Friday, October 03, 2008

Palin and Populism

She killed. She had him at "Nice to meet you. Hey, can I call you Joe?" She was the star. He was the second male lead, the good-natured best friend of the leading man. She was not petrified but peppy.

The whole debate was about Sarah Palin. She is not a person of thought but of action. Interviews are about thinking, about reflecting, marshaling data and integrating it into an answer. Debates are more active, more propelled—they are thrust and parry. They are for campaigners. She is a campaigner. Her syntax did not hold, but her magnetism did. At one point she literally winked at the nation.

As far as Mrs. Palin was concerned, Gwen Ifill was not there, and Joe Biden was not there. Sarah and the camera were there. This was classic "talk over the heads of the media straight to the people," and it is a long time since I've seen it done so well, though so transparently. There were moments when she seemed to be doing an infomercial pitch for charm in politics. But it was an effective infomercial.

Joe Biden seems to have walked in thinking that she was an idiot and that he only had to patiently wait for this fact to reveal itself. This was a miscalculation. He showed great forbearance. Too much forbearance. She said of his intentions on Iraq, "Your plan is a white flag of surrender." This deserved an indignant response, or at least a small bop on the head, from Mr. Biden, who has been for five years righter on Iraq than the Republican administration. He was instead mild.

The heart of her message was a complete populist pitch. "Joe Six-Pack" and "soccer moms" should unite to fight the tormentors who forced mortgages on us. She spoke of "Main Streeters like me." A question is at what point shiny, happy populism becomes cheerful manipulation.

Sarah Palin saved John McCain again Thursday night. She is the political equivalent of cardiac paddles: Clear! Zap! We've got a beat! She will re-electrify the base. More than that, an hour and a half of talking to America will take her to a new level of stardom. Watch her crowds this weekend. She's about to get jumpers, the old political name for people who are so excited to see you they start to jump.

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Thursday, October 02, 2008

Playing games

Begin typing here

The U.S. dollar is soaring (at least in relation to the British pound), the price of oil is plummeting, stock markets are calming in the eye of the storm, the big bad banks are going down like dominoes. At first sight, what's not to like about the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to rubberstamp the Bush-Paulson-Pelosi-Reid financial rescue package?

Better, from a strictly Democrat point of view, Nancy Pelosi and company are squeezing every drop of partisan advantage from the process itself, by which lame-duck Republicans are trying to fix a largely Democrat-created problem that Republicans like John McCain could see coming for at least the last three years, and actually tried to do something about, over Democrat objections.

(Most readers won't know this because they are not being told by the mainstream media: but yes, McCain began pleading with the Senate Banking Committee to act on huge irregularities discovered in the accounts of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, back in May 2006, two years after a Bush administration initiative to improve their regulation died in Congress. McCain's efforts were ridiculed, then stifled by ranking Democrats, including the committee chairman, Chris Dodd, the leading recipient of financial contributions from lobbyists for the very banks McCain said were "gaming the system." Senator Barack Obama is incidentally the second-biggest recipient of political contributions from these sources.)

Nancy Pelosi to the U.S. Senate, Monday, on the figure of $700 billion: "It is a number that is staggering, but tells us only the costs of the Bush administration's failed economic policies: policies built on budgetary recklessness, on an anything-goes mentality, with no regulation, no supervision, and no discipline in the system."

This remark was as close to the opposite of the truth as it is humanly possible to get. Even by the standards of politicians, it was shameful. That it was used by a politician who went on to pat herself and Democrat colleagues on the back for their selfless bipartisan efforts to rewrite the Bush-Paulson rescue proposal into a shopping list of Democrat attachments -- including e.g. Harry Reid's attempt to squeeze in an extension to the moratorium on oil shale drilling -- speaks to a profound unseriousness.

Ms. Pelosi's speech itself could not have been better designed to discourage Republicans in the U.S. House -- whom she knew were receiving messages from their constituents 10-to-one against the rescue package -- from voting for it. One must reasonably assume she wanted the measure defeated, by those Republicans, for political advantage.

The combination of great political cleverness with moral vacuity -- cynicism, in a word -- is a plague throughout the western world. The phenomenon is hardly confined to the left-of-centre parties, and yet neither is it evenly distributed. For cynicism of that nature requires domination of the news media. Supine media, in the tank for the Democrats, make it possible in this case.

But the problem transcends left and right. We cannot solve problems, in a "bipartisan" or any other way, when the cause of the problems is concealed from us, and false explanations are substituted, whether from malice or from ignorance. We can only compound problems in this way.

The various credit crises we face are real, notwithstanding the facetiousness with which I began this column. Anyone who doubts this should look into shipping news. All over the world, ships carrying vital commodities are failing to load and sail because banks are currently too shy to extend modest, conventional credit instruments. The cumulative effect of that, and much else like that, will soon bring home the reality of failing banks even to those who keep their money in pillows.

The only thing I liked about Hank Paulson's original proposal (of three pages) was its crispness and clarity. Take $700 billion of bad debt out of the system, let the government with its greater resources carry the risk on it, and maybe, just maybe, the banking system will right itself.

It was a clean proposal to pump water out of a foundering hull, and every complication added to it (including even the ban on short-selling) reduces its effectiveness.

Moreover, if the banking system recovered, and with it the economy that depends upon it, the government would have a fairly good chance, over time, to get its money back, as debtors recovered the ability to make payments.

The question should never have been how to encumber the pumping operation. Rather, it should have been, will $700 billion be enough? For that is the fallout from the subprime crisis alone, and we have credit card, auto purchase, and several other credit crises stacked up behind it.

And if it is not enough, what would be better? To let nature take its course, like a hurricane, and then rebuild from the ground up? Or try to rebuild in the face of the hurricane?

Ivy League America assumes the latter, Main Street America the former.

David Warren

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Putin and the Polite Pundits

On September 1, the leaders of the European Union, having already warned Moscow several times of its obligation to meet the terms of the cease-fire agreement with Georgia, held an emergency meeting in Brussels and decided to—issue another warning. If Russia continues its non-compliance, the leaders threatened, another warning may yet follow.

Such are the pitiful realities of international diplomacy, and of an all too familiar Western pattern of response to acts of blatant aggression by powerful dictators. It is embarrassing enough when governments, with responsibility for the security of millions, resort to such hand-wringing hesitancy. It is worse when analysts and critics who are free to speak their minds on everything under the sun start looking for reasons to avoid placing blame for aggression squarely where it belongs—on the aggressors—and instead strive conspicuously to spread it around among the bystanders and even the victims.

