rate no stable society has ever attempted. The CIA is predicting the EU will collapse by 2020. Given that the CIA's got pretty much everything wrong for half a century, that would suggest the EU is a shoo-in to be the colossus of the new millennium. But even a flop spook is right twice a generation. If anything, the date of EU collapse is rather a cautious estimate. It seems more likely that within the next couple of European election cycles, the internal contradictions of the EU will manifest themselves in the usual way, and that by 2010 we'll be watching burning buildings, street riots and assassinations on American network news every night. Even if they avoid that, the idea of a childless Europe ever rivaling America militarily or economically is laughable. Sometime this century there will be 500 million Americans, and what's left in Europe will either be very old or very Muslim. Japan faces the same problem: Its population is already in absolute decline, the first gentle slope of a death spiral it will be unlikely ever to climb out of. Will Japan be an economic powerhouse if it's populated by Koreans and Filipinos? Very possibly. Will Germany if it's populated by Algerians? That's a trickier proposition.

Best-case scenario? The Continent winds up as Vienna with Swedish tax rates.

Worst-case scenario: Sharia, circa 2040; semi-Sharia, a lot sooner--and we're already seeing a drift in that direction.

In July 2003, speaking to the U.S. Congress, Tony Blair remarked: "As Britain knows, all predominant power seems for a time invincible but, in fact, it is transient. The question is: What do you leave behind?"

Excellent question. Britannia will never again wield the unrivalled power she enjoyed at her imperial apogee, but the Britannic inheritance endures, to one degree or another, in many of the key regional players in the world today--Australia, India, South Africa--and in dozens of island statelets from the Caribbean to the Pacific. If China ever takes its place as an advanced nation, it will be because the People's Republic learns more from British Hong Kong than Hong Kong learns from the Little Red Book. And of course the dominant power of our time derives its political character from 18th-century British subjects who took English ideas a little further than the mother country was willing to go.

A decade and a half after victory in the Cold War and end-of-history triumphalism, the "what do you leave behind?" question is more urgent than most of us expected. "The West," as a concept, is dead, and the West, as a matter of demographic fact, is dying.

What will London--or Paris, or Amsterdam--be like in the mid-'30s? If European politicians make no serious attempt this decade to wean the populace off their unsustainable 35-hour weeks, retirement at 60, etc., then to keep the present level of pensions and health benefits the EU will need to import so many workers from North Africa and the Middle East that it will be well on its way to majority Muslim by 2035. As things stand, Muslims are already the primary source of population growth in English cities. Can a society become increasingly Islamic in its demographic character without becoming increasingly Islamic in its political character?

This ought to be the left's issue. I'm a conservative--I'm not entirely on board with the Islamist program when it comes to beheading sodomites and so on, but I agree Britney Spears dresses like a slut: I'm with Mullah Omar on that one. Why then, if your big thing is feminism or abortion or gay marriage, are you so certain that the cult of tolerance will prevail once the biggest demographic in your society is cheerfully intolerant? Who, after all, are going to be the first victims of the West's collapsed birthrates? Even if one were to take the optimistic view that Europe will be able to resist the creeping imposition of Sharia currently engulfing Nigeria, it remains the case that the Muslim world is not notable for setting much store by "a woman's right to choose," in any sense.

I watched that big abortion rally in Washington in 2004, where Ashley Judd and Gloria Steinem were cheered by women waving "Keep your Bush off my bush" placards, and I thought it was the equivalent of a White Russian tea party in 1917. By prioritizing a "woman's right to choose," Western women are delivering their societies into the hands of fellows far more patriarchal than a 1950s sitcom dad. If any of those women marching for their "reproductive rights" still have babies, they might like to ponder demographic realities: A little girl born today will be unlikely, at the age of 40, to be free to prance around demonstrations in Eurabian Paris or Amsterdam chanting "Hands off my bush!"

Just before the 2004 election, that eminent political analyst Cameron Diaz appeared on the Oprah Winfrey show to explain what was at stake:

"Women have so much to lose. I mean, we could lose the right to our bodies. . . . If you think that rape should be legal, then don't vote. But if you think that you have a right to your body," she advised Oprah's viewers, "then you should vote."

Poor Cameron. A couple of weeks later, the scary people won. She lost all rights to her body. Unlike Alec Baldwin, she couldn't even move to France. Her body was grounded in Terminal D.

But, after framing the 2004 presidential election as a referendum on the right to rape, Miss Diaz might be interested to know that men enjoy that right under many Islamic legal codes around the world. In his book "The Empty Cradle," Philip Longman asks: "So where will the children of the future come from? Increasingly they will come from people who are at odds with the modern world. Such a trend, if sustained, could drive human culture off its current market-driven, individualistic, modernist course, gradually creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism--a new Dark Ages."

Bottom line for Cameron Diaz: There are worse things than John Ashcroft out there.

Mr. Longman's point is well taken. The refined antennae of Western liberals mean that whenever one raises the question of whether there will be any Italians living in the geographical zone marked as Italy a generation or three hence, they cry, "Racism!" To fret about what proportion of the population is "white" is grotesque and inappropriate. But it's not about race, it's about culture. If 100% of your population believes in liberal pluralist democracy, it doesn't matter whether 70% of them are "white" or only 5% are. But if one part of your population believes in liberal pluralist democracy and the other doesn't, then it becomes a matter of great importance whether the part that does is 90% of the population or only 60%, 50%, 45%.

Since the president unveiled the so-called Bush Doctrine--the plan to promote liberty throughout the Arab world--innumerable "progressives" have routinely asserted that there's no evidence Muslims want liberty and, indeed, that Islam is incompatible with democracy. If that's true, it's a problem not for the Middle East today but for Europe the day after tomorrow. According to a poll taken in 2004, over 60% of British Muslims want to live under Shariah--in the United Kingdom. If a population "at odds with the modern world" is the fastest-breeding group on the planet--if there are more Muslim nations, more fundamentalist Muslims within those nations, more and more Muslims within non-Muslim nations, and more and more Muslims represented in more and more transnational institutions--how safe a bet is the survival of the "modern world"?

Not good.

"What do you leave behind?" asked Tony Blair. There will only be very few and very old ethnic Germans and French and Italians by the midpoint of this century. What will they leave behind? Territories that happen to bear their names and keep up some of the old buildings? Or will the dying European races understand that the only legacy that matters is whether the peoples who will live in those lands after them are reconciled to pluralist, liberal democracy? It's the demography, stupid. And, if they can't muster the will to change course, then "What do you leave behind?" is the only question that matters.

Mr. Steyn is a syndicated columnist and theater critic for The New Criterion, in whose January issue this article appears.