Such was the response to Russia’s August 9 invasion of the pro-Western democracy of Georgia by the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. Under the title “What Did We Expect?,” Friedman dutifully awarded an Olympic-style gold medal for “brutal stupidity”—stupidity, not criminality—to Vladimir Putin, the man who actually sent in the troops and tanks. But then Friedman quickly went on to confer a silver medal for “bone-headed recklessness” on Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, whose country suffered the attack. The bronze for “short-sightedness” went, needless to say, to George W. Bush (shared, retroactively, with Bill Clinton).

Friedman’s reasoning went like this. By trying “to cram NATO expansion down the Russians’ throats,” the United States had mortally injured the feelings of the former superpower, a nation still smarting from defeat in the cold war. As if that were not provocation enough, Russia now confronts the prospect of former Soviet republics like Estonia, Ukraine, and Georgia joining the community of liberal democracies, and has also been asked to tolerate an anti-missile defense system the Bush administration wants to install across Eastern Europe. Offenses like these, Friedman wrote, had been “critical to fueling Putin’s rise” to power, and they all but ensured a crisis like the one with Georgia. Friedman’s views were echoed by, among others, former Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev, who as much as told the United States it could expect worse if it undertook to provoke Putin and Russia again.

And in what had Saakashvili’s sin consisted? By daring to use military force to put down Russian-backed separatists in the breakaway Ossetian region, he, too, had supposedly compelled Putin to invade. The Economist, denouncing Saakashvili as “an impetuous nationalist,” did not shrink from calling his actions “foolish and possibly criminal.” Michael Dobbs of the Washington Post wondered how the Georgians could have been guilty of such a gross “miscalculation”; they must have known that Russian peacekeepers would be killed or wounded in the fighting, thus inevitably triggering a harsh Russian response. And so forth.

In the weeks after the invasion, one would search long and hard for speculations of a different and arguably more pertinent sort. Why, for instance, have former Soviet-bloc nations like Poland, Ukraine, and Georgia been so anxious to get into NATO in the first place—or to have a missile-defense shield installed in their backyards? Who were those Russian “peacekeepers,” and what were they doing in South Ossetia? How is it that Moscow was prepared to respond to the Georgian “provocation” with such massive force, and on such short notice?

We now know that Putin’s troops had been on the move along the border of Georgia and the Ossetian region for weeks; that the Russians had been handing out Russian passports to Ossetian “citizens” for months, and since April had been preparing local railroad tracks for the movement of armored troop trains; and that, by August 8, at least 150 Russian tanks were poised for action on the border separating South and North Ossetia. What the evidence suggests is that, far from reacting defensively, Putin and the Russian president Dmitri Medvedev deliberately aimed to elicit Georgia’s move into South Ossetia, aiming to exploit this as a pretext for wresting away both that region and Abkhazia to the west.

To be sure, no one, from Thomas Friedman to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to those European leaders meeting in Brussels, has any “illusions” about Putin. Almost from the day he came to high office in 2000, Western media, policy analysts, and politicians have acknowledged his multiple abuses of power, the corruption of his regime, and the spectacular failure of democratic hopes inside Russia. At the same time, however, and grumbling as they go, all have continued to acquiesce in the fact of Putin’s dictatorship over post-Soviet Russia and his growing encroachment on the rights and territories of the newly independent but still sovereign countries around him. Indeed, the transparency of Putin’s put-up job over Georgia, together with the West’s so-far supine response, follows a pattern of its own, and it too has been discernible from the day he came to power.

_____________


Vladimir Putin broke onto the Russian national scene in 1996, at the age of forty-one. A former law student and KGB professional, he had been the political protégé of Anatoly Sobchak, the mayor of St. Petersburg and a leading advocate of Western-style rule of law during the chaotic years of Boris Yeltsin’s presidency. Unlike many Russian politicians, Putin had lived abroad and could speak both German and English. Despite his KGB résumé, his early speeches were full of references to the need for democratic reform and for close ties between Russia and the West. When the faltering Yeltsin appointed him as his prime minister and successor in August 1999, it was largely in hopes that, as a lawyer with a Ph.D. in economics, Putin would carry out the necessary political and legal measures to correct the havoc resulting from the “shock therapy” of economic deregulation.

Little noted then or later was that Putin had gone to law school precisely in order to be recruited into the KGB. The secret-police agency, to which he would devote sixteen years of his life, exercised an enormous influence on him. Among other things, it bred a deep contempt for civil society and its governing norms; according to his biographer Richard Sakwa in Putin: Russia’s Choice (2007), he became convinced that, for all the agency’s ruthlessness and resort to systematic deception, the KGB was the only component of Soviet and, later, Russian society that actually worked and that enjoyed a sense of professional integrity. His entire political career may be seen as an extension of the lessons learned in those years.

This, however, was not how most Western analysts saw Putin when he assumed the presidency in 2000. To the Russian specialist Steven Solnick, for example, Putin was largely a transitional figure. He faced such enormous institutional constraints, including the legislated division of power between Russia’s federal and provincial authorities, that he would likely accomplish little or nothing during his time in office. While acknowledging Putin’s anti-democratic belief “that the needs of the state trump the rights of the individual,” and his “troubling” arrest of a Radio Free Europe reporter covering the guerrilla war in Chechnya in 1999, Solnick nevertheless concluded that the new president would find it hard to implement any truly repressive policy.

Stephens Holmes of New York University’s law school, in a widely reprinted essay titled “Simulations of Power in Putin’s Russia,” was even more dismissive of the Russian leader’s KGB past and authoritarian tendencies. Arguing against what he dubbed the School of Fear, Holmes expressed confidence that, Putin or no Putin, the Kremlin was simply incapable “of imposing authoritarian discipline on Russian society.”

In fact, however, the regime was already beginning to move aggressively in just that direction. Although Friedman would later try to connect this development with the latitude afforded Putin by the rise in oil revenues—“as the price of oil goes up,” Friedman would write, “the pace of freedom goes down”—Putin’s first crackdown on the independent Russian media went back to New Year’s Eve 1999, predating his assumption of the presidency and at a time when oil still averaged $17.00 a barrel. Then, in June 2000, came the arrest on trumped-up charges of Vladimir Gusinsky, the head of the television network NTV. In November of the same year, Boris Berezovsky, another oligarch and the owner of the independent TV station ORT, fled to exile in London, lamenting that “all the decrees, all the laws proposed by Putin are directed at again enslaving people.”

At the time, it was widely believed that Berezovsky, hardly a model citizen, was just another among the many disgruntled oligarchs—Yeltsin-era monopolists who had enriched themselves by taking over former state industries at bargain-basement prices and whom Putin was trying to bring to heel. But this was simplistic. Putin was not at odds with the oligarchs; they had been and remained indispensable to him. But he was bent on intimidating them into doing his bidding, or else replacing them with creatures who would. In Sackwa’s euphemistic phrasing, Putin wanted to open “a new phase in which the [Russian] administration sought to shape the economic sphere by sponsoring ‘national champions’”: i.e., those willing to play ball. The analyst Lilia Shevtsova of the Carnegie Endowment was more direct about it. “Instead of using the courts” to deal with those who might have broken the law, she observed, Putin was relying on “strong-arm tactics led by the MVD [Ministry of Internal Affairs], the FSB [the successor to the KGB], and the prosecutor general.”

The process of liquidating recalcitrant oligarchs reached a high point in October 2003 when Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of the mammoth oil company Yukos and Russia’s wealthiest man, was summarily thrown into prison—a crowning signal that Russia’s economy, like its media, would no longer enjoy an independent existence. Although the old arrangement of behind-the-scenes kickbacks and profiteering remained in place, the leading oligarchs were now Putin men, many of them former KGB and security-services people like himself. “As in Soviet days,” Sackwa writes gingerly, “law was used instrumentally.”

_____________

Still, to many Western observers, Putin’s authoritarianism, distasteful as it undeniably was, seemed a not intolerable price to be paid for Russia’s emergence as a stable society, one with which, in the phrase of the day, the West “could do business.” Moreover, it was possible to point to an important gauge of Putin’s success—namely, his popularity at home. Opinion poll after opinion poll showed that Russians not only endorsed his style of governance—a 2002 survey suggested 57-percent approval of press censorship—but, in sharp contrast with the mood of the Yeltsin years, felt a growing sense of “optimism about the future.”

No wonder, then, that Putin would win reelection in March 2004 with 71.2 percent of the vote (although two out of every three Russians had stayed away from the polls or voted against him). The speech that launched his reelection bid—“I am certain that only a developed civil society can ensure the stability of democratic freedom and the guarantees of human and civil rights”—pushed every sensitive Western button. Could it be that a new era was dawning after all? No one wanted to inquire too closely into what Putin meant by a “developed civil society,” or how he intended to get there.

For Fareed Zakaria that year, Putin was a leading example of “illiberal democracy”—i.e., a system run by a genuinely popular authoritarian. True, Zakaria admitted in The Future of Freedom (2004), “there will be absolutely no one left to check the Kremlin” if Putin were to continue along the way he was going. But at least he “want[ed] to build a modern Russia,” and if this succeeded, the country might yet “become a normal industrialized country with some of the liberal features” of a genuine democracy. “Perhaps,” Zakaria added hopefully, “he even believes that eventually Russia will be able to democratize its political system.” Only not yet.

James Billington, the distinguished Russian expert and former Librarian of Congress, was compelled to agree. Like others, Billington had plenty of doubts about Putin: the parliamentary elections in December 2003, he wrote, marked “a clear victory for the authoritarian-nationalist over the liberal-democratic impulses in the new Russia.” Still, that was Russia for you—a country that “would find its true identity,” in Billington’s judgment, “only by reasserting top-down central authority—what Russians called the ‘power vertical’—against the democratic trends that had been developing from the bottom up.”

Strobe Talbott, who had been the principal architect of Russia policy in Bill Clinton’s State Department, took a similar view in a New York Times op-ed piece on May 12, 2004. Talbott quoted with approval from Putin’s oath of office for his second presidential term: “only a free people in a free country can be genuinely successful.” Yes, he conceded, the regime was increasingly repressive. Yes, having largely snuffed out the opposition, Putin was under no real internal pressure to liberalize. But again it was those stubborn Russians—a people who “want to modernize their country, but [who] are determined to do it in their own way, not according to some Western formula or by Western standards.”

About one thing, observers like Zakaria, Billington, and Talbott were right: alternatives to Putin were few on the ground. There was a lonely figure like Garry Kasparov, the chess champion and democratic dissident whom Billington thought something of a nut. There was also a resurgent Communist party, which was threatening explicitly to turn back the clock to Soviet days. Even more menacingly, there were crude Nazi-style nationalists like Boris Zhirinovsky, whose party had doubled its seats in the 2003 parliamentary election. And there was the Rodina party, a Slavophile grouping advocating a sharp break with the West and the re-nationalization of the entire Russian economy. Putin may not have been an ideal leader for Russia by Western standards; but under the circumstances, he seemed a fairly balanced choice.

Yet as Billington himself was aware when he wrote Russia in Search of Itself (2004), the Rodina party was itself an artificial creation, its radical populist message having been concocted by Putin himself in order to split the vote on the Communist Left. Thanks to the help of such decoys, and to the elimination of any truly democratic opposition, Russian parliamentary politics was becoming a masquerade, behind which Putin’s dictatorship continued to consolidate itself.

Sounding his own hopeful note, Talbott ventured that perhaps a drop in oil prices, in tandem with “the logic of what Russians call ‘life itself,’” might finally force Putin to resolve the contradiction between his democratic-seeming rhetoric and his authoritarian politics. In fact, however, oil prices were about to rise steeply, from $34.00 to $61.00 a barrel by 2006, and Putin was already learning that, whatever Western leaders might say in criticism of his harsh practices, there was little they would do. To the contrary: the more he seemed to pursue a hardline policy at home, the readier the United States and Europe appeared to embrace him.

_____________

Back in September 1999, when Putin was barely a month into his first term as prime minister under Boris Yeltsin, apartment blocks in the cities of Moscow, Buinaksk, and Volgodonsk were rocked by a series of bomb explosions. Three hundred people were killed. Putin immediately blamed the attacks on separatists from the breakaway region of Chechnya in the North Caucasus and promised swift action against the “terrorists.”

By that point, public opinion had largely turned against the on-again off-again war that had been going on in Chechnya since 1994. In the words of Peter Truscott in Putin’s Progress (2004), people “couldn’t believe Russia would re-fight the first Chechen war, with the huge human and financial cost that would involve.” But that was exactly what Putin vowed to do—with the coming presidential election as his backdrop. A figure almost unknown to the Russian public until then, he was suddenly a person of high profile. To this day, theories linger that the FSB set the bombs in order to focus Russian public opinion on the Chechen issue, and on Putin as the nation’s savior.

More than 80,000 Russian troops poured into Chechnya in a full-scale invasion. Future historians may well see the assault on that province as the blackest of the black marks against Putin, and the West’s relative silence as one of its greatest moral failures. As documented by a handful of intrepid Russian journalists like the soon-to-be-assassinated Anna Politkovskaya, torture, beatings, massacres, and looting by drunken and out-of-control Russian soldiers were commonplace.1 By official count, 4,200 Russian soldiers were dead by 2002, though soldier’s rights groups and human-rights activists said the true figure was three or four times higher; at least 100,000 Chechens would eventually die in the conflict.

When public confidence in the war flagged again in 2002, a new series of domestic attacks reignited national hysteria. In October of that year, a terrorist managed to seize a theater in Moscow and hold 800 hostages. Then came the massacre at a school in Beslan in 2004. Each time, Putin gained new executive powers to step up the war effort in Chechnya. And he did eventually succeed in breaking the back of Chechen resistance—by, to borrow the phrase of the Roman historian Tacitus, making a desert and calling it peace.

Apart from some human-rights groups, the West remained largely silent about what, if carried out by the United States or a European country, would certainly have been branded as ethnic cleansing. Instead, the EU and the U.S. largely accepted Putin’s explanation that the Chechen separatists were really Islamic extremists, and that the war was Russia’s corner of the ongoing struggle against Islamist terrorism. Answering his critics in the West, Putin employed much the same vocabulary that he invokes today against critics of his actions in Georgia: what business does the U.S., a country that invaded Iraq, have questioning how Russia chooses to deal with its own internal threats?

Another card Putin was able to play to win Western acquiescence was his supposed cooperation in the war on terror. In this connection it is useful to recall that the Soviet Union had been a leading sponsor of international terrorism during the 1970’s and the heyday of the PLO. The prospect of Russia’s now working as an active partner in combating Islamic terrorism must have seemed irresistible to European and American statesmen and intelligence services. But a prospect is what it largely remained.

In reality, Russia’s role when it came to rogue nations like Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and later Ahmadinejad’s Iran was the exact opposite of what Putin sought to portray. Next to France’s Jacques Chirac, he was Saddam’s most reliable ally in the months leading up to Operation Iraqi Freedom. In the Security Council, Moscow consistently blocked Washington’s push for international action, finally forcing the Bush administration to move without an explicit vote of UN approval. In the light of later disclosures about the UN’s corrupt Oil-for-Food program, it is easy to appreciate what was behind this: fully 30 percent of the recipients on Saddam’s list of payoffs were Russian. To this day, Putin continues to oppose U.S. policy in Iraq, just as he resolutely opposes any firm action against Iran (one reason, incidentally, that he has remained popular with some on the European Left).

By the time his second presidential term started in 2004, Putin’s attacks on domestic opponents were turning ever more blatant and deadly. In April 2003, the parliamentary deputy Sergei Yushenkov, a leading liberal, was shot dead outside his Moscow apartment; the murderer was never found. In July, another deputy, Yury Shchekochikhin, died mysteriously of what seemed to be poisoning. Viktor Yushchenko, a Ukrainian presidential candidate who publicly advocated stronger ties to the West, came down with a similarly mysterious illness, but eventually recovered.

Not so fortunate was Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer and outspoken critic of Putin. His slow and agonizing death in London in November 2006 was the result of contamination by a chemical, polonium-210, well-known to Russian intelligence agents. This was almost certainly a case of murder, as was the killing a month earlier of the journalist Anna Politkovskaya. Her death, like Litvinenko’s, went officially unsolved.

Each of these occurrences duly elicited cries of outrage in the West, but little else. The general response seemed to be: tread cautiously, things could always be worse. When, in 2005, some made bold to call for Russia’s exclusion from the G-8 summit, Strobe Talbott warned heatedly that any such strategy would backfire. Turning our backs on Putin, he wrote, would be “a sign that the West is giving up on Russia” itself, and would further dishearten Russian democrats. Instead, the way to proceed was by means of “quiet calibrated democracy,” which might yet induce Putin “to reaffirm principles of good governance” and thus provide a way “to nudge Russia in the right direction.”

Talbott’s argument, like that of many others, rested on a simple proposition: for all his iron-fisted rule, Putin was creating the necessary preconditions to the country’s “evolution as an open society” by restoring national confidence and rebuilding the Russian economy. But was that true in 2005, and is it true today? A powerful recent article in Foreign Affairs by the Russian experts Michael McFaul and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss casts severe doubt on the claim.

Although the Russian economy did expand by 69 percent between 1999 and 2007, eleven of the fifteen former USSR republics did better, and only one, Kyrgyzstan, did worse. (Former Soviet-bloc countries like the Czech Republic and Poland did far better.) The driving engine of Russian growth, moreover, was not real economic output but oil and gas exports. It was somewhat like the case of Saudi Arabia: take away the petrodollars ($350 billion in 2007), and Putin’s Russia emerges as another Third World country.

Nor is it the case that Putin’s rule has created a more stable business climate, for Russians or anyone else. In 2006 the World Bank ranked Russia at 96th out of 175 nations for favorable investment opportunities—the country’s worst-ever showing. Putin’s steady threats to cut off oil and gas to his neighbors has led to a mass exodus of foreign investors. According to the economist Judy Shelton, who correctly predicted the economic collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, Putin “has yet to learn that capital does not respond well to extortion.”

What is true of business is true in other areas as well. Globally, in terms of rule of law, Russia ranks in the bottom fifth of nations (again according to the World Bank). In terms of overall governance, it ranks in the 38th percentile from the bottom. In the words of the British analyst Martin Wolf, Putin’s huge expansion of state power has resulted not “in an effective state, but [in] an overweening one.”

By the beginning of 2008, in any case, the idea that the West could continue to “do business” with Putin was seeming increasingly illusory. This left only one further justification for putting up with him: that his regime, however brutal and corrupt, at least did not threaten the stability of post-cold-war Europe. As Stephen Kotkin of Princeton assured an audience in February 2007, Russia’s foreign outlook was neither assertive nor resentful, and the country “is really only threatening to itself.”

Unfortunately, Kotkin spoke just before Putin threatened to cut oil and gas supplies to nations like Poland, and just before Russia launched an attempt to disrupt Internet service in the Baltic republics. But wishful thinking dies hard. This past February, responding to Martin Wolf’s dire portrait of Putin’s Russia in the Financial Times, the economist Vlad Sobell wrote: “I strongly disagree . . . that Putin is a ‘dangerous failure.’” On the contrary, “what is dangerous is the poisonous, but unfortunately now well-embedded notion that the ‘increasingly aggressive’ Russia is about to menace us.”

Six months later, Russian tanks rolled into Georgia.

_____________

How do we explain this long-running inclination (to put it no more strongly) on the part of knowledgeable observers to avert their eyes from the challenge posed by Putin and his regime?2

Part of the answer, certainly, lies in Putin’s skill at talking the democratic talk while walking the authoritarian walk. As an exercise in deceptive rhetoric, his two terms as Russian president were stunningly successful in conveying the impression that at some point he would deem it possible, for the future good of Russia, to relax his iron grip. And it was not just Westerners who chose to believe him or to rationalize his repressive actions. “The model for Russia in the early 90’s was Poland,” the Russian liberal Vladimir Ryzkhov told Fareed Zakaria in 1999; “now it’s Chile under Pinochet.” Ryzkhov, like Zakaria, thought Putin might turn out to be the Russian Pinochet, “a good czar.”

But was there ever any good reason to assume that a man whose every instinct seemed geared away from the values of a free society would willingly lead the way to such a society? In fact, the real issue may not have been excessive trust in Putin himself—which almost no one was guilty of—but an excess of distrust in the ability of the Russian people to make the transition to democracy. The possibility that Russia might have within it the moral, intellectual, and cultural resources to become a free, open, and stable democracy on its own, without the stern guiding hand of an authoritarian leader, has seemed, to many, wildly unrealistic.

Some have traced this supposed national resistance to Western democratic values to the country’s history and anti-liberal legacy under czars and Soviets. The same explanation serves, paradoxically, to explain Putin’s popularity. Why do Russians vote in large numbers? Not because they have a desire for Western-style democracy, but because what they really want is something that Putin supplies in abundance: at best, a kind of plebiscitary democracy, or what Zakaria calls illiberal democracy. In today’s Russia, elections provide, in that writer’s words, “a cover for authoritarianism and populism.”

And is the authoritarian version of democracy such a bad thing? Not in the view of observers like Zakaria. After all, they point out, Western-style liberal democracy is a messy and unpredictable affair, all the more so when imported wholesale into an underdeveloped or emerging nation—or one, like Russia, with an already long history of authoritarian rule. In such cases, liberal democracy becomes a vehicle for rampant corruption, for ethnic strife (as in India), for chaos (as in Russia under Yeltsin), or for the rise of “impetuous nationalists” like Georgian president Saakashvili. By contrast, the Putin model provides a single clear figure with whom we can deal, and on whom we can count.

This may be why, as Natan Sharansky has noted, “democratic governments across the globe, on the Left and the Right, almost always prefer the non-democratic regime they know to the democratic one they don’t.” But the fallacies underlying this line of thinking are many. In Russia’s case, one such fallacy is the belief that the problems of the Yeltsin era sprang from an excess of democracy—more democracy than Russians could handle. Actually, the problem was too few safeguards for democracy, especially in the form of institutions enforcing the rule of law and, specifically, the sanctity of contracts. It was precisely the lack of such institutional safeguards that enabled the rise first of the oligarchs and then of Putin himself.

Another fallacy lies in the notion that only certain societies are capable of achieving democratic breakthroughs. Aside from today’s Iraq, a striking counterexample is Georgia itself. For 70 years, from 1921 to 1991, all traces of an independent civil society in that land were stamped out by Soviet occupation. During the first half-decade after the collapse of the USSR, Georgia endured an economic meltdown and virtual civil war with its Abkhaz and Ossetian populations, laboring all the while under a Mafia-style regime as corrupt and narrow as that of any former Soviet republic.

Then, in November 2003, a band of reformers, including Mikheil Saakashvili, launched the so-called Rose Revolution, which kicked out the old regime and instituted a new direction. Observers like Thomas Friedman like to point out that Georgian democracy is hardly perfect. They are right. But it has been evolving steadily and self-consciously in a Western direction, and has sought to be included as part of the Western world through membership in NATO.

This is the self-same liberal-democratic government that many in Europe and elsewhere are evidently willing to see dismembered in order to avoid a confrontation with the illiberal government of Vladimir Putin. And herein lies the final fallacy—namely, that governments headed by a single leader who makes all the decisions are in fact easier to deal with, and by their nature easier to incorporate into a stable international order, than ones characterized by what Talbott refers to as “free-for-all democracy.” On just these grounds, Henry Kissinger points out in Diplomacy, some British statesmen welcomed Hitler’s advent to power in 1933. “[Hitler’s] signature would bind all Germany like no other German’s in all her past,” enthused British ambassador Eric Phipps to his colleagues in London. Five years later at Munich, Britain and France had the opportunity to test the validity of that bond. The lesson was a bitter one.

This time around, we have a chance to learn the same lesson once again—so far, without the high stakes that were involved in the 1930’s. Georgia in 2008 is not Czechoslovakia in 1938. Nor are we returning to the cold war. But the final lesson from the rule of Putin should be clear. When we back stability over democracy, we get neither. When we choose democracy over stability, we have an opportunity to build a foundation for both. That is now happening in Iraq, and until the Russian invasion it was happening even more unmistakably in Georgia. Our task for now is to make sure we don’t make the same bad choice again. Standing up to Putin, calling him by his proper name, would be a start.

Footnotes

1 A Small Corner of Hell: Dispatches from Chechnya (2003).

2 An important exception is Leon Aron of the American Enterprise Institute, author of a fine biography of Boris Yeltsin. The progression of Aron’s change of view about Putin, from cautiously positive to grimly negative, can be traced in the pages of COMMENTARY from November 2002 (“Russia’s Revolution”) to October 2004 (“Is Russia Going Backward?”) to December 2006 (“What Does Putin Want?”).


About the Author

Arthur Herman is the author most recently of Gandhi and Churchill: The Epic Rivalry that Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age (Bantam Books). His essays in COMMENTARY include “Why Iraq Was Inevitable” (July-August) and “Who Owns the Vietnam War?” (December 2007).

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Obama's Leftism

Introducing himself to the nation at the 2004 Democratic national convention, Barack Obama spoke not only of his black father, “born and raised in a small village in Kenya,” but of his white mother, “born in a town . . . in Kansas” to a father who “worked on oil rigs and farms through most of the Depression” before enlisting in military service “the day after Pearl Harbor.” What brought them together was “a magical place, America,” he said, adding, “I stand here today, grateful for the diversity of my heritage . . . knowing that . . . in no other country on earth, is my story even possible.”

Not only was Obama the real, living embodiment of America’s racial diversity. He was a dazzling presence, outshining the party’s nominee with his look, stage presence, oratorical mastery, and the brilliance of his rhetoric. Nor was that all. This avatar of reconciliation talked of transcending divisions not just racial but political and ideological. He spoke lovingly of country and movingly of God and family in a way that had eluded the Democrats since their sharp turn to the Left when the party nominated George McGovern in 1972.

In the speech’s highlight, Obama said:

[T]here is not a liberal America and a conservative America—there is the United States of America. . . . We worship an “awesome God” in the blue states, and we don’t like federal agents poking around in our libraries in the red states. We coach Little League in the blue states and yes, we’ve got some gay friends in the red states. There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and there are patriots who supported the war in Iraq. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America.

Four years later, Obama is the Democratic nominee, and even his occasional shrill attacks on his opponent seem to have chipped away little of the cornerstone of his own candidacy: the promise to bring us, all of us, together. Can he do that? Is he well-suited to raise the curtain on a new post-partisan, post-ideological era?

From his record in office, it would hardly seem so. Non-partisanship does not just mean Democrats coaching Little League, lovely as that is, but cooperating with members of the other party in developing compromise solutions to national problems. The Senate has a particularly rich tradition of such bipartisanship, but Obama appears never to have participated in it. On the contrary: according to Congressional Quarterly, which measures how often each member votes in accordance with or at variance from the majority of his own party, Obama has compiled one of the most partisan of all voting records.

Last year, for example, the average Senator voted with his own party 84 percent of the time; Obama voted with his party 96 percent of the time. In the prior two years, his number was 95 percent, making him the fourth most partisan member of the Senate. And not just partisan, but also highly ideological. In 2007, according to the National Journal, Obama’s voting record made him “the most liberal Senator.” Throughout his Senate career, according to Americans for Democratic Action (ADA), the dean of liberal advocacy groups, Obama voted “right” 90 percent of the time. Actually this is misleading, since ADA counts an absence as if it were a vote on the “wrong” side. If we discount his absences, Obama voted to ADA’s approval more than 98 percent of the time.

This touches directly on the question of what, beyond the platitudes of unity, hope, and change, Obama himself believes in. His voting record is one indication. Another is his intellectual evolution.

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Abandoned by his father when he was still too young to remember him and then sent at age ten by his mother to live in Hawaii with her parents, who enrolled him in a prestigious prep school, Obama spent much of his teen years searching for his black identity. Late in his high-school career he found a mentor of sorts in Frank Marshall Davis, an older black poet. According to Herbert Romerstein, former minority chief investigator of the House Committee on Internal Security, FBI files reveal Davis to have been a member of the Communist party not only in its public phase but also when it officially dissolved and went underground in the 1950’s.

According to Obama, Davis told him that a white person “can’t know” a black person, and that the “real price of admission” to college was “leaving your race at the door.” Perhaps influenced by this, he reports that at college,

[t]o avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists and punk-rock performance poets.

Despite Obama’s tone of self-mockery, the passage discloses the milieu in which he immersed himself. In this light, it is not surprising that, upon graduation, he decided on a career as a “community organizer,” even if it was none too clear to him what exactly that meant. As he confesses in his early memoir Dreams from My Father (1995):

When classmates . . . asked me just what it was that a community organizer did, I couldn’t answer them directly. Instead I’d pronounce on the need for change. Change in the White House . . . . Change in the Congress . . . . Change in the mood of the country . . . . Change won’t come from the top, I would say. Change will come from a mobilized grass roots. . . . I’ll organize black folks.

Thanks to a grant from a left-wing foundation, he was hired by a small group of white protégés of Saul Alinsky, the original apostle of “community organizing.” Alinsky’s institutional base was the Industrial Areas Foundation, which he called a “school for professional radicals” and whose goal he announced to be “revolution, not revelation.” As Obama himself would put it, there were “two roles that an organizer was supposed to play . . . getting the Stop sign [and] the educative function. At some point you have to link up winning that Stop sign . . . with the larger trends, larger movements.” In other words, “community organizer,” to Obama and his colleagues and mentors, was a euphemism for professional radical.

It was in the course of trying to mobilize churches for political protest that Obama met Jeremiah Wright. When the controversy surrounding the pastor arose this year, Obama denied being present when Rev. Wright delivered his most incendiary sermons, commenting that he was like “an old uncle who sometimes will say things that I don’t agree with.” But this was evasive. By Obama’s own testimony, the reason other ministers directed him to Wright was that Wright’s Trinity United Church of Christ was steeped in politics.

Thus, Obama writes that Wright had “dabbl[ed] with liquor, Islam, and black nationalism” before returning to Christianity and studying, among other things, “the black liberation theologians.” Whoever and however many these theologians may have been, Wright invoked only one on the church’s website. “The vision statement of Trinity United Church of Christ,” in Wright’s words, was “based upon the systematized liberation theology that started in 1969 with the publication of Dr. James Cone’s book, Black Power and Black Theology.”

What was that theology? Here are two tiny snippets of Cone’s thought: “Christianity and whiteness are opposites,” and “there will be no peace in America until whites begin to hate their whiteness.”* In addition to a cross superimposed on a map of Africa, the website declares: “We are an African people, and remain ‘true to our native land,’ the mother continent, the cradle of civilization.” It defines Trinity as, among other things, “a congregation committed to the historical education of African people in diaspora, a congregation committed to liberation.” When Obama joined the church in the 1980’s, it did not yet have a website, but he tells of a brochure that, while condoning the pursuit of income, warned congregants against the “psychological entrapment of black ‘middleclassness.’” The liberationist music was playing back then, too.

At Trinity, Obama attempted to enlist Rev. Wright in his protest campaign, and the pastor sought to recruit Obama to the church. Evidently both succeeded, though at the time Obama says he was so far from religion that he “could no longer distinguish between faith and mere folly.” But when he began to participate in Trinity’s services he discovered he was not unique in his ambivalence. Of the other congregants, he would observe:

Not all of what these people sought was strictly religious. . . . It occurred to me that Trinity, with its African themes, its emphasis on black history, [was] a redistributor of values and circulator of ideas. Only now the redistribution didn’t run in just a single direction from the schoolteacher or the physician . . . to . . . the sharecropper or the young man fresh from the South. . . . The flow of culture now ran in reverse as well, the former gang-banger, the teenage mother, had their own forms of validation—claims of greater deprivation, and hence authenticity.

The first time Obama attended services at Trinity, Wright delivered a sermon (it was titled “the audacity of hope”) whose theme was: “white folks’ greed runs a world in need.” Twenty years later, when it was revealed that Wright’s church had honored Louis Farrakhan, that Wright had traveled with Farrakhan to visit the Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi, and that in his sermons Wright had beseeched God to “damn America,” charged the U.S. government with inventing the AIDS virus in order to kill black people, and claimed that Israel and South Africa had colluded to invent an “ethnic bomb” to kill blacks and Arabs while leaving whites unharmed—when all this was revealed, Obama, under pressure from the Hillary Clinton campaign, declared himself “shocked” at Wright’s vitriol. But in truth not only was he aware of Wright’s views, they were what had drawn him to Trinity church in the first place.

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Obama left Chicago after three years to attend Harvard Law School. As he would explain, “I had things to learn . . . , things that would help me bring about real change.” After graduating with honors in 1991, he returned to the Windy City to join the small law firm of Judson Miner, an activist who had been attorney to Mayor Harold Washington.

Within three years of his return, he also became deeply involved with Bill Ayers, a former leader of the so-called Weather Underground. This leftist terrorist group, akin to the German Baader-Meinhof gang or the Italian Red Brigades, specialized in bombing government buildings. Ayers later wrote boastfully that he had personally carried out an attack on the Pentagon. Ayers’s wife and closest collaborator was Bernardine Dohrn, whose views were so extreme that they seemed to cross a line from ultra-leftism to Satanism. At a meeting of the Weather Underground, she hailed the murders then recently committed by Charles Manson’s demented followers. “Dig it, first they killed those pigs, then they ate dinner in the same room with them, they even shoved a fork into a victim’s stomach!” she exulted, giving a three-fingered salute to signify a fork.

After the pair emerged from hiding in 1980, a court dismissed the main charges against Ayers on the grounds that the government had used an illegal wiretap. He pled guilty to possessing explosives, but served no time. The net outcome inspired him to gloat that he was “guilty as hell and free as a bird.” Dohrn served seven months. Then they both went respectable, but without changing their views. Ayers posed for a picture stomping on an American flag, and in 2001 he told the New York Times: “I don’t regret setting bombs. I feel we didn’t do enough.”

The details of Obama’s association with Ayers remain somewhat shrouded because both Ayers and Dohrn have refused to discuss it, while Obama and his spokesmen have prevaricated about it. When, during one of the televised primary debates, George Stephanopoulos asked about his connection to Ayers, Obama replied:

This is a guy who lives in my neighborhood, who’s a professor of English in Chicago who I know and who I have not received some official endorsement from. He’s not somebody who I exchange ideas from on a regular basis. And the notion that somehow as a consequence of me knowing somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was eight years old, somehow reflects on me and my values doesn’t make much sense.

Later, Obama’s campaign manager, David Axelrod, added: “Bill Ayers lives in his neighborhood. Their kids attend the same school.” If this is true, Ayers’s children must be slow learners, since they are thirty-one and twenty-eight while Obama’s are nine and six. But Obama’s own reply, though less bald-faced than Axelrod’s, was thoroughly disingenuous. Thanks to the meticulous investigations of the Left-leaning blogger Steven Diamond (globallabor.blogspot.com), the story of Obama and Ayers’s collaboration has been seeping into the public record despite extraordinary efforts to seal it.

After escaping punishment for his crimes, Ayers received degrees in education and became an advocate of school reform in Chicago. In particular, he propounded a “radical” project in the late 1980’s that was inspired by New York City’s disastrous experiment decades earlier in “community control.” Ayers’s project was championed by a coalition called the Alliance for Better Chicago Schools (ABC’s); according to Diamond, one member of the “alliance” was the Developing Communities Project (DCP), the group for which Obama worked as an organizer. If so, then it is likely that the two met back then, since the DCP was a tiny organization and Obama was most likely its representative.

In any event, in 1994, when the philanthropist Walter Annenberg put up $500 million to help the nation’s public schools, Ayers submitted a grant proposal that secured $50 million for an entity called the Chicago Annenberg Challenge. The word “challenge” signified that the recipients were required to find double the amount in matching funds; this they did, disposing altogether of some $160 million.

The ostensible purpose of the project was to reinvigorate Chicago’s flagging decentralization project. Ayers devised a structure made up of three connected elements, of which the main two were the Collaborative, or operational center, and the Board, with overall financial control. Ayers named himself to head the Collaborative; Barack Obama, apparently by Ayers’s choice, became chairman of the Board.

So it is conceivable that the two met as late as 1994, but this hardly seems likely. Would anyone yield control of the purse to someone he did not already know well and trust thoroughly? And what exactly were Obama’s credentials in the field of school reform, unless he had been active in the ABC’s with Ayers in the 1980’s? At the very latest, the two must have met sometime after Obama returned from Harvard in late 1991 or early 1992, well before he was chosen to chair the board in 1995.

For the next four to five years, the two worked together to raise the matching funds and disburse small grants to local organizations pushing the reform program. It could only have been an intimate partnership. When Obama decided to run for the state senate, his first fund-raising event was held in the home of Ayers and Dohrn. In 1997, Ayers published a book about juvenile justice, A Kind and Just Parent, which Obama blurbed as “a searing and timely account.” The two also served together on the board of the leftist Woods Fund from 1998 until 2001.

This is what is now public about the relations between Obama and the unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers. There may be much more, so far successfully hidden by all concerned; but even these facts suggest that Ayers was among Obama’s closest collaborators.

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Obama’s turn to electoral politics signified no change in his basic ideological orientation. As his wife Michelle put it: “Barack is not a politician first and foremost. He’s a community activist exploring the viability of politics to make change.” (“I take that observation as a compliment,” Obama said as late as 2005.)

Obama’s target was a legislative seat held by Alice Palmer, who had decided to make a run for the U.S. Congress. She introduced Obama in Democratic-party circles as her anointed successor. (After a later falling-out, the two would dispute whether her support had amounted to a formal endorsement or merely, as she claimed, “an informal nod.”) Like others among his mentors or patrons, Palmer, too, was a radical, a member of the executive body of the U.S. Peace Council, the least disguised of Soviet front organizations. She had made multiple pilgrimages to the Soviet Union, and in 1986 attended the 27th Congress of the Soviet Communist party, telling the party paper on her return that the Soviets “plan to provide people with higher wages and better education, health and transportation, while we in our country are hearing that cutbacks are necessary in all of these areas.” According to a later story in the same paper, Palmer visited Moscow again the following year to attend the World Congress of Women sponsored by another Soviet front organization.

In his campaign for the Illinois senate, Obama was endorsed by the New Party (NP), a coalition of socialists, Communists, and other leftists. According to the newsletter of the local chapter of Democratic Socialists of America, whose members were said to constitute 15 percent of the Chicago New Party, “Once approved, candidates must sign a contract with the NP [which] mandates that they must have a visible and active relationship with the NP.” Apparently, Obama signed such a pledge. After winning the primary (unopposed because his lawyers had succeeded in knocking all three opponents off the ballot), he appeared at a New Party membership meeting to voice his thanks.

Entering the national political scene eight years later, Obama did not, to be sure, appear as a radical, but he still bore the earmarks of the world in which he had been immersed for twenty years. He called himself “progressive,” a term of art favored by veterans of the hard New Left, like Tom Hayden, as well as by old-time Communists. Early this year his wife Michelle, lacking his tact, would kindle controversy by saying that his success in the presidential primaries made her feel proud of her country for the first time. The comment, a faux pas that she was soon at pains to explain away, flowed logically from her view, expressed in her standard stump speech, that our country is a “downright mean” place, “guided by fear,” where the “life . . . that most people are living has gotten progressively worse.”

This year, Obama appeared before Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network (whose official slogan is “no justice, no peace”) to seek its support. The candidate praised Sharpton as “a voice for the voiceless and . . . dispossessed. What National Action Network has done is so important to change America, and it must be changed from the bottom up.” Given Sharpton’s long career of reckless racial demagogy, it might seem shocking that a mainstream candidate should be seeking his blessing, but in this, at least, Obama was not unique: all of the 2008 Democratic aspirants did so. He did, though, strive to separate himself from the pack:

If there is somebody who has been more on the forefront on behalf of the issues that you care about and has more concrete accomplishment on behalf of the things you’re concerned about, then I am happy to see you endorse them. I am happy to see you support them. . . . But I am absolutely confident that you will not find that, because there is nobody who has stood fast on these issues more consistently each and every day, than I have. That is something that I know.

As it happened, Sharpton, a consummate wheeler-dealer, kept his options open for a while. But other radicals, soft and hard, rushed to embrace Obama, often waxing rapturous in their support. Robert Borosage and Katrina vanden Heuvel enthused in the Nation that Obama’s was “a historic candidacy,” from which “new possibilities will be born.” Michael Lerner wrote in Tikkun that the “energy, hopefulness, and excitement that manifests [sic] in Obama’s campaign” was reminiscent of “the civil-rights movement, the anti-war movement, the women’s movement, the environmental movement, and the movement for gay liberation.” Most remarkably, Tom Hayden himself joined the chorus by breaking a New Left taboo against “red-baiting” and laying bare some of Hillary Clinton’s own far-Left history—this, in retaliation for the Clinton campaign’s revelations about Obama’s radical background.

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Even after declaring his candidacy, and despite a certain inevitable sidling rightward, Obama still reflected the presuppositions of a radical worldview. In one notable remark, he said of voters in economic distress that in their desperation they “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them.” Chastised for his condescension, he responded: “I said something that everybody knows is true.” This was elitism of a very specific kind—the mentality of the community organizer, according to which people in the grip of “false consciousness” need to be enlightened as to the true nature of their class interests, and to the nature of their true class enemies.

The same suppositions are again evident in Obama’s stances on international issues. Iraq, as he sees it, is only a symptom. “I don’t want to just end the war . . . I want to end the mindset that got us into war in the first place.” And what would that mindset be? In a 2002 speech that he frequently cites, he said the war resulted from

the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors . . . to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne . . . the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income . . . the arms merchants in our own country . . . feeding the countless wars that rage across the globe.

In this litany of global perfidy, the issues of Saddam Hussein’s murderous dictatorship, of American security, of the future of freedom, shrink to inconsequentiality next to the struggle of the oppressed against their American capitalist overlords.

When it comes to Iran, Obama has acknowledged that the regime presents a problem. But his actions—he opposed the Kyl-Lieberman amendment designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization—as well as his rhetoric imply that the greater danger emanates from George W. Bush (who is allegedly seeking “any justification to extend the Iraq war or to attack Iran”). Likewise on defeating terrorism, where he rejects the America-centric focus that Bush has given to the issue; instead, in the words of his aides, Obama’s main goal is to “restore . . . our moral standing”—that is, to put an end to our aggressive ways.

Even the events of 9/11 could not shake Obama from the mindset that the enemy is always ourselves. The bombings, he wrote, reflected

the underlying struggle—between worlds of plenty and worlds of want; between the modern and the ancient; between those who embrace our teeming, colliding, irksome diversity, while still insisting on a set of values that binds us together; and those who would seek, under whatever flag or slogan or sacred text, a certainty and simplification that justifies cruelty toward those not like us.

In this reading, the lessons to be learned from the actions of Osama bin Laden and Mohammed Atta are that we must accept multiculturalism at home and share our wealth abroad.

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In sum, Obama comes to us from a background farther to the Left than any presidential nominee since George McGovern, or perhaps ever. This makes him an extremely unlikely leader to bridge the divides of party, ideology, or, for that matter, race. If he loses, it will be for that reason (though many will no doubt adduce different explanations, including of course white racism, to which every GOP victory since Nixon’s election in 1968 has been attributed).

And if he wins? Without a doubt, it will be a thrilling moment. But the enduring importance of that landmark event will depend on the subsequent effectiveness of his presidency. If his tenure—like that of, say, Richard Nixon or Jimmy Carter—should end by inviting scorn, then it may open as many wounds as it heals. On the other hand, it is not unimaginable that he may rise to the challenge of the office and govern from the center, as he will have to do to succeed. This, however, would truly involve reinventing himself, a task for which his intellectual and ideological background furnishes few materials.

With his sharply partisan speech to the Democratic national convention in late August, Obama appeared to zag to the Left after months of zigging toward the center in hopes of winning over independent voters, which had stirred cries of alarm among some of his leftist supporters. Others among them, however, were and are nothing fazed. As the Nation’s Robert Dreyfuss explained, they “put their faith in the Senator’s character and innate instincts.” Heaven help us, they are probably right.

Sheryl Crow: Each Candidate Should Have To Debate Bono

"All agreed that the final stage of this campaign should be that each candidate should have to debate Bono."